Recent Publications by East-West Center Authors


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Featured Publications

East Asia Decouples from the  United States: Trade War, COVID-19,  and East Asia’s New Trade Blocs

The deepening US-China trade war and nationalist reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic are reshaping global economic relationships, according to a new working paper coauthored by East-West Center Non-Resident Senior Fellow Michael Plummer. Alongside these developments, two new megaregional trade agreements, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), will refocus East Asia’s economic ties in the region itself.  The new agreements offset the effects of the trade war globally, but not for the United States and China. The trade war makes RCEP especially valuable because it strengthens East Asian interdependence, raising trade among members by $428 billion and reducing trade among nonmembers by $48 billion. These shifts bring regional ties closer to institutional arrangements proposed in the 1990s and incentivize greater cooperation among China, Japan, and South Korea.

Competing in Artificial Intelligence Chips: China’s Challenge Amid Technology War

This special report by East-West Center Adjunct Senior Fellow Dieter Ernst assesses the challenges that China is facing in developing its artificial intelligence (AI) industry due to unprecedented US technology export restrictions. A central proposition is that China's achievements in AI lack a robust foundation in leading-edge AI chips, and thus the country is vulnerable to externally imposed supply disruptions. China's leadership believes that a robust domestic AI chip industry is needed if the country wants to sustain its still highly fragile achievements in commercial AI applications. From a US perspective, it is ironic that US restrictions on technology exports may actually strengthen China's resolve to accelerate the development of its domestic semiconductor industry.

Learning from Success in Climate-Informed Decision-Making: Case Studies Across Three U.S. Regions

A network of sustained assessment specialists created within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (NOAA RISA) program present a new report that includes five case studies of successful local responses to climate change supported by scientific information. East-West Center Project Specialist Zena Grecni was the lead author. Based on three regions—the U.S. Pacific Islands, the South Central United States, and the Rocky Mountain West—the case studies feature local managers who are providing and applying climate information, with valuable outcomes, across a range of geographic scales and sectors. They include improving local climate-adaptation efforts in San Angelo, Texas, enhancing the resilience of iconic coastal ecosystems on Hawai‘i Island, managing water in the Colorado River Conservation District, increasing conservation resilience in the southern Great Plains, and using El Niño forecasts to plan for drought in the Pacific Islands. The case studies provide new insights, which are summarized as five practical lessons for anyone seeking to better integrate climate considerations into decision-making.


Macroeconomic Impacts and Policies in Aging Societies

Will population aging lead to an economic crisis with tepid economic growth, generational inequality, unsustainable public finances, and overly burdened families? East-West Center Senior Fellows Andrew Mason and Sang-Hyop Lee explore these questions in the lead chapter of a recent book published by the Asian Development Bank Institute, Aging societies: Policies and perspectives.





All Recent Publications


Brewington, Laura (2020). Transitions and drivers of land use/land cover change in Hawaiʻi: A case study of Maui. In S.J. Walsh, D. Riveros-Iregui, J. Acre-Nazario, and P.H. Page, eds. Land cover/land use change on islands: Social and ecological threats to sustainability. Heidelberg: Springer.

Brewington, Laura, John Marra, M. Widlansky, F. Wase-Jacklick, and J. Ishigiro (2020). Official proceedings of the First National Climate Change and Health Dialog. Majuro, Republic of the Marshall Islands.

Brown, Tim (2020). Editorial: Trace for coronavirus containment, then carefully restart Hawaii businesses. Honolulu Star Advertiser, 12 April.

Brown, Tim, and Sumner La Croix (2020). How to control Hawaii’s coronavirus epidemic and bring back the economy: The next steps. UHERO Brief (The Economic Research Organization at the University of Hawaii), 3 April.

Brown, Tim, and Sumner La Croix (2020). Using extensive testing and geographical isolation to mitigate the coronavirus crisis in Hawaii. UHERO Brief (The Economic Research Organization at the University of Hawaii), March 25, 2020.

Choi, J., W.H. Lim, and Sang-Hyop Lee, eds. (2020 in press). Competition law and economics: Developments, policies, and enforcement trends in the US and Korea. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

City and County of Honolulu Climate Change Commission [R. Alegado, M. Coffman, C. Fletcher, V. Keener, and B.J. Mehnert] (2020). Climate change and financial risk—guidance document. Honolulu: City and County of Honolulu Climate Change Commission. Adopted 14 July 2020.

