Estimation of the J-Curve in China


Jaleel Ahmad and Jing Yang

East-West Center Working Papers, Economics Series, No. 67


Honolulu: East-West Center

Publication Date: March 2004
Binding: paper
Pages: 22
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This paper investigates whether a J-curve can be detected in the time series data on China’s bilateral trade with the G-7 countries. It utilizes cointegration and causality tests to ascertain the long-run relatedness, and the short-run dynamics, between the real exchange rate, national income, and the trade balance. There is some evidence that a real depreciation eventually improves the trade balance with some countries. But there is no indication of a negative short-run response which characterizes the J-curve.