Pakistan Stability Critical After Musharraf

HONOLULU (Aug. 22) – Pakistan can remain a key player in the battle against terrorism even with the departure of U.S. ally Pervez Musharraf if the global community – particularly America – has the patience to let that nation find its own way forward, East-West Center Senior Fellow Shabbir Cheema said this week. Originally from Pakistan himself, Cheema worked at the United Nations for many years as an expert on democratic governance issues, including serving as Program Director of the U.N.’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

While Pakistan was, and is, a “pivotal state” in the region, Cheema said, the U.S. has had a short-term approach that overemphasizes the use of force and the effort to hold down Islamic militants in the “wild west” region between Pakistan and Afghanistan. That approach may be changing, he said, citing the likely passage of a comprehensive $8-to-$10 billion development aid package to Pakistan now before Congress, which would add an important component to the anti-terrorism strategy.

And the U.S. approach should change, Cheema said. Pakistan’s long-term stability is more important for the region than any short-term victory against Islamic militants in the border region, he argued. And curiously, he said, the key to stability is not only dealing with insurgency within Pakistan or on its border with Afghanistan; it is also in resolving the simmering conflict between Pakistan and its neighbor, India.

“The root cause of instability is the India-Pakistan conflict,” Cheema said. “Pakistan feels it is encircled and insecure” (with India unwilling to seriously discuss the Kashmir issue and Afghanistan increasingly warm and tilting toward India.).

But even with Musharraf gone, he said, there is a golden opportunity for the United States to influence prospects for better India-Pakistan relations. That’s because in addition to lingering positive relations with Pakistan strengthened by the war on terror, the U.S. under the Bush administration has substantially improved former frosty relations with India, he said.

“For the first time in 60 years, the U.S. has leverage in both India and Pakistan,” Cheema said. “It should use it.” Following the signing of a nuclear deal with India, the United States is in an ideal position to “use its influence in those two countries to minimize tensions,” he said.

While a patient approach could lead to a stronger and more stable role for Pakistan, Cheema said, the future holds many challenges. Among them:

•    Internal politics in Afghanistan, with the Pashtun regions favoring Pakistan and the Northern Alliance tilting toward India, threatens instability long after the Americans are gone.
•    Corruption and nepotism, driven in part by the lucrative opium trade in Afghanistan, harms stability and finances insurgent forces.
•    The “wild wild wild west” that is the Pakistan-Afghanistan border will not be settled through brute use of force preferred by the U.S. thus far, although use of force must be one of the components of the anti-terrorism strategy.
•    The importance of coming up with appropriate financial and logistical support for the social and political development of Pakistan. While the U.S. has had little problem offering short-term military aid, this longer-term objective has – at least until recently – been a tougher sell in Washington. Among the Pakistani people, this has created the perception of anti-terrorism as "an American war.”

“It’s not going to be easy,” Cheema said. “That’s because the U.S. has tended to look at its short-term interests, and successive Pakistan governments have not made the people aware of the magnitude of this menace, which is tearing the society apart."

Ultimately, he said, the success and stability of Pakistan cannot and will not be found in the actions of the United States. “The solution will be found in Islamabad,” he said.

This, he admitted, is no easy prescription. The successors to Musharraf are “politicians, not statesmen,” he said. For Pakistan to succeed, there must be reconciliation between the various political factions that have emerged in the wake of Musharraf, an “end to revenge politics,” and discovery of a way to make the battle against terrorists and Islamist extremists “a Pakistani war, not an American war,” he said.

This internal solution won’t be easy, Cheema said, because of the lack of internal political stability in the country. Political institutions are weak, and any external action that threatens sovereignty of the country will "destabilize the political process further."
But in the end, he said, there is no choice but to patiently work toward a stable and ideally democratic Pakistan.

“If Pakistan fails, it is a tragedy not just for Pakistan, but for the whole world,” he said. “Democracy gives us a chance.”

In the past, Pakistan has shown resilience in coping with crises. It should now decisively respond to the gravest crisis in its history, he said.

##

The EAST-WEST CENTER is an education and research organization established by the U.S. Congress in 1960 to strengthen relations and understanding among the peoples and nations of Asia, the Pacific, and the United States. The Center contributes to a peaceful, prosperous and just Asia Pacific community by serving as a vigorous hub for cooperative research, education and dialogue on critical issues of common concern to the Asia Pacific region and the United States. Funding for the Center comes from the U.S. government, with additional support provided by private agencies, individuals, foundations, corporations and the governments of the region.

Click here for daily news on the Pacific Islands.

Click here for links to all East-West Center media programs, fellowships and services.