Recent Publications by East-West Center Authors

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Featured Publications

Attitudes of Young Adults toward U.S. Bases on Okinawa

A new East-West Center Report, Millennial+ Voices in Okinawa: An Inquiry into the Attitudes of Young Adults toward the Presence of U.S. Bases, has found that many have mixed feeling about the bases and are often more concerned with other issues such as jobs, the economy, and the possibility of natural disasters. The report recommends that the U.S. military’s public outreach programs should be reviewed with younger people in mind and should take advantage of the desire for more base contact. Co-authors are Adjunct Senior Fellow Charles E. Morrison and East-West Center representative in Okinawa Daniel Chinen.

 

 

Taiwan's Role in the South Pacific

East-West Center Senior Fellow Denny Roy has recently published a report on Taiwan's role in the South Pacific for the National Bureau of Asian Research. Taiwan’s Potential Role in the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy: Convergence in the South Pacific examines the role of the Pacific Islands in Taiwan’s grand strategy and argues that Taiwan’s struggle to maintain formal diplomatic relations with Pacific Island nations dovetails with the United States’ reformulated Indo-Pacific strategy, even if Washington has yet to articulate a clear plan for coordinating activities in the South Pacific with Taipei.

 

 

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In Hawai‘i and the Pacific Islands, Climate Change Means Billions of Dollars of Coastal Damage, Widespread Coral Death, and Human Health Risks

Strained freshwater supplies, damaged and compromised coastal infrastructure, coral reef death, and stress on native biodiversity and species are among the major concerns and challenges detailed in the chapter on Hawai‘i and the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands in Volume II of the Fourth National Climate Assessment. In economic terms, the impacts add up to billions of dollars. Victoria Keener, Research Fellow at the East-West Center and Lead Principal Investigator of the Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (Pacific RISA) Program was the chapter’s regional lead.

 

2018 North Pacific Arctic Conference

In 2018, the annual North Pacific Arctic Conference focused on “Arctic 2030 and Beyond―Pathways to the Future." More than 30 participants from Australia, Canada, China, Finland, Japan, Norway, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States explored long-term developments in the Arctic and discussed new ideas for the region. Three crosscutting issues linked these discussions: governance needs and options, the role of science, and corporate sustainability. A common thread was the importance of sustaining the Arctic as a zone of peace and prosperity in a rapidly changing and often turbulent and unpredictable world. Papers presented at the conference are available in a proceedings volume: The Arctic in World Affairs: A North Pacific Dialogue on Arctic 2030 and Beyond: Pathways to the Future.

 

Fertility Decline in East Asia: Patterns, Causes, and Policy Implications

Three countries in East Asia—Japan, South Korea, and mainland China—now have among the lowest levels of human fertility in the world. The shift to very low fertility has ushered in an era of entirely new demographic dynamics, including rapid and extreme population aging and ensuing dramatic population decline. Convergence to Very Low Fertility in East Asia: Processes, Causes, and Implications provides a systematic comparison of fertility transitions in these three East Asian countries and discusses the economic, social, and cultural factors that may account for their similarities and differences. The monograph concludes with a discussion of policy implications. Adjunct Senior Fellow Minja Kim Choe is one of the book's co-authors.

 

Family Demography in Asia

As the biggest driver of population growth in the world, Asia's demographic future is a global issue, and an understanding of patterns and trends in fertility throughout Asia is critically important. Family Demography in Asia: A Comparative Analysis of Fertility Preferences, recently published by Edward Elgar, explores the heterogeneous experience of Asia, home to some of the highest and lowest fertility rates in the world. This is the first book to analyse fertility comprehensively and systematically across the continent through the perspective of individuals rather than as a consequence of top-down government policies. Adjunct Senior Fellow Minja Kim Choe and graduate student Ki Tae Park authored the chapter on South Korea, and Choe is one of the book's co-editors.

 

 

 

Resilience and Public Policy: Response to the Tohoku Earthquake and Hurricane Sandy

Nexus of Resilience and Public Policy in a Modern Risk Society integrates the latest theoretical insights on public policy and resilience and the latest practical analyses of two case studies—the Tohoku Disaster (Great East Japan Earthquake) in 2011 and Hurricane Sandy on the North American East Coast in 2012—to provide policy tools for future resilient societies and disaster risk management. Co-author Allen L. Clark is Director of the East-West Center's Professional Development Program.

 

 

Conflict Resource Economy and Pathways to Peace in Burma

Burma’s natural resource economy is inextricably tied to the ongoing armed conflict within the country. Questions loom large over who has what ownership rights to what resources and how these resources can be more equitably shared with the wider population. The Conflict Resource Economy and Pathways to Peace in Burma, a report published in November 2018 by the United States Institute of Peace, focuses on Burma’s resource-rich ethnic states and territories near the borders with China and Thailand and suggests that a more robust, accountable, and equitable system for managing the country’s resource wealth can help lay down the pathways to peace. The author of the report, Kevin M. Woods, is a political ecologist and human geographer who specializes in land and natural resource management and its governance reform in ethnic conflict areas. Woods is an Adjunct Fellow at the East-West Center.

 

Publications in 2019

Ernst, Dieter (2019). China’s innovation policy and the quest for semiconductor autonomy: Q&A with Dieter Ernst. Insight: The Journal of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai. May/June 2019: 25-27.

China’s leadership is eager to use all the tools of industrial, trade, and competition policy to co-shape international standardization and to catch up and forge ahead in advanced manufacturing and services. While U.S. analysts typically see these policies as a ploy for world domination, in China they are viewed as unavoidable if the country wants to move beyond the outdated “Global Factory” model based on low-wage mass production. China's current AI and big-data boom has deepened US-China rivalry and explains the proliferation of US technology export restrictions.

Morrison, Charles E., and Daniel Chinen (2019). Millennial+ voices in Okinawa: An inquiry into the attitudes of young adults toward the presence of U.S. bases. Honolulu: East-West Center and United States-Japan Foundation.

Many young adults on Okinawa have mixed feeling about the U.S. bases and are often more concerned with other issues such as jobs, the economy, and the possibility of natural disasters. This report recommends that the U.S. military’s public outreach programs should be reviewed with younger people in mind and should take advantage of the desire for more base contact.

Roy, Denny (2019). Assertive China: Irredentism or expansionism? Survival: Global Politics and Strategy. 61(1): 51–74.

China's irredentist claims cover an area so vast that it is already tantamount to a sphere of influence.

Roy, Denny (2019). Taiwan's potential role in the free and open Indo-Pacific strategy: Convergence in the South Pacific. Seattle, WA: National Bureau of Asian Research.

This report examines the role of the Pacific Islands in Taiwan’s grand strategy and argues that Taiwan’s struggle to maintain formal diplomatic relations with these states dovetails with the United States’ reformulated Indo-Pacific strategy, even if Washington has yet to articulate a clear plan for coordinating activities in the South Pacific with Taipei.

Roy, Denny (2019). US strategy toward China: Three key questions for policymakers. PacNet30. Honolulu, HI: Pacific Forum.

China’s economic development holds many potential benefits for the international community, but there are downside risks for the US associated with China’s rise. A US strategy for protecting itself hinges on three fundamental questions: Is China ascending to regional hegemony?, Would the harm to US interests caused by a Chinese hegemony justify the cost of trying to thwart this outcome?, and What is the most efficient US strategy for preventing a form of Chinese domination that would undermine US well-being?

Salim, Wilmar, Keith Bettinger, and Micah Fisher (2019). Maladaption on the waterfront: Jakarta's growth coalition and the Great Garuda. Environment and Urbanization ASIA. 10(1): 63–80.

The capital city of Indonesia, Jakarta, faces chronic flooding which has been and will continue to be exacerbated by climate change processes. In response to this threat, the government has devised a megaproject solution, the so-called Great Garuda project. We describe how this project fails to address the root causes of flooding in Jakarta and show how the project is a channel through which politically connected economic elites of the Suharto regime can reconstitute "growth coalitions"’ to benefit from privileged access to development contracts and concessions.

Shimizu, Mika and Allen L. Clark (2019). Nexus of resilience and public policy in a moderen risk society. Singapore: Springer Nature.

This book integrates the latest theoretical insights on public policy and resilience and the latest practical analyses of case studies, such as the Tohoku Disaster in 2011 and Hurricane Sandy in 2012, to provide policy tools for future resilient societies and disaster risk management.

Tsuya, Noriko O., Minja Kim Choe, and Feng Wang (2019). Convergence to very low fertility in East Asia: Processes, causes, and implications.  Tokyo: Springer Japan.

Three countries in East Asia—Japan, South Korea, and mainland China—now have among the lowest levels of human fertility in the world. The shift to very low fertility has ushered in an era of entirely new demographic dynamics, including rapid and extreme population aging and ensuing dramatic population decline. This book provides a systematic comparison of fertility transitions in these three East Asian countries, discusses the economic, social, and cultural factors that may account for their similarities and differences, and concludes with a discussion of policy implications.

Publications in 2018

Abrigo, Michael R.M., Sang-Hyop Lee, and Donghyun Park (2018). Human capital spending, inequality, and growth in middle-income Asia. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade. 54(6): 1285-1303. This article is also available as Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper 529.

Data from the National Transfer Accounts indicate that human capital spending has a positive effect on growth, equity, and fiscal balance in Asia.

Brunner, Jessie (2018). Getting to good human trafficking data: Everyday guidelines for frontline practitioners in Southeast Asia. Stanford, California: WS Handa Center for Human Rights and International Justice; Honolulu, Hawaii: East-West Center; West Java, Indonesia: Human Rights Resource Centre.

The guidelines are based on interviews with anti-trafficking practitioners in four Southeast Asian nations, with additional input from international experts on human trafficking and data management. They offer baseline standards and recommendations based on current understanding of good, responsible data practices.

Cho, Dongchui, Takatoshi Ito, and Andrew Mason, eds. (2018). Economic stagnation in Japan: Exploring the causes and remedies of Japanization. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.

Japan's dramatic transformation from economic success story to prime example of economic stagnation offers important policy lessons to advanced countries everywhere. This book assesses a wide range of policy approaches aimed at avoiding stagnation and economic decline.

Corell, Robert W., Jong Deong Kim, Yoon Hyong Kim, Arild Moe, David L VanderZwaag, and Oran R. Young, eds. (2018). The Arctic in World Affairs: A North Pacific Dialogue on Arctic 2030 and Beyond: Pathways to the Future. Busan, Republic of Korea: Korea Maritime Institute; Honolulu, Hawaii: East-West Center.

In 2018, the annual North Pacific Arctic Conference focused on “Arctic 2030 and Beyond―Pathways to the Future." Participants explored long-term developments in the Arctic and formulated new ideas and constructs for the region. Three crosscutting issues linked conference discussions: governance needs and options, the role of science, and corporate sustainability. A common thread was the importance of sustaining the Arctic as a zone of peace and prosperity in a rapidly changing and often turbulent and unpredictable world.

Ernst, Dieter, and Michael G. Plummer, eds. (2018). Megaregionalism 2.0: Trade and innovation within global networks. World Scientific.

International trade and investment play critical role in fostering sustainable growth and prosperity. Economic policies are needed to ensure that gains and losses from trade are shared by all.

Fox, Jefferson, Tuyen Nghiem, Ham Kimkong, Kaspar Hurni, and Ian G. Baird (2018). Large-scale land concessions, migration, and land use: The paradox of industrial estates in the Red River Delta of Vietnam and rubber plantations of Northeast Cambodia. Land. 7(2), 77; https://doi.org/10.3390/land7020077.

