Publications by East-West Center Authors on Population and Health

East-West Center Series

National Transfer Accounts (NTA) Bulletin

Policy Briefs: United Nations Expert Group Meeting on Policy Responses to Low Fertility

Titles from 2000 to present


Patxot, Conceptio, Ronald Lee, and Andrew Mason (Eds.). 2015. Exploring the generational economy. The Journal of the Econoomics of Ageing. 5:1-104.

Rindfuss, Ronald, and Minja Kim Choe, eds. (2015). Low and lower fertility: Variations across developed countries. Cham, Switzerland: Springer.

Rindfuss, Ronald R., Minja K. Choe, Noriko O. Tsuya, Larry L. Bumpass, and Emi Tamaki. 2015. Do low survey response rates bias results? Evidence from Japan. Demographic Research 32(26): 797−828.


Brown, Tim, Le Bao, Jeffrey W. Eaton, Daniel R. Hogan, Mary Mahy, Kimberly Marsh, Bradley M. Mathers, and Robert Puckett (2014). Improvements in prevalence trend fitting and incidence estimation in EPP 2013. AIDS 28(Suppl 4): S415–25.

Choe, Minja Kim, and Hyung-Seog Kim. 2014. Lowest-low fertility in the Republic of Korea: Variations by locality, 2000-2010. Asia-Pacific Population Journal 29(2): 5-24.

Lee, Ronald, Andrew Mason, and members of the NTA network. 2014. Is low fertility really a problem? Population aging, dependency, and consumption. Science. 346:229-34. DOI: 10.1126/science.1250542.

Queiroz, Bernardo L. (Specialist Guest Editor). 2014. National Transfer Accounts and the generational flows. Policy in Focus. 30:1-32.


United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. 2013. National Transfer Accounts manual: Measuring and analyzing the generational economy. New York: United Nations Population Division.


Bao, Le, Joshua A. Salomon, Tim Brown, Adrian E. Raftery, and Daniel R. Hogan (2012). Modelling national HIV/AIDS epidemics: Revised approach in the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package. Sexually Transmitted Infections 88(Suppl. 2): i3–10.

Choe, Minja Kim, Larry L. Bumpass, Noriko O. Tsuya, and Ronald R. Rindfuss. 2014. Non-traditional family-related attitude trends in Japan: Macro and micro determinants. Population and Development Review 40(2): 241-271.  

Fazito, Erika, Paloma Cuchi, Mary Mahy, and Tim Brown (2012). Analysis of duration of risk behavior for most at-risk populations: A systematic literature review. Sexually Transmitted Infections 88(Suppl. 2): i24–32.

Gouws, Eleanor, and Paloma Cuchi on behalf of the International Collaboration on Estimating HIV Incidence by Modes of Transmission (2012). Focusing the HIV response through estimating the major modes of HIV transmission: A multi-country analysis. Sexually Transmitted Infections 88(Suppl. 2): i76–85.

Stover, John, Tim Brown, and Milly Marston (2012). Updates to the Spectrum/EPP Model to estimate HIV trends for women and children. Sexually Transmitted Infections 2012(88): i11–16.

Tsuya, Noriko O., Larry L. Bumpass, Minja Kim Choe, and Ronald R. Rindfuss. 2012. Employment and housework tasks of Japanese couples, 1994-2009. Demographic Research 27: 705-718.


Choe, Minja Kim, and Lei Li. 2011. Estimating the effects of education on later marriage and less marriage in South Korea: An application of a mixture survival model with proportional piecewise constant hazard. Journal of Applied Statistical Science 18(4): 103–15.

Lee, Ronald, and Andrew Mason. 2011. Generational economics in a changing world. In Ronald Lee and David Reher, eds. Demographic transition and its consequences. Population and Development Review 37(S1): 115–42.

Lee, Ronald, and Andrew Mason, lead authors and editors. 2011. Population aging and the generational economy: A global perspective. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.

Lee, Ronald, and Andrew Mason. 2011. The price of maturity. Finance and Development 48(2): 6–11.

Lee, Sang-Hyop, and Andrew Mason. 2011. International migration, population age structure and economic growth in Asia. Asian and Pacific Migration Journal. 20(2):195-213.