Cheng, C.L., Izuka, S.K., Kennedy, J.J., Frazier, A.G., and Giambelluca, T.W., 2021, Water-resource management monitoring needs, State of Hawai‘i: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2020-5115, 114 p.,

Lucas, Matthew P., Clay Trauernicht, Abby G. Frazier, and Tomoaki Miura (2020). Long-Term, Gridded Standardized Precipitation Index for Hawai‘i. Data 5(4), 109. doi: 10.3390/data5040109.

Luo, Xiao, Bin Wang, Abby G. Frazier, and Thomas W. Giambelluca (2020). Distinguishing variability regimes of Hawaiian summer rainfall: Quasi-Biennial and interdecadal oscillations. Geophysical Research Letters 47(23), e2020GL091260. doi: 10.1029/2020GL091260.

Crausbay, Shelley D., Julio Betancourt, John Bradford, Jennifer Cartwright, William C. Dennison, Jason Dunham, Carolyn A.F. Enquist, Abby G. Frazier, Kimberly R. Hall, Jeremy S. Littell, Charles H. Luce, Richard Palmer, Aaron R. Ramirez, Imtiaz Rangwala, Laura Thompson. Brianne M. Walsh, and Shawn Carter (2020). Unfamiliar territory: Emerging themes for ecological drought research and management. One Earth. 3(3): 337–53. doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2020.08.019.

Ernst, Dieter (2020). Catching up in a technology war—China's challenge in artificial intelligence. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 16 June.

Ernst, Dieter (2020). Competing in artificial intelligence chips: China’s challenge amid technology war. Special Report. Waterloo, Canada. Centre for Intrernational Governance Innovation.

Govella, Kristi . (2021). The Adaptation of Japanese Economic Statecraft: Trade, Aid, and Technology. World Trade Review 20(2)

Govella, Kristi (2020). Crafting policies for contested commons: Insights from Japan's approach to the outer space, cyberspace, and maritime domains. Joint Policy Paper Series: Japan's Leadership in the Liberal International Order: Impact and Policy Opportunities for Partners. Vancouver, Canada: School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, University of British Columbia.

Han, Soyoung, and Marcus Noland (2020). Women, leadership, and Asian economic performance. AsiaPacific Issues no. 142. Honolulu: East-West Center.

Hong, Yu, and Eric Harwit (2020). China's globalizing internet: History, power, and governance. Chinese Journal of Communication. 13(1): 1–7.

Lee, Sang-Hyop, ed. (2020 forthcoming).  Challenges and policy responses to population aging. Sejoing-si, Korea: KIHASA Press.

Lee, Sang-Hyop, and Andrew Mason (2020).  Better work opportunities for older adults would benefit South Korean economy. Eurasia Review. 27 May.

Lee, Sang-Hyop, Cheol-Kon Park, and Andrew Mason (2020). Older workers and health capacity to work in the Republic of Korea. Manila: Asian Development Bank.

Lee, Sang-Hyop, Cheol-Kon Park, and Andrew Mason (2020). Better work opportunities for older adults would benefit the South Korean economy. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 26 May.

Bettinger, K.A., and Longman, R.J., (2020) Pacific Island Country Climate Factsheets. USAID Climate Ready Knowledge Products, Contract Number AID-492-H-17-00001

Xue, L., Wang, Y., Newman, A.J. Ikeda, K, Rasmussen, R.M., Giambelluca, T.W., Longman, R.J., Monaghan, A.J., Clark, M.P., and Arnold, J.R. (2020) How will rainfall change over Hawai‘i in the future? High-resolution regional climate simulation of the Hawaiian Islands. Bulletin of Atmospheric Science and Technology 118, 1-32.

Longman; Ryan J., Andrew J. Newman, Thomas W. Giambelluca, and Matthew Lucas (2020).Characterizing the uncertainty and assessing the value of gap-filled daily rainfall data in Hawaii. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 59 (7):1261–1276.

Lüthje, Boy (2020). New technologies and new modes of production disrupt China's automotive industry. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 6 April.

Mason, Andrew, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Donghyun Park (2020). An aging population in Asia creates economic challenges. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 8 May.

Mason, Andrew, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Donghyun Park (2020). Demographic change, economic growth, and old-age economic security. Manila: Asian Development Bank.

McNally, Christopher (2020). Chaotic mélange: Neo-liberalism and neo-statism in the age of Sino-capitalism. Review of International Political Economy. 27(2): 281–301.

Miles, Wendy B. (2020). The invisible commodity: Local experiences with forest carbon offsetting in Indonesia. Nature and Space. 1–26. DOI: 10.1177/2514848620905235.10.