Labor migrations associated with industrial estates in the Red River Delta and rubber plantations in Northeast Cambodia affect land-use practices both at the site of the concession and the places from where the migrants originate.

Gietel-Basten, Stuart, John Casterline, and Minja Kim Choe, eds. (2018). Family demography in Asia: A Comparative analysis of fertility preferences. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar.

As the biggest driver of population growth in the world, Asia's demographic future is a global issue, and an understanding of patterns and trends in fertility throughout Asia is critical to understand our shared demographic future. This book explores the heterogeneous experience of Asia, home to some of the highest and lowest fertility rates in the world, and analyses fertility comprehensively and systematically across the continent through the perspective of individuals themselves rather than as a consequence of top-down government policies.

Ha, Joonkyung, and Sang-Hyop Lee (2018). Population aging and the possibility of a middle-income trap in Asia. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade. 54(6): 1225-38. This article is also available as Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper 536.

Low fertility in many Asian countries could slow down economic growth and lead to a middle-income trap.

Harwit, Eric (2018). Is 5G wireless technology the next field for Chinese dominance? China-US Focus, 4 April.

If Chinese companies succeed in designing and deploying key technologies for 5G systems, they may reap a whirlwind of profits from a multitude of new technologies and gain unparalleled leverage in areas far beyond their national borders. 

Hurni, Kaspar, and Jefferson Fox (2018). The expansion of tree-based boom crops in mainland Southeast Asia: 2001 to 2014. Journal of Land Use Science. 13(1-2): 198-219.

Between 2003 and 2014, the area planted with rubber more than quadrupled in a region of Southeast Asia more than twice the size of France. Most of this expansion came at the expense of the region's native forests.

Keener, Victoria W., David A. Helweg, Susan Asam, Seema Balwani, Maxine Burkett, Charles Fletcher, Thomas Giambelluca, Zena Grecni, Malia Nobrega-Olivera, Jeffrey J. Polovina and Gordon Tribble (2018). Hawai‘i and US-affiliated Pacific Islands. Chapter 27 in The Fourth National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: U.S. Global Change Research Program.

Strained freshwater supplies, damaged and compromised coastal infrastructure, coral reef death, and greater stresses on native biodiversity and species are among the major concerns and challenges detailed in the Hawai‘i-Pacific Islands chapter of the fourth official US National Climate Assessment, released today. In economic terms, the impacts add up to billions of dollars.

Mason, Andrew, and Ronald Lee (2018). Intergenerational transfers and the older population. In National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine. Future directions for the demography of aging: Proceedings of a workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, pp.187-214.

Families play a central role in child rearing with large intergenerational transfers of money and time from parents to children. In some societies, intergenerational family transfers are also an important part of the old-age support system. Governments also are heavily involved in intergenerational transfers through public programs for education, health care, and pensions.

Matsukura, Rikiya, Satoshi Shimizutani, Nahoko Mitsuyama, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Naohiro Ogawa (2018 in press). Untapped work capacity among old persons and their potential contributions to the silver dividend in Japan. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing.

Research shows a vast untapped work capacity of the Japanese elderly age 60–79, amounting to more than 11 million workers. Tapping into this work capacity can have a substantial accumulated effect on economic growth in the long term and is unlikely to pose a serious threat to the employment opportunities of the young.

Mora , Camilo, Daniele Spirandelli, Erik C. Franklin, John Lynham, Michael B. Kantar , Wendy Miles, Charlotte Z. Smith , Kelle Freel, Jade Moy, Leo V. Louis, Evan W. Barba, Keith Bettinger, Abby G. Frazier , John F. Colburn IX, Naota Hanasaki , Ed Hawkins , Yukiko Hirabayashi, Wolfgang Knorr, Christopher M. Little , Kerry Emanuel, Justin Sheffield , Jonathan A. Patz and Cynthia L. Hunter (2018). Broad threat to humanity from cumulative climate hazards intensified by greenhouse gas emissions. Nature Climate Change. Review Article. DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0315-6.