Mishra, Vinod. 2011. Effects of population pressure on forests and grasslands in India. In R. P. Cincotta and D. Mageean, eds. Human Population: The demography and geography of Homo sapiens and their implications for biological diversity. Special issue of Ecological Studies. Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag.


Azim, Tasnim, Tobi J. Saidel, and Tim Brown (2010). Essential elements of strategic information systems to guide focused HIV responses in South and Southeast Asia. AIDS 24(Suppl. 3): S54–61.

Brown, Tim, L. Bao, A. Raftery, J. Salomon, R. Baggaley, J. Stover, and P. Gerland (2010). Modeling HIV epidemics in the antiretroviral era: The UNAIDS Estimation and Projection package 2009. Sexually Transmitted Infections 86(Suppl. 2): ii3-10.

Chen, Jiajian, Robert D. Retherford, Minja Kim Choe, and Li Xiru. 2010. Effects of population policy and economic reform on the trend in fertility in Guangdong Province, China, 1975–2005. Population Studies 64(1): 43–60.

Komatsu, Ryuichi, Ross McLeod, Swarup, Sarkar, Nalyn Siripong, Indrani Gupta, Viro Tangcharoensathien, Tim Brown, Tim, Jacques Jeugmans, Carlos Avila-Figueroa, and Rifat Atun (2010). Asia can afford universal access for AIDS prevention and treatment. AIDS 24(Suppl. 3): S72–79.

Lee, Ronald, and Andrew Mason. 2010. Low fertility, human capital, and macroeconomics. European Journal of Population 26(2): 159–82.

Mason, Andrew, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Ronald Lee. 2010. Will demographic change undermine Asia's growth prospects? In Jong-Wha Lee, Masahiro Kawai, and Peter Petri, eds. Asian regionalism in the world economy: Engine for dynamism and stability.Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Press, 70–121.

Ogawa, Naohiro, Robert D. Retherford, and Y. Saito. 2010. Care of the elderly and women’s labor force participation in Japan. In S. Tuljapurkar, N. Ogawa, and A. Gauthier, eds. Ageing in advanced industrial states: Riding the age waves. New York: Springer.

Retherford, Robert D., Naohiro Ogawa, Rikya Matsukura, and Hassan Eini-Zinab. 2010. Multivariate analysis of parity progression-based measures of the total fertility rate and its components. Demography. 4(11): 97–124.

Rindfuss, Ronald D., Minja Kim Choe, Maria Midea M. Kabamalan, Noriko O. Tsuya, and Larry L. Bumpass. 2010. Order amidst change: Work and family trajectories in Japan. Advances in Life Course Research 15:76–88.


Brown, Tim, Margot Fahnestock, Gayle Martin, Wiwat Peerapatanapokin, Dimitri Prybylski Amala Reddy, Jeremy Ross, Tobi Saidel, Nalinee Sangrujee, Chris Ward, and the A2 country teams (2009). From analysis to action: The A2 approach. Durham, North Carolina: Family Health International, East-West Center, RTI International, and Futures Group International.

Bumpass, Larry, Ronald R. Rindfuss, Minja Kim Choe, and Noriko O. Tsuya. 2009. The institutional context of low fertility. Asian Population Studies 5(3): 215–35.

Chen, Jiajian, Robert D. Retherford, Minja Kim Choe, Li Xiru, and Hu Ying. 2009. Province-level variation in the achievement of below-replacement fertility in China. Asian Population Studies 5(3): 309–28.

Choe, Minja Kim, and Robert D. Retherford. 2009. The contribution of education to South Korea’s fertility decline to "lowest-low level." Asian Population Studies 5(3): 267–88.<

de Lind van Wijngaarden, Jan W., Tim Brown, Philippe Girault, Swarup Sarkar, and Frits van Griensven (2009). The Epidemiology of Human Immunodeficiency Virus infection, sexually transmitted infections, and associated risk behaviors among men who have sex with men in the Mekong Subregion and China: Implications for policy and programming. Sexually Transmitted Diseases 36(5): 319–24.

