Summary of Barbara B. Stumph’s Notes on

“Panel Discussion:  The Future of Democracy in Northeast Asia”

January 20, 2009

 

Speakers:

Micahel Armacost, Stanford, former Ambassador to Japan and Philippines, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, Chairman Board Asia Foundation.

 

Fredrick Chien, Chairman, Cathay Charity Foundation; former Foreign Minister of Taiwan, 1990-1996

 

Han Sung-joo, Former foreign minister of S. Korea 1004-94 NE Asia Chair of The Asia Foundation, author. (written speech delivered in absentia)

 

Robert Scalapino, Professor Emeritus, Polit. Science; Founding Director, Institute of East Asian Studies, U.C. Berkeley

 

Jack Wadsworth (moderator), Asia Society Northern CA; Advisory Director of Morgan Stanley globally.

 

Speaker I: Scalapino:  (notes are paraphrased unless indicated by quotations)

What is our working definition of democracy?

  1. Maximum civil rights: speech, writing, political activities and so on
  2. Open, free, competitive elections
  3. Rule of law

 

Case of Japan:

-        formerly militaristic; took over Mongolia, Korea, parts of China; autocratic leadership

-        now, Japan has had three leaders in less than three years ; largely due to economic problems

-        traditional leaders: heredity, relatively aged; factional

-        no fear of collapse of democracy

-        Case of Korea:

-        elections: President Bok is centrist, conservative, free elections

-        economic problems; popularity declining

-        need economic reform

-        no fear of collapse of democracy

 

Case of Taiwan:

-        significant changes

-        President Ma is centrist pushing for economic interaction with China

-        fundamental to this case is keeping their economic space

-        somewhat isolated in international community

-        need proactive leadership who take risks

-        cross straits issues presents a challenge

 

Case of N Korea:

-        monarch at top; hermit kingdom historically—still practices isolation

-        military at top; self-reliance

-        military is formidable force

-        crucial issue is nuclearization

-        I see little chance of collapse

 

Case of China:

-        on our terms, China is not a democracy and not likely to become one in the future; continue to see one party governing

-        vast in size; heterogeneous; tremendous gains

-        economic growth

-        Beijing University between 1981: political changes extraordinary: more talk, more openness, demonstrations, tremendous nuclear program; space;

-        yet Party continues to confront criticism and independence of thought

-        Three semi-conflicting forces: internationalism, Nationalism, communalism (search of individuals for a more solid identity, religious interest is growing, ethnicity, local community)

 

Speaker II: Fredrick Chien

-        Democracies outlined by Dr. Scalapino will flourish but not a tranquil period

-        Taiwan: both a success and a failure

-        last year general election; two successful changes of gov

-        however people are drastically polarized between those who consider themselves “Chinese” and seek reunification with the mainland; versus those who consider themselves “Taiwanese”; the latter seek independence from China.

-        heated campaigns; respect will be given in the end

-        we were ahead of the four dragons of Asia: now economic slow down

-        PRC could not tolerate Taiwan’s leadership talk of democracy so pointed

-        1,300 missiles toward Taiwan: thus, investors are uncomfortable

-        long travel distance between Taipei and Beijing is now shortened

-        85.9% of people in Taiwan believe democracy is a good system: it is here to stay

-        global recession: not effected people devoted to democracy

-        still Taiwan has ethnic and political identity problems:

-        “There is no rational and serious discussion of politics”

-        Ma tried to settle problems: paying heavy price

-        In 1988 when I was posted in Wash DC for six years, 60% of Taiwan wanted status quo; 6% favored unification; PRC has caused us to be isolated to placate the military there; restrict NGO’s; alienate our people.

-        Must change PRC attitudes: gradually on the right track , if they give Taiwan breathing space in international community

-        corruption and bribery are still issues in Taiwan: former president has charges brought against him for tens of millions of US dollars: case is being watched closely

-        What can Obama do: important for Beijing and Taiwan to use a non-confrontational approach; don’t focus too much on elections: focus more on measures related to governance, judiciary, and social welfare.

-        Major task is to seek democracy in consolidation

-        Taiwan exports are down 40% over previous December

-        first test will be G 20 have middle tier countries

-        divisions among population in Taiwan: aboriginal peoples are 1.3% Han Chinese from S. Fukien speaking –Ho Long 60%, Haka 20%, late-comers after 1949: 18%

-        Cross Straits dialogues: first in 1993; 1195, talk in university; 2nd dialogue not held; since then, May of last year, resumed in Aug /Nov: now one hour 40 min between Taipei and Shanghai; 2 hours and 30 min. Taipei and Beijing;

-        Taiwanese want total independence from China; in Mainland, nationalism is high (no longer Marxism). Why not declare independence? Why commit suicide?

 

Speaker III: Michael Armacost

-        Japan has a vibrant free press; not under threat

-        Parties honor parliamentary golden rule (treat other party the way they want to be treated)

-        military is ruled by civilians

-        But Japan has one and a half party: without opposition, Liberal Democratic Party

-        aligned with Socialists to get a majority; now opposition party has a shot at getting elected

-        political neutrality of civil service is not tested

-        balance is skewed toward bureaucracy

-        Issues are N. Korean issue: US not taking Japanese concerns into consideration adequately

-        Obama is celebrated in Japan

-        China has a defiant attitude toward de-nuclearization: so allies must stay close

 

Paper by: Jan Sung-Joo

If you wish to read the paper by Jan Sung-Joo in its entirety:  write Barbara Stumph:  bbornets@yahoo.com

 

-        S.Korean democracy is “alive and thriving there”: “leaders are accountable and ultimately removable by a majority of the people” (Joseph Nye’s definition) in spite of violent confrontations in national Assembly; ‘Koreans have been taught since 1948 to love, fight for, and support democracy’; still a “tortuous road; elections can be seen as power grab”; deep divisions between haves/have nots and on issues such as N. Korea, S.Korea relations with US; need serious debate on constitutionalism, (limited government), personal liberties, majority rule, minority rights.

-        unthinkable that a group of military leaders could undo democracy there, or agitation by radical groups or ideological groups

-        S Korea is “muddling through” (a l Charles E. Lindblom)

-        financial crisis faced in 1997-98 and economic crisis facing now, Korean people will continue to strengthen democratic system and keep the faith in the system

-        There were several penetrating questions and further discussion of current economic crises in US and Northeast Asia.

 

Respectfully submitted,

Barbara Bornet Stumph