East-West Center Research in the News


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17 November 2021—Holiday gatherings return but caution urged, Honolulu Star-Advertiser: Tim Brown

Tim Brown, an infectious disease modeler for the East-West Center in Manoa, warned that holiday gatherings and travel can potentially lead to another surge, and that as many safety precautions as possible should be taken in Hawaii. “If someone is coming in from the mainland, get them tested,” Brown said. “If you’re going to the mainland and coming back, make sure you’re tested when you’re back.” Brown’s advice is to get rapid COVID-19 tests and to have everyone tested before entering a home for a gathering. “That’s the best way to keep Gramma safe,” he said.

14 November 2021—COVID-19 boosters counter waning efficacy, officials say, Honolulu Star-Advertiser: Tim Brown

The issue of waning vaccines comes as no surprise to Tim Brown, an infectious disease modeler and senior fellow at the East-West Center in Manoa, who monitored studies from Israel and Singapore several months ago with similar results.
Brown said Hawaii is in a “sweet spot” right now, where the majority of the adult population has been vaccinated, which, combined with those who acquired immunity through infection, puts the state in a good position.

12 November 2021—Biden, Xi Support APEC Declaration Ahead of US-China Summit, Voice of America: Charles E. Morrison

The Glasgow statement moves the two countries significantly back toward a cooperative relationship in the many areas where Biden and Xi have complementary or similar interests, said Charles Morrison, adjunct senior fellow at the East-West Center, a research group established by the U.S. Congress in 1960 to strengthen relations among the peoples of Asia, the Pacific and the United States.

“What I would like to see is a collaborative examination of where they have common ground and next an implementation strategy,” Morrison added.

10 November 2021—Self-apotheosis doesn't make Xi a good leader, Asia Times: Denny Roy

Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping’s relentless campaign of personal political aggrandizement was on display this week as the Chinese Communist Party’s 376-member Central Committee met for its Sixth Plenum.  The result, as expected, was more official promotion of Xi’s status as an equal of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping within the historical pantheon of People’s […]

30 October 2021—A Xi-Biden summit: What to expect, Straits Times: Denny Roy

The US government's announcement that President Joe Biden and Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping will meet in a virtual summit meeting before the end of the year creates hope of an improvement in China-US relations after months of what many observers have called a "new Cold War".

24 October 2021—Xi Jinping’s top five foreign policy mistakes, Asia Times: Denny Roy

Xi Jinping’s aggressive foreign policy is stimulating increased international opposition to the Chinese Communist Party’s agenda, undoing years of effort by People’s Republic of China officials to assure regional governments that a stronger China will be peaceful and non-domineering.

19 October 2021—Editorial: Bringing back pre-travel testing? Honolulu Star-Advertiser: Tim Brown

Dr. Tim Brown, epidemiologist from the East-West Center, said COVID-19 protections have helped drive a decline in infections. He also said, on Monday’s Star-Advertiser “Spotlight Hawaii” webcast, that there is a 20% share of the population still vulnerable and able to fuel another spike, so he would favor bringing back pre-travel testing for all inbound travelers, vaccinated or not.

19 October 2021—Mayor: No county-specific rules on tap for Oct. 31, West Hawaii Today: Tim Brown

On the other hand, the state and county should be cautious about opening up too quickly, said Tim Brown, research fellow at the University of Hawaii’s East-West Center, during a livestreamed interview Monday.

“If we lift some restrictions and wait a couple weeks and nothing changes, then we should move to the next step,” Brown said. “Lifting the restrictions all at once would be potentially very hazardous.”

18 October 2021—Trick-or-treating gets a green light this year as COVID-19 cases fall, Honolulu Star-Advertiser: Tim Brown

“The situation has definitely improved, there is very little question of that,” said infectious disease expert Tim Brown on the Honolulu Star-Advertiser’s “Spotlight Hawaii” livestream program on Monday. Brown attributed the decline in cases to the increase in vaccination, continued mask- wearing and the increased levels of natural immunity that have been obtained as the delta variant spread rapidly through the unvaccinated population.

18 October 2021—Infectious disease expert Tim Brown of the East-West Center joins the Honolulu Star-Advertiser’s ‘Spotlight Hawaii,’:Honolulu Star-Advertiser: Tim Brown

Infectious disease expert Tim Brown of the East-West Center joined the Honolulu Star-Advertiser’s “Spotlight Hawaii” livestream show today to answer viewer questions. The series shines a spotlight on issues affecting the Hawaiian Islands.

14 October 2021—Asia-Pacific security expert on growing US-China and Taiwan-China tensions, Hawaii Public Radio: Denny Roy

What a month it has been as tensions between China and Taiwan take to the skies and allies, including the U.S., watch developments closely. Over the weekend, China marked the anniversary of its Communist Party with tough talk, threatening Taiwan.

What to make of the posturing? Is China really preparing to attack Taiwan? East-West Center Senior Fellow Denny Roy focuses on Asia-Pacific security issues and thinks the answer is no.

13 October 2021—State epidemiologist says COVID-19 was 'far deadlier than the flu,' Hawaii Public Radio: Tim Brown

“If you actually look at the reporting on flu, there's virtually no flu reported in the last year," said Tim Brown, an epidemiologist and a senior research fellow at the East-West Center. Brown appeared on The Conversation on Monday.

11 October 2021—Local epidemiologist says Oʻahu's relaxed COVID-19 rules are cautious enough, The Conversation (Hawaii Public Radio): Tim Brown

"I think they took a comparatively conservative approach to opening up, which I believe is the proper way to do this. Delta is extremely contagious and that means even at the vaccination levels we're at right now, you can still see very, very rapid growth," Brown told Hawaiʻi Public Radio. "So I think we do have to be cautious, we have to monitor this carefully. But I think what they're doing with outdoor events is a step in the right direction."

10 October 2021—Free The Covid Cluster Data. Tell Us Where Outbreaks Are Occurring, Honolulu Civil Beat: Tim Brown

“I understand the arguments about anonymity, but we’re in a public health emergency,” says Brown. “We need detail and depth to understand the context in which Covid was contracted. We need to give people enough information so they can act on it.” Brown would like to see DOH produce an aggregated, comprehensive report that tracks all cluster data for the last six months and details the conditions under which transmission occurred.