Neumark, D., Sang-Hyop Lee, and Y.S. Kim, eds. (2020 in press). A new direction in human capital policy. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

Noland, Marcus (2020). The pandemic in North Korea: Lessons from the 1990s famine. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 8 June.

Nugent, Alison D., Ryan Longman, Clay Trauernicht, Matthew Lucas, Henry F. Diaz, and Thomas W. Giambelluca (2020). Fire and rain: The legacy of Hurricane Lane in Hawai‘i. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 101(6): E954–E967.

Petri, Peter A., and Michael G. Plummer (2020). East Asia decouples from the United States: Trade war, COVID-19, and East Asia's new trade blocs. Working Paper 20-9. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Roy, Denny (2020). A Chinese attack on Taiwan is not imminent, Asia Times. 19 March 2020.

Roy, Denny (2020). China won’t achieve regional hegemony. The Washington Quarterly. 19 March 2020.

Roy, Denny (2020). China's domestic politics hamstring its diplomacy. Asia Times. 25 May 2020.

Roy, Denny (2020). China’s eight arguments against Western ‘hubris’ and why they fail. Pacific Forum. 1 May 2020.

Roy, Denny (2020). China's pandemic diplomacy. AsiaPacific Issues No. 144. Honolulu, HI: East-West Center.

Roy, Denny (2020). Did COVID-19 really give China a strategic advantage? The Diplomat. 22 July 2020.

Roy, Denny (2020). How China is slow conquering the South China Sea. The National Interest. 7 May 2020.

Roy, Denny (2020). If Kim Jong-un dies North Korea could survive (with Kim Yo-jong taking over). The National Interest. 26 April 2020.

Roy, Denny (2020). No fire and fury: 2020 may be a quiet year for US-North Korea relations. The National Interest. 12 May 2020.

Roy, Denny (2020). Pandemic won’t break the North Korea stalemate. The National Interest. 28 March 2020.

Roy, Denny (2020). Reasons for Taiwan to be hopeful. Taipei Times. 16 April 2020.

Roy, Denny (2020). Tensions in Northeast Asia pose varying threats to Southeast Asia. Perspective. Singpore: ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute.

Roy, Denny (2020). The collapse of Chinese soft power, PacNet 47, Pacific Forum, 14 August 2020.

Roy, Denny (2020). US-China reconcilliation is drifting further away. The Japan Times. 29 July 2020.

Roy, Denny (2020). When giants fight, even the wisest Southeast Asian leaders are left helpless, ThinkChina. 3 August 2020.

Roy, Denny (2020). "Xi Jinping thought on diplomacy" fails to impress—or reassure. The Diplomat. 2 April 2020.

Saksena, Sumeet, James Spencer, and Catherine Ros (2020). Opinion: Smart cities can help fight against infectious diseases. Atlanta Journal-Constitution. 17 February.

Spencer, James H., Sumeet Saksena, and Jefferson Fox (2020). New findings on links between urban expansion and viral disease in Vietnam offer lessons for COVID-19. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center.1 April.

Spencer, James H., Melissa L. Finucane, Jefferson M. Fox, Sumeet Saksena, and Nargis Sultana (2020). Emerging infectious disease, the household built environment characteristics, and urban planning: Evidence on avian influenza in Vietnam. Landscape and Urban Planning. 193 (January 2020).

Vogt, Tobias, Fanny Kluge, and Ronald Lee (2020). Intergenerational resource sharing and mortality in a global perspective. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 201920978 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1920978117.

Walsh, S.J., R.E. Bilsborrow, Laura Brewington, Y. Shao, H. Mattei, J.A. Nazario, F. Laso, P.H. Page, B.G. Frizzelle, and F. Pizzitutti, F. (2020). Social-ecological drivers of land cover/land use change on islands: A synthesis of the patterns and processes of change. In S.J. Walsh, D. Riveros-Iregui, J. Acre-Nazario, and P.H. Page, eds. Land cover/land use change on islands: Social and ecological threats to sustainability. Heidelberg: Springer.

Yokying, Phanwin, and Isabel Lambrecht (2020). Landownership and gender gaps in agriculture: Insights from Ghana. Land Use Policy. 99 (December 2020).

Yokying, Phanwin, and Maria S. Floro (2020). Parents’ labor force participation and children’s participation in work activities: Evidence from Thailand. Oxford Development Studies. 48(3): 287–303.