Mason, Andrew. 2009. Economic crisis and prospects for the elderly in Asia: Sharing the pain. The Journal of AARP International Summer: 28–33.


Brown, Tim, J.A. Salomon, L. Alkema, A.E. Raftery, and E. Gouws (2008). Progress and challenges in modelling country-level HIV/AIDS epidemics: The UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2007. Sexually Transmitted Infections 84(Suppl. 1): i5–10.

Clark, Robert, Naohiro Ogawa, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Rikya Matsukura. 2008. Older workers and national productivity in Japan. Population and Development Review. 34:257–74.


Entwisle, Barbara, Katherine Faust, Ronald R. Rindfuss, and Toshiko Kaneda. 2007. Networks and contexts: Variation in the structure of social ties. American Journal of Sociology. 112(5): 1495-1533.


Brown, Tim (2006). HIV/AIDS in Hong Kong: Living on the edge. Hong Kong: Red Ribbon Centre-UNAIDS Collaborating Centre for Technical Support, Centre for Health Protection, Department of Health.

Brown Tim, N. Grassly, G. Garnett, and K. Stanecki (2006). Improving projections at the country level: The UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2005. Sexually Transmitted Infections 82(Suppl. 3): iii34–40.

Choe, Minja Kim. 2006. Modernization, gender roles and marriage behavior in South Korea. In Yun-Shik Chang and Steven Hugh Lee, eds. Transformations in Twentieth Century Korea. London: Routledge, pp. 291-309.

Choe, Minja Kim, and Kyung-Ae Park. 2006. Fertility decline in South Korea: Forty years of policy-behavior dialogue. Korea Journal of Population Studies 29(2): 1-26.

Gouws E., P. White, J. Stover, and Tim Brown (2006). Short-term estimates of HIV incidence by mode of transmission: Kenya and Thailand as examples. Sexually Transmitted Infections 82(Suppl. 3): iii51–55.


Brown, Tim, and Werasit Sittitrai (2005). Making the right choices—protecting Asian-Pacific children and youth from HIV. In G. Foster, J. Williamson, and C. Levine, eds. A Generation at risk: The global impact of AIDS on orphans and vulnerable children. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Chen, Jiajian, Minja Kim Choe, Shengli Chen, and Shikun Zhang (2005). Community environment and HIV/AIDS-related stigma in China. AIDS Education and Prevention 17(1): 1–11.

Diaz, Theresa, Kevin De Cock, Tim Brown, Peter D. Ghys, and J. Ties Boerma (2005). New strategies for HIV surveillance in resource-constrained settings: An overview. AIDS 19(Suppl. 2): S1–8.

Pervilhac, Cyril, John Stover, Elizabeth Pisani, Tim Brown, Ruben Mayorga, Owen Mugurungi, Mohammed Shaukat, Lu Fan, and Peter D. Ghys (2005). Using HIV surveillance data: Recent experiences and avenues for the future. AIDS 19(Supp. 2): S53–58.

Tsuya, Noriko O., Larry L. Bumpass, Minja Kim Choe, and Ronald R. Rindfuss. 2005. Is the gender division of work changing in Japan? Asian Population Studies 1(1): 47-67./p>


Brown, Tim (2004). Tackling the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Asia. Asia-Pacific Population and Policy. No. 68. Honolulu: East-West Center.

Brown, Tim (2004). The generation game: How HIV affects young people in Asia. In Elizabeth Pisani and Hein Marais, eds. AIDS in Asia: Face the facts: A comprehensive analysis of the AIDS epidemics in Asia. Bangkok: Monitoring the AIDS Pandemic (MAP) Network.

Brown, Tim (2004). What next? Epidemic dynamics in the Asian context. In Elizabeth Pisani and Hein Marais, eds. AIDS in Asia: Face the facts: A comprehensive analysis of the AIDS epidemics in Asia. Bangkok: Monitoring the AIDS Pandemic (MAP) Network.

Brown, Tim, and W. Peerapatanapokin (2004). The Asian Epidemic Model: A process model for exploring HIV policy and programme alternatives in Asia. Sexually Transmitted Infections 80(Suppl. 1): i19–24.