1 October 2021— Lawmakers, parents frustrated over governor’s decision to continue ban on fans at UH gamesHawaii News Now: Tim Brown

However, Dr. Tim Brown, senior fellow of the East-West Center thinks the governor is right to be cautious.

“Remember, people have a much higher viral load with delta. So, they transmit much more easily and that’s extremely important to keep in mind,” Brown said. “So no, I do not consider outdoor crowds to be safe at this point.”

Brown said the return to normal will come, but we shouldn’t rush it.

“Open up with a relatively low number of people in the stands, require vaccination, require masking, ban food and drinks and require social distancing,” said Brown. “Monitor whether or not people are adhering to those requirements during the game.”

1 October 2021—‘These are not statistics’: Deadliest month of the pandemic in Hawaii comes to a close with 193 fatalities, Hawaii News Now: Tim Brown

“That is a very, very high death rate in one month,” said Tim Brown, East-West Center senior fellow. “These are not statistics, these are family who have died leaving the family behind and grieving.”

“Typically what they find is the average is around 17 to 18 days from the time when you start getting symptoms or get diagnosed until you die,” said Brown.

“Any death of that sort is a real shame. We often lose sight of the human dimension of this.”

30 September 2021—$6.36M supports Pacific climate change resilience, UH News

The University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa Water Resources Research Center will work with the East-West Center, Arizona State University (ASU) and other stakeholders to kickoff the next phase of NOAA’s Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (Pacific RISA) program.

30 September 2021—ASU receives $6.36M grant to launch Pacific Island research center, Arizona State University News: Victoria Keener, Laura Brewington

“With our network of stakeholders from over a decade of use-inspired research, this expanded partnership between ASU, the East-West Center and the University of Hawaiʻi positions the program to implement new adaptation initiatives for climate impacts and extremes across the region,” said Brewington.

28 September 2021—Climate Education month across UH features public forums, UH News: Wendy Miles

The University of Hawaiʻi Office of Sustainability will present in October Climate Education Month 2021, a series of interactive online public forums exploring sustainability and resilience. Register online for the series and receive more information.

15 September 2021—Event on climate action in Hawaiʻi features internationally acclaimed scientist, UH News: Victoria Keener

As Hawaiʻi’s state delegation prepares for the upcoming United Nations climate summit, or COP26, in Scotland this November, the University of Hawaiʻi and the state climate commission are organizing a series of events to connect climate diplomacy with state and local action.

13 September 2021—How firm is Biden's commitment to be Asia-Pacific's top dog?, The Straits Times: Denny Roy

Under the pressure of burgeoning Chinese power, American strategists are debating whether the United States should continue trying to be the strongest and most influential power in the Asia-Pacific region.

13 September 2021—Climate change: a new arena of US-China tension, Asia Times: Denny Roy

It seems irrational that a collection of political disagreements could prevent the world’s two strongest states from cooperating to prevent the planet they share from becoming uninhabitable. Sadly, history presents several cases of societies that destroyed themselves through poor stewardship of their natural environment.

In some instances, elites pursued political conflicts at the expense of resource conservation, with the eventual result of desolating their own homelands. On Rapa Nui (Easter Island), for example, competition between chiefs to build more impressive moai caused catastrophic deforestation, as transporting the huge blocks of stone required logs as rollers.

9 September 2021—‘Strategic distraction’: 9/11 took America’s eye off Asia as China hit its military stride, Stars and Stripes: Denny Roy

In April 2001, a Chinese J-8 fighter jet collided with a U.S. Navy EP-3 reconnaissance plane as it flew near China’s southern island province of Hainan.

The Chinese pilot died during bailout, and the crippled Navy aircraft made an emergency landing on Hainan, where the 24 crew members were detained and questioned before being released after an 11-day diplomatic standoff between Beijing and Washington.

The crisis was the first faced by a recently sworn-in President George W. Bush, who during the 2000 presidential campaign had promised to deal with China as a competitor rather than as a “strategic partner.”

8 September 2021—Mu variant detected in Hawaii, but threat is low now, Honolulu Star-Advertiser: Tim Brown

The mu variant of the coronavirus, which may be better at evading protections offered by the available vaccines, has been found in nearly every state, including Hawaii, where its prevalence is second only to Alaska, according to data from Scripps Research.

The variant has been flagged by the World Health Organization as a “variant of interest,” and Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said recently that it’s something officials are “keeping a close eye on.”

But local health experts say they don’t consider the variant to be a particular threat right now.

7 September 2021—Delta variant, lack of restrictions will bring Hawaii hospitals to brink soon, expert says, Honolulu Star-Advertiser: Tim Brown

Brown, a senior fellow at the East-West Center in Manoa, believes that far more stringent measures were needed sooner rather than later to stop the skyrocketing number of COVID-19 cases and the increasing strain on hospitals in Hawaii.

“Where we are now is already concerning enough that I think we need to be taking more aggressive measures to bring this under control,” said Brown during a Honolulu Star-Advertiser Spotlight Hawaii conversation on Monday.

6 September 2021—Tim Brown, East-West Center senior fellow, joins the Honolulu Star-Advertiser’s Spotlight Hawaii, Honolulu Star-Advertiser: Tim Brown

Tim Brown, a senior fellow at the East-West Center, joined Spotlight Hawaii, a series from the Honolulu Star-Advertiser that shines a spotlight on issues affecting our islands, today for a livestream video and took viewer questions.

1 September 2021—With some still hesitant about the vaccine, doctors examine effectiveness of Regeneron treatment, Hawaii News Now: Tim Brown

“So many more of the unvaccinated end up infected,” said Dr. Tim Brown of East-West Center Senior Fellow. “And number two, the unvaccinated also remained with a higher viral load for an extended period, which means that they will be capable of developing new variants for a much longer period of time than vaccinated individuals.”

Brown said the viral load for a vaccinated person is 4-5 days, but for the unvaccinated, it’s more than double that, 10 to 11 days.
Brown said vaccines by themselves are just a part of the solution adding that masking and improved ventilation can help prevent the spread.