Yoo, G., Sang-Hyop Lee, Jonghoon Lee, and Cheolsoo Lee (2020). The future of labor [in Korean]. Seoul: Hyeonamsa.


Alegado, R., M. Coffman, C. Fletcher, Victoria Keener, and B. Mehnert (2019). Guidance on revisions to the revised ordinance of Honolulu Chapter 23, regarding shoreline setbacks. Honolulu: City and County of Honolulu Climate Change Commission.

Baird, I.G., W. Noseworthy, N.P. Tuyen, L.T. Ha, and Jefferson Fox (2019). Land grabs and labour: Vietnamese workers on rubber plantations in southern Laos. Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography 40(1): 50–70.

Brewington, Laura, Victoria Keener, and Alan Mair (2019). Simulating land cover change impacts on groundwater recharge under selected climate projections, Maui, Hawaiʻi. Remote Sensing of Human-Environment Interactions. 11(24):3048.

This project developed an integrated land cover/hydrological modeling framework using remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) data, stakeholder input, climate information and projections, and empirical data to estimate future groundwater recharge on the Island of Maui, Hawaiʻi, USA. The study demonstrated that a spatially explicit scenario planning process and modeling framework can communicate the possible consequences and tradeoffs of land cover change under a changing climate. The outputs from this study serve as relevant tools for landscape-level management and interventions.

Broder, Sherry P. (2019). Plastic and microplastic litter: A serious problem in the Arctic Ocean. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 28 August.

Brown, Tim, and Wiwat Peerapatanapokin (2019). Evolving HIV epidemics: The urgent need to refocus on populations with risk. Current Opinion in HIV and AIDS. 14(5): 337–53.

This analysis shows that most "concentrated" HIV epidemics outside of sub-Saharan Africa do not become "generalized" over time. Although the proportion of prevalent HIV infections among the "general population" grows, this growth primarily reflects turnover in key populations and transmission from current and former key population members to their intimate partners. Only a limited amount of transmission is between members of the general population with no relationship to key populations. So key populations must remain at the core of epidemic responses.

Brown, Tim, and Wiwat Peerapatanapokin (2019). HIV/AIDS in Asia: We need to keep the focus on key population groups. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 17 September.

Corell, Robert W., Jong Deog Kim, Yoon Hyung Kim, Arild Moe, Charles E. Morrison, David L. WanderZwaag, and Oran R. Young, eds. (2019). The Arctic in world affairs: A North Pacific dialogue on global-Arctic Interactions: The Arctic moves from periphery to center. Busan, Korea: Korea Maritime Institute; and Honolulu, HI: East-West Center.

A "New Arctic" is emerging that is functionally operating in a dramatically changed—and rapidly changing—world order. This New Arctic is a direct consequence of unprecedented changes in the global climate system and concurrent transformations in the geopolitical world, all of which further drive changes in the Arctic, which in turn have global consequences. The scale of change in this New Arctic presents a new and shifting reality, with global reach. These rapid changes provide new venues and opportunities that affect the interests of Arctic coastal nations and high-north businesses and governance. Finally, a new international multi-decadal-scale agenda is emerging that increasingly focuses on four major changes, with international and domestic consequences: climate change, global and Arctic regional socio-economic change, challenges that affect human and societal well-being, and geopolitical realities.

De Alban, Jose Don T., Graham W. Prescott, Kevin M. Woods, Johanness Jamuludin, Kyaw Thinn Latt, Cheng Ling Lim, Aye Chan Maung, and Edward L. Webb (2019). Integrating analytical frameworks to investigate land-cover regime shifts in dynamic landscapes. Sustainability. 11:1–23.

The Tanintharyi Region of Myanmar, which contains one of the last remaining significant contiguous forest areas in Southeast Asia, was heavily deforested between 1992–2015. By combining remote sensing methods and a literature review of historical processes leading to land-use and land-cover change, this study identified a regime shift from a forest-oriented state to an agricultural-oriented state between 1997–2004. The regime shift was triggered by a confluence of complex political and economic conditions within Myanmar, notably the ceasefires between various ethnic groups and the military government, coupled with its enhanced business relations with Thailand and China. Government policies and foreign direct investment enabling the establishment of large-scale agro-industrial concessions reinforced the new agriculture-oriented regime and prevented reversion to the original forest-dominated regime.

Eaton, Jeffrey W., Tim Brown, Robert Puckett, Robert Glaubius, Kennedy Mutai, Peter W. Young, Le Bao, Joshua A. Salomon, John Stover, Mary Mahy, and Timothy B. Hallett (2019 in press). EPP-ASM and the r-hybrid model: New tools for estimating HIV incidence trends in sub-Saharan Africa. AIDS. Supplement on UNAIDS modeling methods.

Ernst, Dieter (2019). China’s innovation policy and the quest for semiconductor autonomy: Q&A with Dieter Ernst. Insight: The Journal of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai. May/June 2019: 25-27.

China’s leadership is eager to use all the tools of industrial, trade, and competition policy to co-shape international standardization and to catch up and forge ahead in advanced manufacturing and services. While U.S. analysts typically see these policies as a ploy for world domination, in China they are viewed as unavoidable if the country wants to move beyond the outdated “Global Factory” model based on low-wage mass production. China's current AI and big-data boom has deepened US-China rivalry and explains the proliferation of US technology export restrictions.

Frauendorf, Therese C., Richard A. MacKenzie, Ralph W. Tingley, Abby G. Frazier, Michael H. Riney, and Rana W. El-Sabaawi (2019). Evaluating ecosystem effects of climate change on tropical island streams using high spatial and temporal sampling regimes. Global Change Biology. 25(4): 1344-57.

We utilized a well‐constrained rainfall gradient on Hawaii Island to determine (a) how predicted decreases in flow and increases in flow variability affect stream food resources and consumers and (b) if using a high temporal (monthly, four streams) or a high spatial (annual, eight streams) resolution sampling scheme would alter the results of a space‐for‐time substitution. We determined that predicted flow alterations would decrease stream resource and consumer quantity and quality, which can alter stream function, as well as biomass and habitat for freshwater, marine, and terrestrial consumers dependent on these resources.

Frazier, Abby G. (2019). Economic costs of drought in Hawai'i. Fact sheet. Honolulu: East-West Center.

The 2007-2014 drought in Hawai‘i was the longest and most severe drought on record in Hawai'i's history, costing millions of dollars in agricultural losses. The ranching sector alone lost an estimated $23 million. Drought also affects many other sectors, including tourism and recreation, wildfire control, and ecosystem services.

Frazier, Abby G., and Laura Brewington (2019). Alpine environments under threat in Hawai'i and New Zealand. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 11 November.

Frazier, Abby G., and Laura Brewington (2019). Current changes in alpine ecosystems of Pacific Islands. Elsevier.

Alpine ecosystems in Hawai‘i and New Zealand have significant cultural, social, and economic value; however, they are threatened by invasion of exotic species, climate change, and human impacts. Both New Zealand and Hawai‘i have experienced strong warming at higher elevations, and future projections indicate that these warming trends will continue. Glacial retreat has been noted in New Zealand's Southern Alps, with 34 percent of ice volume lost since 1977, and New Zealand may lose 88 percent of its ice volume by 2100. Snowfall on Hawai‘i’s mountain peaks is projected to almost entirely disappear by 2100. Changes are occurring rapidly, and additional monitoring and research are needed to conserve these uniquely sensitive, remote regions.

Frazier, Abby G., J.L. Deenik, N.D. Fujii, G.R. Funderburk, T.W. Giambelluca, C.P. Giardina, D.A. Helweg, Victoria W. Keener, A. Mair, John J. Marra, S. McDaniel, L.N. Ohye, D.S. Ok, E.W. Parsons, A.M. Strauch, and C. Trauernicht (2019). Managing effects of drought in Hawai‘i and U.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands. In J.M. Vose, D.L. Peterson, C.H. Luce, and T. Patel-Weynand, eds. Effects of drought on forests and rangelands in the United States: Translating science into management responses. Gen. Tech. Rep. WO-98. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, pp. 95–121.

Drought is a signifcant climate feature in Hawai‘i and the U.S.-affliated Pacifc Islands, at times causing severe impacts across multiple sectors. Below-average rainfall is often accompanied by higher-than-average temperatures and reduced cloud cover, exacerbating the effects on both agricultural and natural systems. Reduced water supply due to drought also has social and economic consequences. Better resource management can help alleviate drought-related social and biophysical stress on natural and human systems. At the same time, Pacifc Island cultures benefit from traditional knowledge and community-based approaches that have supported communities during drought periods over thousands of years.

Gingerich, S.B., A.G. Johnson, S.N. Rosa, M.D. Marineau, S.A. Wright, L.E. Hay, M.J. Widlansky, J.W. Jenson, C.I. Wong, J.L. Banner, Victoria W. Keener, and Melissa L. Finucane (2019). Water resources on Guam—Potential impacts of and adaptive response to climate change. U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2019–5095. Washington, D.C.: USGS.

