Asia Society Panel: A New Era for Taiwan- PRC Relations

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Cosponsored by: East West Center Association of N Ca, USF Center for Pacific Rim, UC Berkeley Institute of East Asian Studies, World Affairs Council of N CA

Date of Asia Society Event:  May 28, 2009:

Background of Panel Presenters:

Deputy Minister Chien Min Chao, of Mainland Affairs Council, Taiwan

Chong Pin Lin, Professor, Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies Tam kang University, Taiwan; former Deputy Minister of Defense, Taiwan

Lowell Dittmer, Professor of Political Science, UC Berkeley

Robert Kapp( moderator), President of Robert A. Kapp & Associates, Inc; former President of US-China  Business Council; Chinese History scholar and senior political advisor to hosting law firm

Introduction:  South Korea and North Korea straits is a contemporary flash point filled with tension.  By contrast, after a years of work, the China and Taiwan have relaxed tensions in the strait in recent months.

What follows are summary notes taken by Barbara Bornet Stumph, EWCA  N CA Coordinator,  during the panel discussion. Please write to the Asia Society for their newsletter summary if you have further interest:

I. Presentation by Deputy Minister Chien Min Chao-summary notes:

-This is a dramatic time for us. Within a year we have changed the situation between China and Taiwan to try to bring stability and peace: we see dangers and opportunities.

1. SEF/ARATS talks reactivated after four years hiatus

2. Trade: Made in Taiwan goods: 2008 gone up from $ 81 billion to $100 billion (40% of our exports go to China) We want free trade agreements with US/Japan

3. Beijing’s policy is a lot more rational and peaceful, reversing previous “wen gong wu he” policy

-We must engage each other due to number of missiles: 1, 400 missiles in PRC (2009 Pentagon figure); corruption.

-Our objective:  stabilization, normalization, liberalization, and internationalization  

-“No’s”: No independence; No use of force/ minimize threat; Maximize opportunities: “independence is not viable”

-Three joint plans: fight crime together; regular flights across straits; cross-straits banking; crop investments;

-We need “international space”: recent progress on Taiwan admitted into World Health Organization; we hope more international space will be offered to us in the future.

II. Presentation by Professor Lin- summary notes

-in the not too distant past, force against Taiwan was predicted: these predictions proved false in 2008

-Implications:

1. Liaison offices set up

2. Cross strait links launched

3. Taipei emphasized substantive policy

4.  Showed list of countries who abandoned diplomatic recognition of Taiwan around the world

5. DPP may reorient itself: for example, the Mayors of Taipei and Shanghai met last week; 55% of Taiwanese approve the move according to newspaper: is it a government organ? Perhaps, still, public is supportive

6. Cultural industry will boom on mainland with Taiwan playing an important role as catalyst- “not happened yet” ( I spoke with Lin afterwards: I think the Taipei, Beijing, Shanghai, and Nanjing museums’ cooperation to lend artifacts is a major happening in the art world)

7. “Taiwan’s democracy will gradually alter the Mainland” in both political sphere and economy leading to political reform; I don’t meet with any leaders from the Mainland who complain about Taiwan’s freedom of assembly and press.

8. First China leadership forum held in Singapore: returning visitors will little by little affect the Mainland

III. Presentation by Lowell Dittmer - summary notes

-There are regional and international implications for how Taiwan and China interact according to triangular models I have developed: Dittmer showed five sets of triangular relationships and how they have changed in the past three decades, involving US/ PRC relations with Taiwan, USSR, and Vietnam. These models included relationships based on “hate”; “stable marriage model”; romantic relations with a third partner hated by both; all three getting along…and so on. (graphic models shown)

-US drops Taiwan during the Cold War

-1981 Taiwan became sort of independent: varies over time

-US better relations between both Chinas than they have with each other

-Mid-1990’s Missile crisis: Taiwan and PRC relationship was rocky

-Now we see a rise in Taiwan exports to China; Taiwan imports 17% from China; rise in Taiwan imports from China;

trade used to go through Hong Kong: now direct trade has taken off

-Taiwan and China are separating economic and security policy from political

-Nationalism unleashed when there was a fall of Communism worldwide to replace Marxism and Leninism; PRC views Taiwan as a “province”: shows Chinese map.

-3.1 billion dollar US arms sales to Taiwan is part of equation between a stand-off of Taiwan and China

-Taiwanese still identify with Taiwan; PRC is downplaying the threat these days

emphasizing the business community

-Ma beat Hsieh in landslide in 2008

-Dramatic loss of support for Chen Shui-bian and DPP

-Most sensitive issues of security and sovereignty is postponed for now, but these will rise again in the future.

IV. Questions were fielded by the Moderator, Robert Kapp, who is quite knowledgeable.

Deputy Minister Chao said, “The most common question I get is, ‘Are you selling out Taiwan’s sovereignty for small benefits?’”

Chao: We know PRC has many problems; they want quick unification; not a priority/put aside independence: on back burner. I tell my DPP friends, “DPP is always there (Taiwan’s political party that stands for independence). Capitalize on your greatest asset: your independence. We have persuaded the other side: this is something to treasure(independence). We have accomplished this.”

Question:  How to be a mature, Western style democracy?

Robert Kapp

Question: Is a standard of measurement that you have to throw your past president in jail? Not a standard. 

Question: Is US foreign policy designed to be racist against so called ‘yellow peoples’?

No. Study the record in recent times. Voices of extremism exist in every society; these voices can blow a ship to one side or the other such as in the past. Regarding the Li Wen-ho case, the Lawrence Livermore Lab nuclear scientist who was arrested and tried: case was thrown out of US court. Government did not prove its case. 

 However, assault on classified US military documents is documented and well-known; “very high” theft rate, according to my friends who work in international security field. A cause for concern.

Notes, Respectfully submitted, Barbara Bornet Stumph