Part of the Washington-Taipei-Beijing Relations Occasional Paper Special Series

While a conflict in the Taiwan Strait is neither imminent nor inevitable, it is becoming increasingly imaginable. As the United States grapples with questions of how to maintain deterrence to prevent a war, and how to win a war if deterrence fails, it views its alliances in the Indo-Pacific as a unique strength that can help mitigate China's geographic advantages. At the same time, the level of support these allies would offer is unknown. Nonetheless, the decisions that Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea make during a conflict over Taiwan would have enormous implications for their relations with the United States.

Part of the Washington-Taipei-Beijing Relations Occasional Paper Special Series

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While a conflict in the Taiwan Strait is neither imminent nor inevitable, it is becoming increasingly imaginable. As the United States grapples with questions of how to maintain deterrence to prevent a war, and how to win a war if deterrence fails, it views its alliances in the Indo-Pacific as a unique strength that can help mitigate China's geographic advantages. At the same time, the level of support these allies would offer is unknown. Nonetheless, the decisions that Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea make during a conflict over Taiwan would have enormous implications for their relations with the United States.