Projected average temperature increases, and average rainfall decreases will lead to reduced streamflow in southern Guam and reduced groundwater recharge to the Northern Guam Lens Aquifer (NGLA). By following mitigation strategies to increase reservoir water availability, the withdrawal rate can be increased by 1.7 percent if the water-supply intakes are lowered 5 ft, by 3.5 percent if the spillway height is raised 5 ft, and by 5.3 percent if both strategies are combined.

Grecni, Zena, Leah Shore, and Benét Duncan (2019). Learning from success in climate-informed cecision-making: case studies across three U.S. regions. Honolulu: East-West Center.

This report, prepared by a network of sustained assessment specialists created within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (NOAA RISA) program, describes five case studies of successful local responses to climate change that are supported by scientific information. They include improving local climate-adaptation efforts in San Angelo, Texas, enhancing the resilience of iconic coastal ecosystems on Hawai‘i Island, managing water in the Colorado River Conservation District, increasing conservation resilience in the southern Great Plains, and using El Niño forecasts to plan for drought in the Pacific Islands.

Harwit, Eric (2019). WeChat and the growth of China’s indigenous internet. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 11 January.

Hurni, Kaspar, Jamon Van Den Hoek and Jefferson Fox (2019). Assessing the spatial, spectral, and temporal consistency of topographically corrected Landsat time series composites across the mountainous forests of Nepal. Remote Sensing of Environment. 231:111225.

In this article, we present a novel framework for evaluating topographically corrected image composites using cloud computing. We evaluated six topographic correction methods (Bin Tan, C-Correction, Minnaert with slope, Sun-Canopy-Sensor plus C-Correction, Statistical-Empirical, and Variable Empirical Coefficient Algorithm) in forest areas of four Landsat footprints in Nepal for a time series of image composites from 1988 to 2016. Our evaluation shows that the Statistical-Empirical topographic correction method provides the best overall performance, but other methods show the best performance for some years and footprints. We discuss these differences and related reasons and give recommendations on the best use and evaluation of topographic correction methods.

Keener, Victoria, S.B. Gingerich, and Melissa Finucane (2019). Guam's water resources. Honolulu: East-West Center, Pacific RISA.

Keener, Victoria, S.B. Gingerich, and Melissa Finucane (2019). Freshwater availability in Guam with projected changes in climate. Honolulu: East-West Center.

Lee, Ronald, and Andrew Mason (2019). Analyzing population ageing and intergenerational redistribution: NTA and AGENTA. In  Bernhard Hammer, Ronald Lee, Alexia Prskawetz, and Miguel Sanchez-Romero, eds. Special issue on Population Aging and Intergenerational Redistribution, Vienna Yearbook of Population Research. 17:1-5. 

Longman, R.J., Abby G. Frazier, A.J. Newman, T.W. Giambelluca, D. Schanzenbach, A.K. Kagawa-Viviani, H.L. Needham, J.R. Arnold,  and M.P. Clark (2019). High-resolution gridded daily rainfall and temperature for the Hawaiian Islands (1990-2014). Journal of Hydrometeorology. 20(3).

A distance-weighted interpolation method used to map daily rainfall and temperature in Hawaii is described and assessed. The methods presented here provide an effective approach for mapping daily weather fields in a topographically diverse region and improve on previous products in their spatial resolution, time period of coverage, and use of data.

Lulu, Fan, and Boy Lüthje (2019). Taobao villages: Rural E-commerce and low-end manufacturing in China. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 31 July.

Mason, Andrew, and Sang-Hyop Lee (2019). Demographic dividends: Policies based on an understanding of population dynamics will help countries achieve the SDGs. In SDGs: Transforming our world. 2019 edition. United Nations Association. UK.

Taking advantage of the opportunities and responding to the challenges presented by the demographic transition require forward-looking policies that take account of population dynamics. The success of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which pledges that no one will be left behind, is strongly bound to anticipating and planning for the effects of the demographic transition that will unfold during the SDG period.

Mason, Andrew, and Sang-Hyop Lee (2019). Macroeconomic impacts and policies in aging societies. In Aging societies: Policies and perspectives. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute.

Will population aging lead to an economic crisis with tepid economic growth, generational inequality, unsustainable public finances, and overly burdened families? Answering these questions definitively requires data and analysis that have not been available in many countries. The evidence that is available, however, indicates that countries with moderate population aging can pursue policies that will capitalize on the benefits and minimize the costs of population aging. Countries with very low fertility and a severely aging population will likely face serious economic challenges.

