Issues Concerning the Two Koreas and Northeast Asia

The Korean Peninsula has reached a historic turning point. On February 13, 2007, the six countries of the region signed an agreement on the dismantlement of the North Korean nuclear program. The agreement includes the disablement of the North’s nuclear program, energy supply to the North, and normalization of diplomatic relations between Washington and Pyongyang and Tokyo and Pyongyang. If the Six-Party Talks achieve the goal of resolving the North Korean nuclear issue and establishing peace in the Korean Peninsula, they will not only prove the success of a multilateral approach to the North Korean security crisis but also highlight the potential success of a multilateral security dialogue in Northeast Asia. On the other hand, the failure of the talks may result in increased tensions in the Northeast Asia region as a whole. The February 13 agreement does not mention nuclear warheads or the North’s procession of weapons-grade plutonium. There is no definitive evidence that Kim Jong Il has made a strategic decision to give up a nuclear weapons program and pursue a national strategy of reform and opening. Thus, the developments in the peninsula continue to be of great concern. At the moment, it is unclear in which direction North Korea problem is headed— towards peaceful resolution or stalemate.

There are many questions to be explored. Will Pyongyang give up the nuclear program it regards as the ultimate guarantor for its survival? Will it shift its priority from security to economy and pursue a policy of reform and opening? If the United States normalizes relations with North Korea, what are the implications for the US-South Korea alliance and the regional order in Northeast Asia? Will the improvement of inter-Korean relations and the process of reunification be accelerated? More pessimistically, what will happen if the North Korean nuclear issue reaches a stalemate? Will Washington return to a hard-line position and will the international community adopt stronger sanctions against the North? Will Seoul and Tokyo consider developing their own nuclear weapons? How will a nuclear armed North Korea affect the US-South Korea security alliance, Japanese security strategy, and the security order of Northeast Asia?

The Korean Peninsula is pivotal to the security of East Asia; few issues have greater inherent potential to shape politics, economics, and security within the region than the North Korean nuclear issue. Thus, the POSCO Visiting Fellowship will focus on the following issues:

The current state and prospects of the North Korean economy
North Korea’s survival strategy including military and foreign policy
North Korea’s reform and opening
Prospects for the Six-Party Talks
Inter-Korean relations, their implications for the US-South Korea alliance, and regional security order
U.S.-North Korea relations
Japan-North Korea relations