North Korea’s Nuclear Gambit in 2017 and the Charm Offensive: Policy Implications


This is a listing of older East-West Center events (newer listed first).  See Events to get the list of current or upcoming events.


When: Apr 14 2021 - 10:30am until Apr 14 2021 - 12:00pm
Where: Zoom Webinar

The East-West Center in Washington invites you to the
Indo-Pacific Foreign Policy and Defense Series:

 North Korea’s Nuclear Gambit in 2017 and the Charm Offensive: Policy Implications


Dr. David W. Shin
Associate Professor & Deputy Department Chair,
Regional Security and Intelligence Issues Department,
College of Strategic Intelligence, National Intelligence University

Mr. Markus V. Garlauskas (Discussant)
Nonresident Senior Fellow,
Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security,
Atlantic Council

Dr.  Satu P. Limaye (Moderator)
Vice President, East-West Center &
Director, East-West Center in Washington

Dr. Shin contended that Kim Jong-un’s consolidation of power at home and the leveraging of Beijing, Moscow, Seoul, Washington, and others abroad show that he has consistently been underestimated. Dr. Shin presented an alternative framework for analyzing Kim Jong-un’s behavior during North Korea’s nuclear gambit in 2017 and Kim’s charm offensive that followed in 2018. Then, he, along with Mr. Garlauskas, shared their views of the policy implications of Kim’s leadership and strategy.

This seminar was based on the findings of Dr. Shin’s latest book, Kim Jong-un's Strategy for Survival: A Method to Madness.


David W. Shin is an associate professor and deputy department chair, Regional Security and Intelligence Issues Department, College of Strategic Intelligence, at the National Intelligence University in Bethesda, Maryland. From 1986 to 2011, he served in the US Army as a Military Intelligence and Northeast Asia Foreign Area Officer, achieving the rank of colonel. His experience includes negotiating with the North Korean People’s Army at Panmunjom as a United Nations Command Military Armistice Commission staff member, representing the Joint Staff as a member of the US delegation to the Six-Party Talks, and directing the US Army’s security cooperation activities with allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region. He is the author of Rationality in the North Korean Regime: Understanding the Kims’ Strategy of Provocation (2018) and Kim Jong-un’s Strategy for Survival: A Method to Madness (2020), both by Lexington Books, an imprint of Rowman and Littlefield.

Markus V. Garlauskas is a nonresident senior fellow in the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security of the Atlantic Council, affiliated with its Asia Security Initiative. He is an independent author, speaker, and consultant, frequently quoted in major media outlets. Garlauskas served in the US government for nearly twenty years. He was appointed to the Senior National Intelligence Service as the National Intelligence Officer (NIO) for North Korea on the National Intelligence Council from July 2014 to June 2020. As NIO, he led the US intelligence community’s strategic analysis on North Korea issues and expanded analytic outreach to non-government experts. He also provided direct analytic support to top-level policy deliberations, including the presidential transition, as well as the Singapore and Hanoi summits with North Korea. Garlauskas served for nearly twelve years overseas at the headquarters of United Nations Command, Combined Forces Command and US Forces Korea in Seoul. His staff assignments there included chief of the Intelligence Estimates Branch and director of the Strategy Division. For his service in Korea, he received the Joint Civilian Distinguished Service Award, the highest civilian award from the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Garlauskas holds an MA in Security Studies from Georgetown University, and a BA in History from Kent State University. He teaches a graduate course in strategic analysis of North Korea for Georgetown University’s Security Studies Program.

Dr. Satu P. Limaye is Vice President of the East-West Center and the Director of the East-West Center in Washington where he created and now directs the Asia Matters for America initiative and is the founding editor of the Asia Pacific Bulletin. He is also a Senior Advisor at CNA Corp (Center for Naval Analyses) and Senior Fellow on Asia History and Policy at the Foreign Policy Institute at Paul H. Nitze School of International Studies (SAIS). He is magna cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa graduate of Georgetown University and received his doctorate from Oxford University (Magdalen College) where he was a George C. Marshall Scholar. Recent publications include: “America’s ‘Pacific Principle’ in an Indivisible Pacific Islands Region,” (Asia-Pacific Bulletin); “Despite Stumbles, America’s Engagement with Southeast Runs Deep,” (Global Asia); Raging Waters: China, India, Bangladesh, and Brahmaputra Water Politics (Marine Corps University Press); and Russia’s Peripheral Relevance to US-Indo Pacific Relations (Center for the National Interest).

Primary Contact Info:
Name: Sarah Wang
Related Staff: