Tim Brown

Senior Fellow, Research Program
tim [at] hawaii.edu
PhD, physics, University of Hawaii
Area of Expertise: 

Infectious disease modeling and policy analysis with an emphasis on strengthening national HIV responses, reducing HIV impacts and maximizing the returns on HIV investments; risk behaviors and epidemiology of HIV in Asia and the Pacific; public policy for HIV/AIDS prevention, care and treatment; International collaboration on health issues; responses to COVID-19 in Hawaii.

Dr. Brown is a Senior Fellow in the Research Program at East-West Center where he directs a small team of epidemiologists and programmers in developing and applying tools for HIV modeling and analysis. He works closely with UNAIDS, the Global Fund, Avenir Health and national partners throughout Asia to improve national responses to HIV epidemics and ensure available resources are invested to produce the greatest benefits. He is a member of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modeling and Projection, an advisor to UNAIDS and the Global Fund on HIV modeling and evaluation issues, and an advisor to the Scientific Committee on AIDS and STD in Hong Kong. Before joining the Center, he was formerly assistant professor in electrical engineering, University of Hawai'i; adjunct assistant professor in the Program on Computing, Department of Mathematics, University of California at Los Angeles; and applications group manager, AMETEK Computer Research Division, Pasadena.

Consultancies: Joint United Nations Programme on AIDS, World Health Organization, Save the Children (UK), United Nations Development Programme, and Hong Kong Department of Health.

Professional honors: Research grants from UNAIDS, the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, and Avenir Health.

Related publications

Derauf, David, F. DeWolfe Miller, and Tim Brown (2020). The fierce urgency of now—engaging Pacific Islander communities in Hawaii to contain Covid-19. East-West Wire. Honolulu, HI: East-West Center.

Brown, Tim, and Wiwat Peerapatanapokin (2019). Evolving HIV epidemics: The urgent need to refocus on populations with risk. Current Opinion in HIV and AIDS 14:337–53. doi: 10.1097/COH.0000000000000571.

Brown, Tim, and Wiwat Peerapatanapokin (2019). HIV/AIDS in Asia: We need to keep the focus on key population groups. East-West Wire. Honolulu, HI: East-West Center.

Eaton Jeffrey W., Tim Brown, Robert Puckett,  Robert Glaubius, Kennedy Mutai, Le Bao, Joshua A Salomon, John Stover, Mary Mahy, and Timothy B Hallett (2019). The Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model and the R-Hybrid Model: New tools for estimating HIV incidence trends in Sub-Saharan Africa. AIDS 33(Suppl3): S235–S244. DOI: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000002437.

Mahy, Mary, Tim Brown, John Stover, Neff Walker, Karen Stanecki, Wilford Kirungi, Txema Garcia-Calleja, and Peter D Ghys  (2017). Producing HIV estimates: From global advocacy to country planning and impact measurement. Global Health Action 10:1291169. DOI: 10.1080/16549716.2017.1291169.

Niu, Xiaoyue, Amy Zhang, Tim Brown, Robert Puckett, Mary Mahy, and Le Bao (2017). Incorporation of hierarchical structure into estimation and projection package fitting with examples of estimating subnational HIV/AIDS dynamics. AIDS 31(Suppl1): S51-S59. DOI: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000001426.

Stover, John, Tim Brown, Robert Puckett, and Wewat Peerapatanapokin (2017). Updates to the Spectrum/Estimations and Projections Package model for estimating trends and current values for key HIV indicators. AIDS 31(Suppl1): S5-S11. DOI: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000001322.

Brown, Tim, Le Bao, Jeffrey W. Eaton, Daniel R. Hogan, Mary Mahy, Kimberly Marsh, Bradley M. Mathers, and Robert Puckett (2014). Improvements in prevalence trend fitting and incidence estimation in EPP 2013. AIDS 28(Suppl 4): S415–25.

Hallett, Timothy B., Basia Zaba, John Stover, Tim Brown, Emma Slaymaker, Simon Gregson, David P Wilson, Kelsey K Case, and UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections. (2014). Embracing different approaches to estimating HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality. AIDS 28(Suppl4): S523-532. DOI: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000000488.