30 August 2021—Hawaii disease expert says booster shots are working well, KHON2: Tim Brown

“What they found is that the boosters are producing about a tenfold reduction in the level of breakthrough infections, and also a tenfold reduction in the level of severe illness from those breakthrough infections,” East-West Center senior fellow Dr. Tim Brown said.

27 August 2021—Discussion with Dr. Tim Brown, Facebook Live with Mel & Charlie: Tim Brown

19 August 2021—Clark welcomes new tenure-track and visiting faculty for 2020–21 academic year, Targeted News Service via Nexis Uni: Abby Fraizer

Clark University is pleased to welcome new faculty members for the 2021-22 academic year, who bring a wealth of knowledge and experience to areas including psychology, music, geography, management, and -- particularly our colleagues from Becker College -- interactive media design.

18 August 2021—Chinese Hackers Used Cyber-disguising Technology Against Israel, Report Finds, Voice of America: Denny Roy

Denny Roy, a senior fellow at the Washington-based East-West Center research organization, told VOA that this is an indication of the depth of China’s commitment to cybertheft as part of China’s national development strategy: The top leadership blesses it despite the possibility of offending important trade or political partners, in this case, Israel.    

“It suggests Chinese hubris — that Beijing thinks China’s economic importance to the world allows China to get away with almost anything. The more China aspires to be a global great power, the more it will encounter contradictory pressures in its foreign policy, such as trying to simultaneously portray itself as a friend to both Israel and Iran,” Roy added.

18 August 2021—Afghanistan Fiasco Does Not Destroy US Credibility in Asia-Pacific, The Diplomat: Denny Roy

The disturbing scenes from the chaotic collapse of the U.S.-backed government in Afghanistan, along with fears of the hardships that may await the Afghan people with the return of Taliban rule, have provoked hot takes that focus on U.S. “abandonment” and “betrayal.”  In particular, many analysts emphasize the adverse consequences the Afghanistan withdrawal will have for broader and longer-term U.S. foreign policy goals. They argue that U.S. strategic reliability is now in question, that U.S. guarantees to security partners are no longer credible, and that the United States has lost its “resolve.”

15 August 2021—Hawaiians Look to Tradition to Cope With Climate Change, Voice of America News: Victoria Keener

“Some rainfall is on average going up over time. Some is going down,” said Victoria Keener, who studies climate change and natural resource management at Honolulu’s East-West Center. “In Hawaii, we’ve actually seen drying out,” with increased fire risk in parts of the islands and more rapid warming and environmental changes at higher elevations, she said.

Unstable weather triggered severe storms and flooding on Maui and other islands in March, destroying homes and bridges and providing a preview, scientists said, of what can happen in the future.

Moreover, climate change has additional consequences, Keener said, contaminating “groundwater wells near the coast,” harming agriculture and threatening infrastructure.

15 August 2021—Epidemiologist: COVID-19 vaccine less effective against delta variant, KITV4: Tim Brown

"We are clearly in a far worse situation than we ever were last year. And yet last year, we're going to pull out all the stops and basically do everything we could to stop it now," he (Brown) said. "Right now at the rate we're going up, there are going to be severe demands in a two to three week period on our entire medical system. And we are going to see people with heart attacks people with strokes, people with accidents, who will not be able to get appropriate care. And that is not acceptable in the state of Hawaii, as far as I'm concerned."

15 August 2021—Infectious disease expert says stricter measures are needed to stop the delta variant in Hawaii, Honolulu Star-Advertiser: Tim Brown

Infectious disease expert Tim Brown believes that far more stringent measures are needed to stop the upward spiral of daily new coronavirus cases in Hawaii.

The Delta variant is a game changer, according to Brown, given the median viral load is up to 1,000 times higher than the original COVID-19 strains, making it almost twice as transmissible as the virus that drove last year’s epidemic.

13 August 2021—Some public health experts want Governor David Ige to shut down Hawaii for 30 days, KITV4: Tim Brown

"The government has to set out restrictions, where the vaccine gets you things that you won't get if you're not vaccinated," Dr. Brown said.

And if the state doesn't want to stop travel -- experts suggest reimposing the pretravel testing requirement and cut the tourism numbers by half.

"It's amazing to me that last year with far fewer cases, we were willing to impose a lockdown this year. We're not willing to do anything when we've got an average of 729 cases per day for the last three days," Dr. Brown said.

12 August 2021—Hawaii infectious disease expert warns pandemic could last at least 2 more years, Hawaii News Now: Tim Brown

“I’m going to close with telling you something you don’t want to hear,” said Dr. Tim Brown, a senior fellow at the East-West Center and an infectious disease expert, at the end of his Zoom presentation last week.

“When will this pandemic be over? It ain’t going to be at the end of this year. It probably ain’t going to be at the end of next year. Honest truth we are in the long haul with COVID. You are looking at probably another two to three years of dealing with this,” he said during his presentation.

11 August 2021—Experts say limiting Hawaii gatherings not enough to stop surge of coronavirus, KHON2: Tim Brown

“We need to go back to doing something similar to the bubbles that we were using last year, where you hang together with a limited number of people, primarily from your household and maybe a small additional group,” said Tim Brown, a senior research fellow at the East-West Center.

10 August 2021—Gov. David Ige looking at new COVID-19 restrictions for Hawaii, Honolulu Star-Advertiser: Tim Brown

Top state state officials previously believed that achieving a 70% vaccination rate could be enough to achieve herd immunity, a level of vaccination that largely prevents the virus from spreading. With the delta variant, the threshold could be as high as 85% to 90%, according to Tim Brown, an infectious-disease modeler and senior fellow at the East-West Center.

6 August 2021—'Delta Variant Has Literally Changed the Game,' Says Epidemic Tracking Expert, Hawaii Public Radio: Tim Brown

BROWN: Fundamentally Delta has literally changed the game with this because it has increased its transmissibility so much. So in a lot of countries where previous levels of masking and social distancing were being effective, for example, in Taiwan or Thailand, we are now seeing major outbreaks of COVID, because of the Delta variant.

31 July 2021— Xi Jinping Thought on Diplomacy, Association of Accredited Public Policy Advocates: Denny Roy

Xi’s views on diplomacy are noteworthy not for their brilliance, but rather as a barometer for what Beijing thinks is appropriate external behavior for China. Although Xi Jinping Thought on Diplomacy is an exercise in public relations by Beijing intended to win over the international community, a close reading of it still provides plenty of cause for the rest of the world to be concerned about China’s growing global influence and impact.

