Coupled Natural-Human Systems and Emerging Infectious Diseases
Anthropogenic environmental change and avian influenza in Vietnam
Project Summary
As integral actors in the coupled natural-human (CNH) system, humans are exposed to infectious diseases from each other and other animals. This project seeks to explore whether risks, and perceptions of risk, associated with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) caused by the H5N1 virus, as measured in terms of poultry deaths, can be associated with transitions that occur as societies evolve from one relative state of development to new states. The project will explore this question in the nation of Vietnam based on a 'lived' place-based unit of analysis. This is a novel way of looking at HPAI and other health risks like it, suggesting these risks are not an accident of time and place, but rather are the product of the modernization transition.
The proposal is constructed around the hypotheses of Wilcox and Gubler (2005) and Wilcox and Colwell (2005: 6) that transformations in ecological systems caused by multifaceted interactions with anthropogenic environmental changes produce feedbacks that affect natural communities and ultimately their pathogens, animal hosts, and human populations. Hence the research team will explore how measures of urbanization, agricultural change, and habitat alteration correlate with outbreaks of HPAI in poultry. The team will also address how humans perceive risk, an important element of CNH systems that has received little attention to date. The understanding of risk is relative; it cannot be measured independent of the cultural context in which it is perceived. Hence the project will explore the complex linkages that exist between people's perceptions of the risk of HPAI in poultry and the other ecological and social variables.
The project will engage a multidisciplinary team of individuals with strong records in research, application, and management in urban planning, land-use and land-cover change, biosecurity and waste management, perceptions of risk and environmental change, ecology, remote sensing and geographical data analysis, statistical analysis, and modeling. Because complexity is scale sensitive the project will collect and analyze data at national, commune, and household scales. At the national scale the team will test an a priori specific structural equation model (SEM) utilizing data on variables previously shown to be correlated with poultry deaths caused by HPAI. At the commune and household scales the team will conduct quantitative analyses using a type of multiple regression called multilevel modeling. At all scales we will develop and test models of hypothesized relationships between HPAI and urbanization, agricultural change, and habitat alteration.
Broader Impacts
The project responds to the need for developing basic principles and methods for understanding the mechanisms that underlie the emergence of new and reemerging infectious diseases (EID) and that involve complex interactions within and among natural and human systems. The work will add to the fundamental knowledge base of several interdisciplinary fields, including geography, ecology, systems theory, environmental science, and risk perception. The outputs will enhance the capabilities of researchers, practitioners, and policy makers at local, national, and regional levels.
Management Plan
Dr. Jefferson Fox (Principal Investigator), Senior Fellow and Coordinator of Environmental Studies at the East-West Center, will lead the research on habitat alteration and assist with the research on agricultural change. He will oversee the project and coordinate the work with co-investigators in Hawaii and Vietnam.
Dr. Bruce Wilcox (Co-P.I.), Professor in the Department of Tropical Medicine, Medical Microbiology, and Pharmacology at the University of Hawaii Manoa, is P.I. on an NSF funded IGERT Traineeship program in Ecology, Conservation and Pathogen Biology. Dr. Wilcox will supervise the IGERT student associates funded through this grant and work with our Vietnamese counterparts in Hanoi.
Dr. Durrell Kapan (Senior Personnel), Assistant Research Professor in the Center for Conservation Research and Training and Head of the Applied Evolutionary Ecology and Population Unit in the Asia Pacific Institute of Emerging Infectious Disease, John A. Burns School of Medicine, Univ. of Hawaii, will assist Dr. Wilcox in supervising the IGERT student affiliates.
Dr. Tran Duc Vien (Senior Personnel), Rector Hanoi University of Agriculture, will supervise the work of our Vietnamese counterparts and assist Dr. Fox in managing the project. Drs. Tran Duc Vien and Jefferson Fox have worked together on collaborative projects since 1997.
Dr. Nguyen Huu Nam (Senior Personnel), Dean of Veterinary Medicine Faculty, Hanoi University of Agriculture, will supervise the 10 Vietnamese enumerators hired to conduct by Hanoi University of Agriculture to conduct household survey in 1080 households.
Dr. Nguyn Huu Nam (Senior Personnel), Lecturer, Hanoi University of Agriculture, will assist Dr. Nguyen Nam in supervising the enumerators.
Dr. Jim Spencer (Co-P.I.), Associate Professor in Urban and Regional Planning and Director of Globalization Research Center at the University of Hawaii Manoa, will lead the research on urbanization and peri-urbanization.
Dr. Sumeet Saksena (Co-PI.), Fellow at the East-West Center, will lead the research on agricultural change.
Dr. Melissa Finucane (Co-P.I.), Senior Fellow at the East-West Center, will lead the research on perceptions of and responses to risk. She will also supervise the management and analysis of the household survey data in collaboration with Dr. Ian Pagano.
Dr. Ian Pagano (Senior Personnel), Biostatistician in Cancer Research Center at the University of Hawaii, will advise on and lead the quantitative analysis conducted during the project.
Dr. Zhe Li (Senior Personnel), Spatial Technology Specialist at the East-West Center will manage the spatial database, manage and analyze remotely sensed images, and lead the analysis of spatial data. He will collaborate with Drs. Finucane and Pagano on managing/incorporating the household data into the overall database.
Dr. Michael Epprecht (Senior Personnel), Research Scientist, Swiss National Center of Competence in Research, is based on Hanoi. He will lead the collection, management, and analysis of spatial datasets in Vietnam. He will coordinate with Drs. Fox and Li.
Scientists and students from the East-West Center, the University of Hawaii, and Hanoi University of Agriculture will participate in the project. More than ten staff members, including research scientists and graduate students will be training in data collection and analysis methods.
Related Staff
Finucane, Melissa L.Fox, Jefferson M.
Lewis, Nancy Davis
Li, Zhe
Saksena, Sumeet