Chen, Shengli, Zhang Shikun, and Sidney B. Westley (2004). HIV/AIDS awareness is improving in China. Asia-Pacific Population & Policy No. 69. Honolulu: East-West Center.

Chen, Shengli, Zhengyu Xiao, Jiajian Chen, Shikun Zhang, Faming Gu, Liming Zhang, Lixia Mo, Minghua Zhang, Sidney Bohanna Westley, Miguel Babatunde Richard Savage, Pingan Liu, and Xingzheng Feng (2004). Report of survey and evaluation on HIV/AIDS prevention project [in Chinese and English]. Beijing: China Population Press.

Ghys, P., Tim Brown, N.C. Grassly, G. Garnett, K.A. Stanecki, J. Stover, and N. Walker (2004). The UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package: A software package to estimate and project national HIV epidemics. Sexually Transmitted Infections 80(Suppl. 1): i5–9.

Grassly, N.C., M. Morgan, N. Walker, G. Garnett, A. Stanecki, J. Stover, Tim Brown, and P.D. Ghys (2004). Uncertainty in estimates of HIV/AIDS: The estimation and application of plausibility bounds. Sexually Transmitted Infections 80(Suppl. 1): i31–38.

Mills, S., T. Saidel, R. Magnani, and Tim Brown (2004). Surveillance and modeling of HIV, STI, and risk behaviours in concentrated HIV epidemics. Sexually Transmitted Infections 80(Suppl. 2): ii57–62.

Retherford, Robert D., Naohiro Ogawa, Rikiya Matsukura, and Hajime Ihara. 2004. Trends in fertility by education in Japan, 1966–2000. Tokyo: Nihon University Population Research Institute, East-West Center, and Statistical Research and Training Institute, Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications.

Rindfuss, Ronald R., Minja Kim Choe, Larry L. Bumpass, and Noriko O. Tsuya. 2004. Social networks and family change in Japan. American Sociological Review 69:838-61.

Ruxrungtham, Kiat, Tim Brown, and Praphan Phanuphak (2004). HIV/AIDS in Asia. Lancet 364(9428): 69–82.

Tsuya, Noriko O., and Larry L. Bumpass, eds. 2004. Marriage, work, and family life in comparative perspective: Japan, South Korea, and the United States. Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press.


Brown, Tim (2003). HIV/AIDS in Asia. AsiaPacific Issues No. 68. Honolulu: East-West Center.

Chen, Jiajian, Chen Shengli, and Minja Kim Choe (2003). Who has correct information and knowledge about HIV/AIDS in China? In Shikun Zhang, Jason Hsia, and Lixia Mo, eds. Waking up: Reports on data analysis of Baseline Survey for HIV/AIDS Prevention. Beijing: China Population Press.

Chen, Jiajian, Chen Shengli, and Minja Kim Choe (2003). Who has correct information and knowledge about HIV/AIDS in China? Asia-Pacific Population Journal 8(4): 25–38.

Choe, Minja Kim, and Seung Kwon Kim. 2003. Factors associated with low fertility in South Korea and policy implications (in Korean). In Seung Kwon Kim, ed. Study on the development of population policies and programs in responses to low fertility. Seoul: Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs, pp. 147–67.

Rindfuss, Ronald R., Karen Benjamin Guzzo, and S. Philip Morgan. 2003. The changing institutional context of low fertility. Population Research and Policy Review 22(5-6): 411-38.


Brown, Tim (2002). The HIV/AIDS epidemic in Asia. Asia-Pacific Population and Policy No. 60. Honolulu: East-West Center.

Chen, Sheng Li, Shi Kun Zhang, Li Xia Mo, and Shu Zhang Yang (2002). HIV/AIDS in China: Survey provides guidelines for improving awareness. Asia-Pacific Population and Policy No. 62. Honolulu: East-West Center.

Choe, Minja Kim, Sidney B. Westley, and Robert D. Retherford. 2002. Tradition and change in marriage and family life. In East-West Center. The future of population in Asia. Honolulu: East-West Center.


Brewster, Karin L., and Ronald R. Rindfuss. 2000. Fertility and women's employment in industrialized nations. Annual Review of Sociology 26: 271-96.

Earlier Publications