31 July 2021—Zheng He's voyages - the sequel, The Straits Times: Denny Roy

On July 11, China observed its National Maritime Day which, since 2005, has commemorated the first long-distance voyage to South and South-east Asia by the Chinese eunuch admiral Zheng He in the year 1405.

29 July 2021—APEC forum leaders’ meeting reaffirms commitment to close collaboration, Penza News: Denny Roy

Denny Roy, Senior Fellow at East-West Center, expert on Northeast Asian international security issues, the extraordinary summit demonstrated the group can flexibly respond to an emergency.

“Nevertheless, US-China tensions were the inescapable backdrop for the meeting. The meeting could have been an opportunity for a first face-to-face interaction between Biden and Xi Jinping, albeit virtually and as part of a group, but Xi Jinping’s remarks to the meeting were pre-recorded. Perhaps part of the reason Xi Jinping did it this way was to retaliate for Biden not yet meeting with him since Biden became president,” the expert said.

26 July 2021—South Korea Too Preoccupied with Survival to be Asia’s Sweden, The National Interest: Denny Roy

South Korea’s circumstances may garner sympathy and a measure of respect, but they are not conducive to the country gaining global recognition as a transcendent authority on how to improve the international system.

25 July 2021—Hawaii’s Safe Travels Program Won’t Likely Be Lifted Anytime in 2021, Honolulu Star-Advertiser: Tim Brown

“No, I don’t believe that’s a safe benchmark anymore,” said Dr. Tim Brown, an infectious disease modeler and senior fellow at the East-West Center, according to the Honolulu Star Advertiser. “It actually would have been a safe benchmark probably for the virus last year. It was low enough, effectively, at that point. The problem is, the more infectious the virus is, the higher the level of protection needed to reach so-called herd immunity.”
... “The seven-day average of new cases went vertical this week,” Brown said. “Most of the rest of the U.S. is going vertical too.”

7 July 2021—2020 saw a baby bust in Hawaii. But declining fertility rates are poised to ‘last forever,’ Hawaii News Now: Andy Mason

Andrew Mason, a senior fellow at the East-West Center who studies population, demographics and aging, notes many of the factors contributing to record low fertility rates in Hawaii and the US are — on their face — positive. Women have more opportunities in the workplace. Teen pregnancies are way down. Family planning resources are more accessible. But taken together, he said, those factors and more are helping to drive a radical shift — one that’s poised to have ramifications that will touch every corner of our daily lives.

30 June 2021—China and USA Not Full Partners on North Korea, The National Interest: Denny Roy

China’s importance to any process for bringing about peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula is undeniable. That makes China a potential partner of the USA, South Korea, and Japan, but also a potential spoiler. Beijing’s actual performance has been a combination of both roles.  “Partnership” implies working toward the same outcomes, but Beijing’s agenda for the Peninsula is clearly different from the agendas of Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo.

27 June 2021—The One Thing That North Korea Does Well Is Survive, The National Interest: Denny Roy

The ruling Kim regime of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) is on death watch again. The country faces a serious food shortage on top of pandemic fears and a recent cutoff of trade with China.

19 June 2021—Why Taiwan looms large for Japan, The Straits Times: Denny Roy

Normally careful about annoying China, Tokyo is moving closer to a policy stance that could scarcely be more abhorrent to Beijing: a commitment to help defend Taiwan against a possible Chinese military takeover attempt.

15 June 2021—Project Spotlight: Pacific Islands CASC Supports Drought Community of Practice in Hawai’i, US Geological Survey: Abby Fraizer, Ryan Longman

“We realized that we needed a much more formal way for researchers and managers to be communicating on drought,” says Frazier.

Their creation: the Pacific Drought Knowledge Exchange, a formal partnership between PI CASC-funded researchers and natural resource agencies in Hawaiʻi.

“We really wanted to demonstrate how we can provide easier access to drought climate information and data sources [in the Pacific],” says Frazier. “We wanted to provide better and more comprehensive information, improved technical assistance, and a more collaborative information transfer environment.”

14 June 2021—Study About Storms and Rainfall on Oʻahu To Improve Water Management, Maui Now: Ryan Longman

“If storm tracks are to shift poleward due to climate change, then we may see fewer cold fronts pass over the islands,” Longman said. “As a result, leeward areas that are dependent on disturbance driven rainfall could potentially become even drier in the future.”

14 June 2021—Better water management goal of storm, rainfall data analysis, University of Hawaiʻi News: Ryan Longman

“If storm tracks are to shift poleward due to climate change, then we may see fewer cold fronts pass over the islands. As a result, leeward areas that are dependent on disturbance driven rainfall could potentially become even drier in the future,” said Longman.

14 June 2021—Kona lows, other storm events make outsize contribution to state's rainfall, Yahoo! News: Ryan Longman

"If you have a lot of Kona low storms, you're going to have a wet year, " Longman said.

"Not only are you not receiving that rainfall from the crossing front ; you're actually getting conditions that are drier than what it usually is, " Longman said.

With climate scientists warning that storm tracks are shifting poleward due to climate change, it looks like the islands could see more noncrossing cold fronts in the future, Longman said And because leeward regions are dependent on storm events for much of their rainfall, he said, it appears those areas will be even drier as climate change becomes more prevalent.

12 June 2021—Biden puts pressure on G7 leaders on a unified approach to counter China, Emnetra: Denny Roy

However, there is no guarantee that Biden will be able to convince the remaining G7 partners to take concrete action.

Denny Roy, a senior fellow at the East-West Center, said all G7 members were “willing to oppose China as much as Washington demands.” South China Morning Post..

“Most people want to have a constructive economic relationship while quietly opposed to certain Chinese practices,” Roy said. “Even Japan, which is generally hawkish against China, is hesitant to sign sanctions against China for Uighur abuse. Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.. “

12 June 2021—Biden to press G-7 leaders to adopt a unified approach to counter China’s rising influence, CNBC: Denny Roy

Not all G-7 members are “willing to be as confrontational toward China as Washington asks,” Denny Roy, a senior fellow at the East-West Center, told The South China Morning Post.  

