EWC Receives $458,000 to Improve HIV Estimation and Projection Tools


HONOLULU (May 4, 2012) – The East-West Center (EWC) has been awarded a contract for $458,276 from the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) to provide technical and financial support for the development and refinement of HIV/AIDS Incidence Estimation in the Spectrum software under the guidance of the UNAIDS Reference Group on HIV/AIDS Estimates, Modeling and Projection. Spectrum is a suite of policy models that provide policymakers with analytical tools to support decision making processes.

More than a decade ago, the East-West Center began developing computer models for tracking and projecting the spread of HIV. Today, EWC-developed software enables national health programs throughout the world to analyze their local HIV epidemics and develop effective policy responses. EWC Senior Research Fellow Tim Brown and teams of international counterparts have also implemented the Analysis and Advocacy project to improve HIV responses inAsia. Together they have developed both the AIDS Epidemic Model for Low-level and Concentrated Epidemics (formerly the Asian Epidemic Model) and the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package (EPP).

EPP is used to estimate and project HIV prevalence and incidence from surveillance data and is an important element of the Global HIV Estimates process. National prevalence and incidence projections produced by EPP are used by Spectrum to calculate the number of people living with HIV, new HIV infections, AIDS cases, AIDS deaths, treatment needs, AIDS orphans, and other variables. These estimation and projection tools support more comprehensive policy analysis of HIV epidemics and planning for strengthened responses.