Mason, Andrew, and Sang-Hyop Lee (2019). The economic impact of population aging: How should policymakers respond? East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 1 March.

Mason, Andrew, Sang-Hyop Lee, Ronald Lee, and Gretchen Donehower (2019). Macroeconomics and policies in aging societies. In David Bloom, ed. Live long and prosper? The economics of ageing populations. Washington, DC: Center for Economic and Policy Research.

McNally, Christopher (2019). Theorizing Sino-capitalism: Implications for the study of comparative capitalisms. Contemporary Politics. 25(3): 313–33.

Morrison, Charles E., and Daniel Chinen (2019). Millennial+ voices in Okinawa: An inquiry into the attitudes of young adults toward the presence of U.S. bases. Honolulu: East-West Center and United States-Japan Foundation.

Many young adults on Okinawa have mixed feeling about the U.S. bases and are often more concerned with other issues such as jobs, the economy, and the possibility of natural disasters. This report recommends that the U.S. military’s public outreach programs should be reviewed with younger people in mind and should take advantage of the desire for more base contact.

Morrison, Charles E., and Mark Nuttall (2019). New U.S. policies toward Greenland. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 27 September.

Noland, Marcus (2019). Alliances under stress: South Korea, Japan, and the United States. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 19 November.

Noland, Marcus (2019). Interpreting American public opinion on international trade: How should Asia respond? East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 23 August.

Noland, Marcus (2019). Japan considers a National Economic Council. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 5 February.

Noland, Marcus (2019). Protectionist trade policy dampens US economy and risks conflict with Asia. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 8 January.

Roy, Denny (2019). Assertive China: Irredentism or expansionism? Survival: Global Politics and Strategy. 61(1): 51–74.

Roy, Denny (2019). COVID-19 crisis reveals the CCP's true colors. The Japan Times. 6 March.

Roy, Denny (2019). North Korea goes nuclear: A postmortem. The Diplomat. 21 November.

Roy, Denny (2019). How China uses money to control political discourse. Washington Times. 11 November.

Roy, Denny (2019). Taiwan's potential role in the free and open Indo-Pacific strategy: Convergence in the South Pacific. Seattle, WA: National Bureau of Asian Research.

This report examines the role of the Pacific Islands in Taiwan’s grand strategy and argues that Taiwan’s struggle to maintain formal diplomatic relations with these states dovetails with the United States’ reformulated Indo-Pacific strategy, even if Washington has yet to articulate a clear plan for coordinating activities in the South Pacific with Taipei.

Roy, Denny (2019). US strategy toward China: Three key questions for policymakers. PacNet30. Honolulu, HI: Pacific Forum.

China’s economic development holds many potential benefits for the international community, but there are downside risks for the US associated with China’s rise. A US strategy for protecting itself hinges on three fundamental questions: Is China ascending to regional hegemony?, Would the harm to US interests caused by a Chinese hegemony justify the cost of trying to thwart this outcome?, and What is the most efficient US strategy for preventing a form of Chinese domination that would undermine US well-being?

Roy, Denny (2019). Why Xi Jinping can't sell China's 'One Nation' strategy. The National Interest. 28 October.

Saksena, Sumeet, Chinh Cong Tran, and Jefferson Fox (2019). Tree planting and cooking fuel in Vietnam: A case of unintended consequences. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 24 May.

Salim, Wilmar, Keith Bettinger, and Micah Fisher (2019). Jakarta's 'Great Garuda' project: Profits for re-emerging elites in the name of climate change. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 21 June.

Salim, Wilmar, Keith Bettinger, and Micah Fisher (2019). Maladaption on the waterfront: Jakarta's growth coalition and the Great Garuda. Environment and Urbanization ASIA. 10(1): 63–80.

The capital city of Indonesia, Jakarta, faces chronic flooding which has been and will continue to be exacerbated by climate change processes. In response to this threat, the government has devised a megaproject solution, the so-called Great Garuda project. We describe how this project fails to address the root causes of flooding in Jakarta and show how the project is a channel through which politically connected economic elites of the Suharto regime can reconstitute "growth coalitions"’ to benefit from privileged access to development contracts and concessions.

Shimizu, Mika and Allen L. Clark (2019). Nexus of resilience and public policy in a moderen risk society. Singapore: Springer Nature.