“Most would rather have a constructive economic relationship while quietly opposing certain Chinese practices,” Roy said. “Even Japan, which is generally hawkish toward China, has been hesitant to sign on to sanctions against China over the mistreatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang.”

10 June 2021—G7 to roll out green rival to belt and road with US rallying support to confront China, South China Morning Post: Denny Roy

The Group of Seven is set to roll out a green initiative to rival Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative at a summit in Britain this week, as the leaders look towards the post-pandemic recovery with a wary eye on a more assertive China.

3 June 2021—Biden Tasks Intelligence Community to Answer Wuhan Questions, Clearance Jobs: Denny Roy

The intelligence community has been tasked by President Biden to sleuth out what transpired in Wuhan, China in late-2019 at the root of the COVID-19 pandemic. While the tasking may seem to those unfamiliar with the ways of intelligence tasking as new, one may be assured this question has been on the operating directive of the entire intelligence community since early in the pandemic.

31 May 2021—Wuhan lab-leak theory is back with consequences, Asia Times: Denny Roy

Once widely dismissed as a conspiracy theory, the allegation that Covid-19 originated in a Chinese government laboratory in Wuhan is gaining renewed attention.

According to this theory, Chinese scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) engineered the virus as part of a biological weapons program and the pandemic started when the virus escaped into the surrounding community.

14 May 2021—Tough sell for Moon in summit with Biden, The Straits Times: Denny Roy

Next week, South Korean President Moon Jae-in will have the opportunity to personally urge US President Joe Biden to expedite restarting negotiations with North Korea. Mr Moon's pitch will likely be unsuccessful.

6 May 2021—Trio of Nations May Counter Beijing's Vaccine Offer to India, Voice of America: Denny Roy

As India sets new daily records in COVID-19 deaths and infections, some experts see the humanitarian crisis as an opportunity for other nations to counter China's vaccine diplomacy elsewhere.

29 April 2021—Japan on the pointed horns of a China dilemma, Asia Times: Denny Roy

Japan’s China dilemma is intensifying. Japanese economic health is deeply dependent on the same country that increasingly threatens Japan’s security.  

The squeeze Japan is suffering does not result from a “security dilemma” or some other impersonal structural force of the international political system. It is the intended result of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) foreign policy.

23 April 2021—Questions abound as US grapples with Taiwan dilemma, The Straits Times: Denny Roy

As China in effect normalises crossing the median line in the Taiwan Strait - flying warplanes into Taiwan's air defence identification zone - the line that the United States has been walking with regard to China and Taiwan is becoming thinner, and questions abound.

20 April 2021—As ‘AAPI’ grows as label in US, Pacific Islanders point out uniqueness of their cultures and concerns, South China Morning Post: Mary Hattori

Asians living in America are under assault. Rarely a day passes without a report about someone of Chinese, Filipino, Thai or Indonesian descent being attacked or even killed. Legislation meant to address the onslaught is moving through Congress. And US President
Joe Biden has set up a task force, warning that “we have to act” to stem the tide of violence.

19 April 2021—U.S.-North Korea Relations will Follow Same Pattern Despite Coronavirus, The National Interest: Denny Roy

The most notable new development is that the outbreak of the coronavirus has pushed North Korea’s economic problems to a crisis level, even as Kim Jong-un continues to consolidate his nuclear deterrent by refining his delivery systems.

16 April 2021—Report: Japan’s PM to Visit India, Philippines to Strengthen Regional Ties, Voice of America: Denny Roy

Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga is expected visit India and the Philippines in late April, in a move to strengthen regional ties after meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden.

15 April 2021—UH campuses celebrate Earth Day 2021, University of Hawai'i News: Victoria Keener

The campuses of the University of Hawaiʻi are hosting a variety of programs and events to celebrate Earth Day 2021.

10 April 2021—Japan is less secure - despite improved US ties, The Straits Times: Denny Roy

The Japanese are rightly pleased that their Prime Minister, Mr Yoshihide Suga, will be the first foreign leader to meet United States President Joe Biden in person on April 16.

Japan was also the first foreign country visited by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin. This respectful treatment from the US, however, only partially offsets a generally deteriorating security situation for Japan.

7 April 2021—Honolulu mayor wants eased virus restrictions despite uptick, Associated Press: Tim Brown

HONOLULU (AP) — Honolulu’s mayor wants to change Oahu’s coronavirus guidelines to allow for less restrictions despite a growing number of COVID-19 cases on the island.

7 April 2021—Mayor Rick Blangiardi makes request to change Oahu’s tier criteria, Honolulu Star-Advertiser: Tim Brown

Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi, in the face of rising case counts, has set forth his intention to keep Oahu operating under Tier 3 rather than falling back to Tier 2. Blangiardi on Tuesday said he sent a request to Gov. David Ige asking that the criteria for Tier 3 be increased to a seven-day average case count of 50 to 100, which is what it currently is for Tier 2.

4 April 2021—Australia could be called on to defend Taiwan from China, News.com.au: Denny Roy

East-West Center senior fellow Denny Roy argues Beijing has other things on its mind. “To be sure, the PRC threat to Taiwan has grown steadily, and the trends are still adverse,” he writes. “For Taiwan and its friends, however, the situation is not as dire as portrayed by those warning that Beijing will soon opt for war.”

20 March 2021—Rumors of War in the Taiwan Strait, The Diplomat: Denny Roy

A war scare, rather than actual war, remains the optimal policy for the PRC. The top leadership may see it as a chance to “win without fighting,” and it demonstrates to the Chinese masses and potential political rivals that the Xi government is doing something to prod Taipei toward negotiating unification. Unfortunately for Taiwan’s people, even if the risk of war is low, persistent tension is the best they can hope for.

13 March 2021—Summit and high-level diplomacy signal Washington's Asia priorities, The Straits Times: Denny Roy

It lost momentum because China still seemed to pose more opportunity than threat, Dr Denny Roy, senior fellow at the East West Centre in Honolulu, told The Straits Times.

But, he added: "Now, each of the four has a stronger common interest in blocking Chinese expansionism, and the Quad looks more like a nascent alliance, with even India's traditional non-alignment less of an obstacle."