Bao, Le, Joshua A. Salomon, Tim Brown, Adrian E. Raftery, and Daniel R. Hogan (2012). Modelling national HIV/AIDS epidemics: Revised approach in the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package. Sexually Transmitted Infections 88(Suppl. 2): i3–10.

Fazito, Erika, Paloma Cuchi, Mary Mahy, and Tim Brown (2012). Analysis of duration of risk behavior for most at-risk populations: A systematic literature review. Sexually Transmitted Infections 88(Suppl. 2): i24–32.

Gouws, Eleanor, and Paloma Cuchi on behalf of the International Collaboration on Estimating HIV Incidence by Modes of Transmission (2012). Focusing the HIV response through estimating the major modes of HIV transmission: A multi-country analysis. Sexually Transmitted Infections 88(Suppl. 2): i76–85.

Stover, John, Tim Brown, and Milly Marston (2012). Updates to the Spectrum/EPP Model to estimate HIV trends for women and children. Sexually Transmitted Infections 2012(88): i11–16.

Azim, Tasnim, Tobi J. Saidel, and Tim Brown (2010). Essential elements of strategic information systems to guide focused HIV responses in South and Southeast Asia. AIDS 24(Suppl. 3): S54–61.

Brown, Tim, L. Bao, A. Raftery, J. Salomon, R. Baggaley, J. Stover, and P. Gerland (2010). Modeling HIV epidemics in the antiretroviral era: The UNAIDS Estimation and Projection package 2009. Sexually Transmitted Infections 86(Suppl. 2): ii3-10.

Komatsu, Ryuichi, Ross McLeod, Swarup, Sarkar, Nalyn Siripong, Indrani Gupta, Viro Tangcharoensathien, Tim Brown, Tim, Jacques Jeugmans, Carlos Avila-Figueroa, and Rifat Atun (2010). Asia can afford universal access for AIDS prevention and treatment. AIDS 24(Suppl. 3): S72–79.

Brown, Tim, Margot Fahnestock, Gayle Martin, Wiwat Peerapatanapokin, Dimitri Prybylski Amala Reddy, Jeremy Ross, Tobi Saidel, Nalinee Sangrujee, Chris Ward, and the A2 country teams (2009). From analysis to action: The A2 approach. Durham, North Carolina: Family Health International, East-West Center, RTI International, and Futures Group International.

de Lind van Wijngaarden, Jan W., Tim Brown, Philippe Girault, Swarup Sarkar, and Frits van Griensven (2009). The Epidemiology of Human Immunodeficiency Virus infection, sexually transmitted infections, and associated risk behaviors among men who have sex with men in the Mekong Subregion and China: Implications for policy and programming. Sexually Transmitted Diseases 36(5): 319–24.

Brown, Tim, J.A. Salomon, L. Alkema, A.E. Raftery, and E. Gouws (2008). Progress and challenges in modelling country-level HIV/AIDS epidemics: The UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2007. Sexually Transmitted Infections 84(Suppl. 1): i5–10.

Brown, Tim (2006). HIV/AIDS in Hong Kong: Living on the edge. Hong Kong: Red Ribbon Centre-UNAIDS Collaborating Centre for Technical Support, Centre for Health Protection, Department of Health.

Brown Tim, N. Grassly, G. Garnett, and K. Stanecki (2006). Improving projections at the country level: The UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package 2005. Sexually Transmitted Infections 82(Suppl. 3): iii34–40.

Gouws E., P. White, J. Stover, and Tim Brown (2006). Short-term estimates of HIV incidence by mode of transmission: Kenya and Thailand as examples. Sexually Transmitted Infections 82(Suppl. 3): iii51–55.

Brown, Tim, and Werasit Sittitrai (2005). Making the right choices—protecting Asian-Pacific children and youth from HIV. In G. Foster, J. Williamson, and C. Levine, eds. A Generation at risk: The global impact of AIDS on orphans and vulnerable children. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Chen, Jiajian, Minja Kim Choe, Shengli Chen, and Shikun Zhang (2005). Community environment and HIV/AIDS-related stigma in China. AIDS Education and Prevention 17(1): 1–11.

