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How the Trade War is Slowing Asia’s Economic Growth
An Indo-Pacific Political Economy and Trade Seminar featuring:
Dr. Valerie Mercer-Blackman
Senior Economist, Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department,
Asian Development Bank
Dr. Satu P. Limaye (Moderator)
Vice President, East-West Center & Director, East West Center in Washington
Economic growth in developing Asia currently remains robust but prospects have dimmed and risks to the region’s economies are rising as trade and investment weaken, according to Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2019 Update, the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) flagship economic publication. The report forecasts economic growth in the 45 countries of developing Asia at 5.4% this year before nudging up to 5.5% in 2020. These newly lowered forecasts reflect gloomier prospects for international trade due in part to escalating trade tensions between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the United States (US), as well as slowing economic growth in advanced economies and the large economies of developing Asia, including the PRC, India, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand.
The prospects for growth vary across the sub regions of developing Asia. The slowdown in global trade coupled with a sharp downswing in the electronics cycle has pulled down forecasts for the PRC and the more open economies in East and Southeast Asia. ADO 2019 Update forecasts the PRC economy to expand 6.2% this year and 6.0% next year. East Asia as a whole is expected to grow 5.5% in 2019 and 5.4% in 2020, while Southeast Asia is seen expanding 4.5% and 4.7%, respectively.
In its latest annual report on regional growth prospects, the Asian Development Bank focuses on the impact of the trade war on economic growth in the region. This issue of the ADO 2019 Update has a special focus on cities and urban policies and challenges in Asian and the Pacific. Join us for a discussion on the economic outlook, what is impacting long term growth in the region, and the role cities play in economies in Asia and the Pacific.
For more images, please visit the album for this event on the East-West Center's Flickr page.
SPEAKER BIOGRAPHIES
Valerie Mercer-Blackman, Senior Economist, Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department at the Asian Development Bank, has co-authored the Asian Development Outlook economic indicators section since 2017. Her earlier analytical work was on macroeconomic issues, particularly growth, investment and fiscal issues in DMCs, more specifically taxation of the oil and gas sector. Prior to joining the ADB, she worked as a macroeconomist for Central America and the Caribbean at the Inter-American Development Bank, and the International Monetary Fund. She holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and a BA from Yale University.
Satu Limaye is Vice President of the East-West Center and the Director of the East-West Center in Washington where he created and now directs the Asia Matters for America initiative and is the founding editor of the Asia Pacific Bulletin. He is also a Senior Advisor at CNA Corp (Center for Naval Analyses) and Senior Fellow on Asia History and Policy at the Foreign Policy Institute at Paul H. Nitze School of International Studies (SAIS). He is a magna cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa graduate of Georgetown University and received his doctorate from Oxford University (Magdalen College) where he was a George C. Marshall Scholar. Dr. Limaye publishes and presents on a range of Indo-Pacific issues. Recent publications include: Raging Waters: China, India, Bangladesh and Brahmaputra River Politics (with Nilanthi Samaranayake and Joel Wuthnow); Why ASEAN is Here to Stay and What that Means for the US; The United States-Japan Alliance and Southeast Asia: Meeting Regional Demands; and Weighted West: The Indian Navy’s New Maritime Strategy, Capabilities, and Diplomacy.
How the Trade War is Slowing Asia’s Economic Growth
An Indo-Pacific Political Economy and Trade Seminar featuring:
Dr. Valerie Mercer-Blackman
Senior Economist, Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department,
Asian Development Bank
Dr. Satu P. Limaye (Moderator)
Vice President, East-West Center & Director, East West Center in Washington
Economic growth in developing Asia currently remains robust but prospects have dimmed and risks to the region’s economies are rising as trade and investment weaken, according to Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2019 Update, the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) flagship economic publication. The report forecasts economic growth in the 45 countries of developing Asia at 5.4% this year before nudging up to 5.5% in 2020. These newly lowered forecasts reflect gloomier prospects for international trade due in part to escalating trade tensions between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the United States (US), as well as slowing economic growth in advanced economies and the large economies of developing Asia, including the PRC, India, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand.
The prospects for growth vary across the sub regions of developing Asia. The slowdown in global trade coupled with a sharp downswing in the electronics cycle has pulled down forecasts for the PRC and the more open economies in East and Southeast Asia. ADO 2019 Update forecasts the PRC economy to expand 6.2% this year and 6.0% next year. East Asia as a whole is expected to grow 5.5% in 2019 and 5.4% in 2020, while Southeast Asia is seen expanding 4.5% and 4.7%, respectively.
In its latest annual report on regional growth prospects, the Asian Development Bank focuses on the impact of the trade war on economic growth in the region. This issue of the ADO 2019 Update has a special focus on cities and urban policies and challenges in Asian and the Pacific. Join us for a discussion on the economic outlook, what is impacting long term growth in the region, and the role cities play in economies in Asia and the Pacific.
For more images, please visit the album for this event on the East-West Center's Flickr page.
SPEAKER BIOGRAPHIES
Valerie Mercer-Blackman, Senior Economist, Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department at the Asian Development Bank, has co-authored the Asian Development Outlook economic indicators section since 2017. Her earlier analytical work was on macroeconomic issues, particularly growth, investment and fiscal issues in DMCs, more specifically taxation of the oil and gas sector. Prior to joining the ADB, she worked as a macroeconomist for Central America and the Caribbean at the Inter-American Development Bank, and the International Monetary Fund. She holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and a BA from Yale University.
Satu Limaye is Vice President of the East-West Center and the Director of the East-West Center in Washington where he created and now directs the Asia Matters for America initiative and is the founding editor of the Asia Pacific Bulletin. He is also a Senior Advisor at CNA Corp (Center for Naval Analyses) and Senior Fellow on Asia History and Policy at the Foreign Policy Institute at Paul H. Nitze School of International Studies (SAIS). He is a magna cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa graduate of Georgetown University and received his doctorate from Oxford University (Magdalen College) where he was a George C. Marshall Scholar. Dr. Limaye publishes and presents on a range of Indo-Pacific issues. Recent publications include: Raging Waters: China, India, Bangladesh and Brahmaputra River Politics (with Nilanthi Samaranayake and Joel Wuthnow); Why ASEAN is Here to Stay and What that Means for the US; The United States-Japan Alliance and Southeast Asia: Meeting Regional Demands; and Weighted West: The Indian Navy’s New Maritime Strategy, Capabilities, and Diplomacy.