"Beijing now faces a new US leader who rallies rather than alienates his allies," Dr Roy said. "He is coordinating with important partners... before meeting with (Chinese President) Xi Jinping and before announcing a detailed US approach to China and North Korea."

4 March 2021—Livestream Next Week: Hearing on Insular Area Climate Change Act on Thursday, March 4, Public.: Zena Grecni

The full Committee, led by Chair Raúl M. Grijalva (D-Ariz.), will hold a legislative hearing to consider a discussion draft of the Insular Area Climate Change Act.

1 March 2021—US-South Korea ties: From crisis to muddling through,The Straits Times: Denny Roy

The danger of an existential crisis in the United States-South Korea alliance has passed. The Biden White House is not hankering for a break-up.

18 February 2021—Lieutenant Governor believes COVID-19 variants can be controlled in Hawaii, KITV4: Tim Brown

Dr. Tim Brown, an Epidemiologist with the East West Center at the University of Hawaii, says there's still a chance the UK variant becomes the dominant strain in Hawaii. "I think the real challenge is as we're scaling up vaccinations, we also need to be sustaining our masking or social distancing, so on, to make sure we don't give the virus more opportunities to spread because the more spread occurs, the more likely the variant can get a foothold and for it to evolve," Brown said.

13 February 2021—How China Squandered Its Chance for a Peaceful Rise, National Interest: Denny Roy

Chinese leaders have known for decades that the ideal circumstance for a “rising” China is for other powerful nations such as the United States to acquiesce rather than resist. Consequently, a major component of recent Chinese diplomacy has been reassurance: trying to persuade foreigners that China is in no way a threat to them.

31 January 2021—Los esfuerzos diplomáticos de Beijing porestablecer su rol en la pandemia, El Mercurio: Denny Roy

26 January 2021—Climate Change in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors, ReliefWeb: Zena Grecni, Wendy Miles, Victoria Keener

Hotter weather, stronger typhoons, coral reef death, and human health risks are among the major challenges detailed in a new report on climate change in the CNMI. Threatened resources include high-value coastal infrastructure and the millions of dollars that ocean ecosystems add to the CNMI economy annually, according to the report by the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA), a consortium of several government, NGO, and research entities.

25 January 2021—Molokai’s fabled Axis Deer are starving to death in droves, Honolulu Civil Beat: Abby Fraizer

For more than a century, the axis deer that roam Molokai have played an integral role on the island. Lately, however, those light-colored, spotted animals have fallen into disturbingly bad shape.

24 January 2021—Delaware folk politics shaped Biden, plus memories of him here, Honolulu Star-Advertiser: Charles E. Morrison

The mob attack on the U.S. Capitol and Joe Biden’s inauguration brought back memories of a simpler time and a young senator.

21 January 2021—Will Joe Biden meet Xi Jinping? China awaits clues to future of US relations, South China Morning Post: Denny Roy

Given that “threats” perceived during the Donald Trump administration had included China’s ruling Communist Party , it raises the question of whether early talks between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are feasible and could help fix a relationship at a 40-year low on nearly all fronts.

20 January 2021—Biden inherits qualified North Korea policy failure, Asia Times: Denny Roy

A more accurate assessment, however, is that Trump was as unsuccessful as his predecessor presidents in imposing America’s will on Pyongyang, although Trump’s lack of success was singularly spectacular. Trump set the world on edge when he threatened to use military force to stop North Korea’s nuclear ICBM development, but then had the dubious distinction of being in office when the DPRK apparently attained the critical capabilities.

13 January 2021—Power Dynamics, More Than Ideology, Drive US-China Tensions – Analysis, Eurasia Review: Denny Roy

During the recent US elections, for example, both major parties tried to position themselves as tough on China. Much of the criticism pointed to the ideology of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) as the root of poor US-China relations. On China’s part, Xi Jinping’s government has re-emphasized the threat that liberal democratic ideas pose to the CCP’s vision for the “great rejuvenation” of China, a vision premised on maintaining the party’s monopoly on national political power.

11 December 2020—Biden Administration Faces Daunting Task Of Rebuilding US Economic Diplomacy – Analysis, Eurasia Review: Marcus Noland

After four years of “America First,” the incoming Biden administration faces a formidable task in reviving US economic diplomacy to address national and global challenges. But fortunately for Biden, on many of these issues good policy and good politics coincide.

8 December 2020—Taiwan ban on Japanese food looks set to stay, The Japan Times: Denny Roy

“While political parties routinely politicize issues, as an American who is a lifetime consumer of U.S. beef and pork, it’s hard for me to think these products are harmful to the people of Taiwan,” said Denny Roy, senior fellow of the East-West Center in Hawaii.

4 December 2020—Attacking Australia, Beijing tries to win by losing, Asia Times: Denny Roy

Beijing’s current fight with Australia is proving counterproductive, damaging China’s standing not only with Australians but also with much of the international community. This raises the question of why Beijing has persisted in and even intensified an apparently losing policy. The answer relies on discerning Beijing’s motivations and objectives, which likely have little to do with forcing Canberra into submission.  

1 December 2020—FOCUS: Taiwan to address Japanese food ban, immediate end unlikely, Japan Economic Newswire via Nexis Uni: Denny Roy

Two years ago, Taiwan voters approved a referendum to continue a ban on food from five Japanese prefectures after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, but that ban seems unlikely to be lifted anytime soon. Of 10 million votes cast in the Nov. 24, 2018 referendum, approximately 78 percent favored keeping the ban in place. President Tsai Ing-wen said at the time that, despite opposing the referendum, she would respect the vote, and her government would continue barring Fukushima food imports for two years.

20 November 2020—China Should Follow Its Scholars’ Advice to Biden, The Diplomat: Denny Roy

Among the wave of unpetitioned advice offered to U.S. President-elect Joe Biden on crafting his policy toward Asia, some has come from China. In a November 17 piece in The Diplomat, Chinese think-tankers Junyang Hu and Dingding Chen offer Biden “suggestions” for improving U.S.-China relations.