This book integrates the latest theoretical insights on public policy and resilience and the latest practical analyses of case studies, such as the Tohoku Disaster in 2011 and Hurricane Sandy in 2012, to provide policy tools for future resilient societies and disaster risk management.

Shirai, Yuko, Stephen Leisz, Jefferson Fox, and Terry Rambo (2019). Commuting distances to local non-farm workplaces and out-migration: The case of Northeast Thailand. Asia Pacific Viewpoint. 60(3): 280–95.

Showalter, Kevin, David López-Carr, and Daniel Ervin (2019). Climate change and perceived vulnerability: Gender, heritage, and religion predict risk perception and knowledge of climate change in Hawaii. The Geographical Bulletin. 60(1): 49-71.

This study explored climate change-related risk perception among residents of the ‘Big Island’ of Hawaii. Results reveal relationships between risk perceptions for climate change and gender, with women significantly more aware of the risks posed by climate change.

Tsuya, Noriko O., Minja Kim Choe, and Feng Wang (2019). Convergence to very low fertility in East Asia: Processes, causes, and implications.  Tokyo: Springer Japan.

Three countries in East Asia—Japan, South Korea, and mainland China—now have among the lowest levels of human fertility in the world. The shift to very low fertility has ushered in an era of entirely new demographic dynamics, including rapid and extreme population aging and ensuing dramatic population decline. This book provides a systematic comparison of fertility transitions in these three East Asian countries, discusses the economic, social, and cultural factors that may account for their similarities and differences, and concludes with a discussion of policy implications.

Woods, Kevin M. (2019). Green territoriality: Conservation as state territorialization in a resource frontier. Human Ecology. 47(2): 217–32.

This paper explores how global conservation projects carried out in forest frontiers under rebel authority can serve to assert state control over resource-rich territories and populations, based on a two-year field case study in a global biodiversity hotspot under armed conflict and inhabited by Karen in southeastern Myanmar. Findings reveal how military offensives, economic concessions, and conservation activities threaten to bring state agencies, administration, and management into rebel forests where the local population fled from war but have not yet returned. These findings highlight the importance of integrating conservation activities in conflict-affected areas with humanitarian assistance, land restitution, and livelihood rehabilitation.

Woods, Kevin M. (2019). In Myanmar, conflicts over land and natural resources block the peace process. East-West Wire. Honolulu: East-West Center. 29 January.

Woods, Kevin M. (2019). Rubber out of the ashes: Locating Chinese agribusiness investments in ‘armed sovereignties’ in the Myanmar-China borderlands. Territory, Politics, Governance. 7(1):79–95.

Since the mid-2000s, mainland Chinese companies have invested in large-scale agribusiness concessions in northern Myanmar, often partnering with local armed "strongmen," many of whom were or still are involved in the illicit drug trade. Case study data demonstrate how China’s contemporary cross-border investments have extended Myanmar’s national political authority within the arc of armed sovereignties. Chinese-backed agricultural estates, whether awarded to paramilitary militias or rebel leaders under ceasefires, acted as state territorial interventions and led to incremental Myanmar state-building outcomes. The study traces how China’s current land-based investments have reawakened the borderland’s legacy of political violence and reconfigured armed sovereignties closer towards Myanmar’s military state.

Wu, David (2019 forthcoming). グローバル政治におけるディアスポラ汎中国料理の創出. In K. Iwama, ed. Chinese Cuisine in East-Asia. Tokyo: Institute of East-Asian Studies, Keio University.

Yokying, Phanwin, and Isabel Lambrecht (2019). Landownership and the gender gap in agriculture: Disappointing insights from Northern Ghana. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1847. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

This paper analyzes how land ownership is associated with agency and achievements in agriculture among female and male farmers in northern Ghana, a region transitioning from customary land tenure without individual ownership rights towards a more individualized and market-based tenure system. Our estimates indicate that landownership is positively correlated with men’s and women’s agency in agriculture, namely in decisions on agricultural cultivation and membership in agricultural associations. Yet, we also find that gender gaps in participation in cultivation decisions, the use of agricultural earnings, and agricultural workload persist among those who own land. While the results underscore the importance of land as a resource that can enhance women’s agency, they also point out that policies aiming to solely advance land rights may not be sufficient to eradicate or even reduce gender inequality in agriculture.

Full Lists of Publications by East-West Center Authors

* Publications on Environmental Issues

* Publications on Population and Health

* Publications on Innovation, Economic Integration, and Growth

* Publications on Governance, Security, and Justice


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