Diaz, Theresa, Kevin De Cock, Tim Brown, Peter D. Ghys, and J. Ties Boerma (2005). New strategies for HIV surveillance in resource-constrained settings: An overview. AIDS 19(Suppl. 2): S1–8.

Pervilhac, Cyril, John Stover, Elizabeth Pisani, Tim Brown, Ruben Mayorga, Owen Mugurungi, Mohammed Shaukat, Lu Fan, and Peter D. Ghys (2005). Using HIV surveillance data: Recent experiences and avenues for the future. AIDS 19(Supp. 2): S53–58.

Brown, Tim (2004). Tackling the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Asia. Asia-Pacific Population and Policy. No. 68. Honolulu: East-West Center.

Brown, Tim (2004). The generation game: How HIV affects young people in Asia. In Elizabeth Pisani and Hein Marais, eds. AIDS in Asia: Face the facts: A comprehensive analysis of the AIDS epidemics in Asia. Bangkok: Monitoring the AIDS Pandemic (MAP) Network.

Brown, Tim (2004). What next? Epidemic dynamics in the Asian context. In Elizabeth Pisani and Hein Marais, eds. AIDS in Asia: Face the facts: A comprehensive analysis of the AIDS epidemics in Asia. Bangkok: Monitoring the AIDS Pandemic (MAP) Network.

Brown, Tim, and W. Peerapatanapokin (2004). The Asian Epidemic Model: A process model for exploring HIV policy and programme alternatives in Asia. Sexually Transmitted Infections 80(Suppl. 1): i19–24.

Chen, Shengli, Zhang Shikun, and Sidney B. Westley (2004). HIV/AIDS awareness is improving in China. Asia-Pacific Population & Policy No. 69. Honolulu: East-West Center.

Chen, Shengli, Zhengyu Xiao, Jiajian Chen, Shikun Zhang, Faming Gu, Liming Zhang, Lixia Mo, Minghua Zhang, Sidney Bohanna Westley, Miguel Babatunde Richard Savage, Pingan Liu, and Xingzheng Feng (2004). Report of survey and evaluation on HIV/AIDS prevention project [in Chinese and English]. Beijing: China Population Press.

Ghys, P., Tim Brown, N.C. Grassly, G. Garnett, K.A. Stanecki, J. Stover, and N. Walker (2004). The UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package: A software package to estimate and project national HIV epidemics. Sexually Transmitted Infections 80(Suppl. 1): i5–9.

Grassly, N.C., M. Morgan, N. Walker, G. Garnett, A. Stanecki, J. Stover, Tim Brown, and P.D. Ghys (2004). Uncertainty in estimates of HIV/AIDS: The estimation and application of plausibility bounds. Sexually Transmitted Infections 80(Suppl. 1): i31–38.

Mills, S., T. Saidel, R. Magnani, and Tim Brown (2004). Surveillance and modeling of HIV, STI, and risk behaviours in concentrated HIV epidemics. Sexually Transmitted Infections 80(Suppl. 2): ii57–62.

Ruxrungtham, Kiat, Tim Brown, and Praphan Phanuphak (2004). HIV/AIDS in Asia. Lancet 364(9428): 69–82.

Brown, Tim (2003). HIV/AIDS in Asia. AsiaPacific Issues No. 68. Honolulu: East-West Center.

Chen, Jiajian, Chen Shengli, and Minja Kim Choe (2003). Who has correct information and knowledge about HIV/AIDS in China? In Shikun Zhang, Jason Hsia, and Lixia Mo, eds. Waking up: Reports on data analysis of Baseline Survey for HIV/AIDS Prevention. Beijing: China Population Press.

Chen, Jiajian, Chen Shengli, and Minja Kim Choe (2003). Who has correct information and knowledge about HIV/AIDS in China? Asia-Pacific Population Journal 8(4): 25–38.

Brown, Tim (2002). The HIV/AIDS epidemic in Asia. Asia-Pacific Population and Policy No. 60. Honolulu: East-West Center.

Chen, Sheng Li, Shi Kun Zhang, Li Xia Mo, and Shu Zhang Yang (2002). HIV/AIDS in China: Survey provides guidelines for improving awareness. Asia-Pacific Population and Policy No. 62. Honolulu: East-West Center.