19 November 2020—Climate Change in Guam: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors, ReliefWeb: Zena Grecni, Wendy Miles, Victoria Keener

“Climate change is one of the greatest issues this generation is facing, and how we adapt as an island should be based on the best available information and sound science,” said Guam Governor Lou Leon Guerrero. “We are pleased to have this resource to better inform policy and decision-making, so that we may safeguard our critical infrastructure, protect our economy, improve food security, and prepare for increased droughts and wildfires. That is why I have created a Climate Change and Resiliency Commission to provide a strategy for Guam to address the impacts of climate change to our island.”

17 November 2020—Public health expert says new statewide mask mandate still has a loophole, KHON2: Tim Brown

“All the person would have to do is go to court and say, ‘Your honor, nobody was within six feet of me. Therefore I did not have to wear a mask,'” said Tim Brown, East-West Center Senior Research Fellow. Brown adds that state lawmakers should go into special session, which is needed to change the law so violators can be issued a fine. He says the current penalty is not practical. “Because it tends to make these judges throw these cases out of court because they don’t intend to pose any penalties like that. Instead we really need to move to a simple fine of $100 or $150,” he said.

12 November 2020—What North Korea Wants from Joe Biden, The National Interest: Denny Roy

The Kim regime is surely disappointed that Biden is replacing Trump. The Biden campaign did not list de-nuclearizing North Korea as a priority issue. Furthermore,  Biden has signaled that his approach toward North Korea will be different from Trump’s in four major respects.  

10 November 2020—Few Visitors Volunteer To Take Maui, Kauai Second COVID-19 Tests, Hawaii Public Radio: Tim Brown

Kauai and Maui are encouraging trans-Pacific travelers to take a free, second COVID-19 test a few days after they arrive on the islands. It’s as an extra precaution to stem the spread of the virus -- but few are taking up the offer.

10 November 2020—Report: Climate change will disrupt Guamanians' lives, The Guam Daily Post: Zena Grecni, Wendy Miles, and Victoria Keener

A report released Tuesday states "climate change is expected to disrupt many aspects of life in Guam." "Hotter weather, risks to freshwater supplies, coral reef death, and stronger typhoons" are among the major challenges detailed in the new report, "Climate Change in Guam: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors."

9 November 2020—Biden’s China policy will upgrade Trump’s, Asia Times: Denny Roy

Many officials in Japan, India and some Southeast Asian countries are reportedly worried that a Joe Biden administration will be too weak in its dealings with China. These officials like Trump’s tough approach toward Beijing enough to forgive the sometimes awkward implementation.  Biden, by contrast, makes them fear a return of what they saw as a Barack Obama-era […]

6 November 2020—US Speeds Arms Sales for Taiwan as Island Revamps China Strategy, Voice of America (VOA): Denny Roy

Stronger frequency of sales would prepare China to accept them as routine, said Denny Roy, senior fellow at the East-West Center think tank in Honolulu. “Many U.S. officials are trying to make arms sales to Taiwan regular and routine, so that there is a steady pipeline flow, rather than a long buildup between each transaction which results in a major showdown with Beijing every year or two,” Roy said. 

28 October 2020—Climate Change in Palau: Indicators and Considerations for Key Sectors, ReliefWeb: Wendy Miles

Higher temperatures, stronger typhoons, coral reef loss, and coastal flooding are among the major challenges detailed in a new report on climate change in the Republic of Palau. Threatened resources include low-lying coastal infrastructure and the millions of dollars that ocean ecosystems add to Palau’s economy annually, according to the report by the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA), a consortium of government, NGO, and research entities.

28 October 2020—China is not a threat to US liberty or democracy, Asia Times: Denny Roy

US President Donald Trump’s government and other observers assert that China and the US are at odds primarily because China’s Communist Party (CCP) rule is ideologically and unalterably committed to destroying American liberty. However, this is an oversimplification that could potentially and dangerously distort policy-making. The rhetoric that frames US-China relations as an ideological struggle incorporates two important assertions.

19 October 2020—2020 ELECTION: FINAL 16 DAYS, Asia Media International: Charles E. Morrison

The U.S. election is underway. With 16 days before the November 3 election day, 25 million Americans have already voted, more than 15% of the anticipated vote. In the states allowing early voting, the turnout has been driven by new voters and groups that polling tells us favor the Democratic candidate. In Georgia on the first day of voting, lines took up to 11 hours of waiting.

16 October 2020—Mongolians are Paranoid about China, and They Should Be, Pacific Forum: Denny Roy

In the pre-modern era, Mongolia presided over the largest empire in human history, which included China among its conquests. Its precarious national security situation today represents perhaps history’s most extreme reversal of fortune.

7 October 2020—Why China’s coronavirus response has fuelled hostility in the West, South China Morning Post: Denny Roy

“The disparity reflects the relative success of Chinese propaganda at home and its relative failure abroad,” Denny Roy, senior fellow at the East-West Centre in Hawaii, said. “Chinese officials tended overall to reinforce foreign preconceptions of the Chinese government as an arrogant, non-transparent, propaganda-spewing dictatorship.”

5 October 2020—Planning For Pandemics: Learning From 2004–05 Avian Influenza Outbreak In Vietnam – Analysis, Eurasia Review: James H. Spencer

Today, with rapid, and often unplanned urbanization in large parts of the developing world, livestock production, processing, and marketing facilities may be found mixed in with residential and commercial development. Studies have shown that these rapidly changing, poorly planned, transitional spaces between urban and rural areas are a particularly likely source of disease transmission from animals to human hosts.

1 October 2020—Chuyên gia Mỹ dự báo: Triều Tiên sẽ có chính sách gì sau bầu cử Mỹ ? [American experts forecast: what policy will North Korea have after the US election?], Thế giới & Việt Nam = World & Vietnam: Marcus Noland

American scholar Marcus Noland, an expert in political economy, analyzed on the East West Center research website about the possibility of North Korea promoting a "crater of war" policy in relations with the US.

26 September 2020—Is North Korea Entering A Dangerous New Period Of Brinkmanship? – Analysis, Eurasia Review: Marcus Noland

In the past nine months, COVID-19 appears to have accomplished what economic sanctions could not, namely isolate North Korea from the rest of the world. On January 21, North Korea closed its border with China with which it did 90 percent of its official trade, and was also the country's primary source of investment and tourist arrivals.