This research reveals that society faces a much larger threat from climate change than previous studies have suggested. The systematic review of thousands of scientific papers revealed 467 ways in which climate hazards have already impacted human health. Food, water, economy, “lifeline” infrastructure, and security have been affected by multiple climatic hazards, including warming, drought, heat-waves, wildfires, precipitation, floods, storms, sea level rise and changes in land cover and ocean chemistry.

National Transfer Accounts (2018). What do we learn when we "Count Women's Work"?  NTA Bulletin No.13. Honolulu: East-West Center.

Taking account of unpaid care and housework substantially increases the cost of raising children but also shows that the elderly are not as heavy a burden on their families as sometimes suggested.

Noland, Marcus (2018). North Korea: Sanctions, engagement, and strategic reorientation. East-West Center Working Papers: Innovation and Economic Growth Series, No. 14. Honolulu: East-West Center.

This paper examines the roles that sanctions, and inducements might play in resolving the North Korea problem. It finds that while the "maximum pressure" narrative is plausible, the evidence to substantiate it is thin. The North Korean regime is aware of the potentially constraining (or even destabilizing) political implications of cross-border economic integration and has acted to structure engagement in ways to blunt its transformative impact. Maximizing the transformative possibilities of engagement will require conscious planning by North Korea's partners and greater political commitment than has been witnessed to date.

Roy, Denny (2018). America’s deep rationale for PACOM. In T. Motohiro, ed. US Pacific Command and Asia: Security in the Indo-Pacific. Tokyo: Chikura Publishing Company.

Roy, Denny (2018). PACOM and the Pentagon. In Tsuchiya T. Motohiro, ed. US Pacific Command and Asia: Security in the Indo-Pacific. Tokyo: Chikura Publishing Company.

Roy, Denny (2018). We will soon miss the Deng era. Dong Hwa Journal of Humanities and Social Science [National Dong Hwa University, Taiwan]. 17.

Saksena, Sumeet, Chinh Cong Tran, and Jefferson Fox (2018). Household cooking fuel use in rural and peri-urban Viet Nam: A multilevel longitudinal analysis of supply side factors. Energy for Sustainable Development. 44:47–54.

In some places in Vietnam the transition from wood to cleaner fuels for household cooking has slowed down due to the government's successful small-holder tree-planting programs. Highway construction and improved access to markets may facilitate households moving to cleaner fuels.

Woods, Kevin (2018). The conflict resource economy and pathways to peace in Burma. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace.

Burma’s natural resource economy is inextricably tied to the ongoing armed conflict within the country. Questions loom large over who has what ownership rights to what resources and how these resources can be more equitably shared with the wider population. This report focuses on Burma’s resource-rich ethnic states and territories near the borders with China and Thailand and suggests that a more robust, accountable, and equitable system for managing the country’s resource wealth can help lay down the pathways to peace.

Woods, Kevin (2018). Rubber out of the ashes: Locating Chinese agribusiness investments in "armed sovereignties" in the Myanmar-Chinese borderlands. Territory, Politics, Governance. DOI: 10.1080/21622671.2018.1460276.

The borderland between Myanmar and China has been splintered for decades by fighting among local militias. To assert control, the Myanmar government allocated large tracts of land to private businesses to grow rubber and other crops. This “land grab” has been financed in part by the Chinese government under the guise of a crop-substitution program to reduce the production of heroin.

Recent and Earlier Publications by East-West Center Authors

* Publications on Environmental Issues

* Publications on Population and Health

* Publications on Innovation, Economic Integration, and Growth

* Publications on Governance, Security, and Justice

 

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