25 September 2020—Unfamiliar Territory: Emerging Themes for Ecological Drought Research and Management, US Geological Survey: Abby Frazier

Novel forms of drought are emerging globally, due to climate change, shifting teleconnection patterns, expanding human water use, and a history of human influence on the environment that increases the probability of transformational ecological impacts.

25 September 2020—Trump blesses TikTok deal with Oracle and Walmart. How will China respond?, LA Times: Eric Harwit

“They are really quite upset about the announcements on the ban on WeChat and the continuing restrictions on TikTok unless this deal goes through, so I think they’re going to be rather slow to get their approval,” said Eric Harwit, an Asian studies professor at the University of Hawaii. If ByteDance is agreeable to the deal, he thinks the Chinese government will eventually go along with it.

20 September 2020—COVID-19 Pandemic Prompts A New Look At Ecological Security – Analysis, Eurasia Review: Laura Brewington

Resilient and healthy ecosystems help prevent wildfires, flooding, and other natural disasters. As the COVID-19 crisis illustrates, the unsafe exploitation of the natural environment can also have a lasting impact on population health and economic growth. In addition, damage to ecosystems can affect food and water security, and even political stability. All of these factors make up a broader notion of ecological security.

17 September 2020—Yoshihide Suga Is Japan's New Prime Minister. Here's What That Means for the U.S., Time: Kristi Govella

“The U.S. and Japan share significant interests and values that give them strong incentives to maintain good relations with each other, and this is unlikely to change under a Suga administration,” Kristi says. “Japan is a key U.S. partner in dealing with China and North Korea and maintaining stability in the region more broadly.”

17 September 2020—Forest Fires: Indonesia Experience Highlights Prevention Challenges – Analysis, Eurasia Review: Wendy Miles

Indonesia’s massive peatland fires have exposed millions of people in Southeast Asia to toxic haze and have made the nation one of the world’s largest emitters of greenhouse gases. In response to these and similar environmental disasters, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) launched the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) initiative, envisioned as a mechanism for high carbon-emitting countries and companies to pay rainforest-rich nations and communities to conserve forests.

16 September 2020—Yoshihide Suga: The unexpected rise of Japan’s new prime minister, BBC News: Kristi Govella

Mr Suga is clearly not without political skills. He has served as Japan's chief cabinet secretary for longer than any of his predecessors. He has a reputation for toughness and discipline and for understanding the machinery of Japan's byzantine bureaucracy. But are those the sorts of skills that win elections?

16 September 2020-Donald Trump on North Korea in a Second Term: A Policy on Autopilot?, The National Interest: Denny Roy

Thus, if Trump won a second term, he would likely be content to leave U.S. policy toward North Korea on autopilot, with the same orientation seen today. A return to his belligerent posture of 2017 is not likely. 

16 September 2020-China's Nobel Peace Prize problem, The Japan Times: Denny Roy

China has a Nobel problem: the Chinese Communist Party is locked in a long-term battle with a respected international organization, a battle that inevitably harms China’s global reputation both by calling attention to China’s harsh authoritarianism at home and by drawing out vindictive Chinese behavior toward other countries.

15 September 2020—Pacific Priorities (East-West Center Insights), ThinkTech Hawaii: Karena Lyons

Michael Y.K. Tseng, Director General of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Honolulu, will join host and EWC Vice President Karena Lyons to discuss Taiwan’s priorities in the Pacific. The conversation will cover the ongoing success in mitigation efforts on the COVID-19 global pandemic and factors that have positioned Taiwan as a global leader and success story. Additionally, Director General Tseng will give an update on Taiwan’s diplomatic relations in the Pacific, efforts to combat climate change, and tracking the influence of the People’s Republic of China in the Pacific.

15 September 2020—Health Department Has New Contact Tracing Plan, But Will It Be Enough?, Hawaii Public Radio: Tim Brown

East-West Center Infectious Disease expert Tim Brown said the test of whether Roberson’s new contact tracing program is working will be the data that comes out after the city’s lockdown is lifted -- when cases may again spike.

14 September 2020—Yoshihide Suga Will Succeed Shinzo Abe as Prime Minister. What's Next for Japan?, Time: Kristi Govella

Kristi Govella, assistant professor of Asian studies at the University of Hawaii at Mānoa, says that problem for Suga is that tensions between Japan and China are structural in nature. “Suga’s basically caught in a balancing act between Japan maintaining a strong economic relationship, but also recognizing that China increasingly imposes a looming security threat,” she says.

11 September 2020—US-China tensions rooted in deep, long-term shift, Asia Times: Denny Roy

The recent decline in US-China relations has many contributing factors that arise from the domestic politics of both countries. The single most important trigger, however, is a key structural change: China becoming nearly as strong an economic and military power as the US. 

8 September 2020—New robust COVID-19 dashboard product of UH partnership, University of Hawaii News: Victoria Fan

“This dashboard is an all-hands-on-deck effort that aims to sync up multiple data sources into a single location. Our aspiration is to have data that are accurate, timely and granular to help make individual and public decisions through a collaborative partnership with data providers,” said Victoria Fan, associate professor in UH Mānoa’s Myron B. Thompson School of Social Work.

8 September 2020—Shinzo Abe's successor will inherit a stricken economy and unfinished business. What's next for Japan?, Time: Kristi Govella

As Shinzo Abe steps down next week, the smart money is on Abe’s top aide, Yoshihide Suga, taking over the reins. Kristi Govella, Assistant Professor of Asian Studies at the University of Hawaii at Mānoa and East-West Center Adjunct Fellow, says that a key problem for Suga will be Japan's relationship with China. Govella reports that tensions between Japan and China are structural in nature. “Suga’s basically caught in a balancing act between Japan maintaining a strong economic relationship, but also recognizing that China increasingly imposes a looming security threat,” she says.

3 September 2020—East-West Center Receives NOAA Funding to Support International Adaptation to Climate Change in the Pacific, Targeted News Service: Pacific RISA

"Pacific Island leaders and communities recognize that climate change is their number one threat, and that they must continue their efforts to adapt to its intensifying impacts," said East-West Center Vice President Karena Lyons, who directs the Center's Research and Pacific Islands Development programs. "This new support from both NOAA and the State Department will enable the East-West Center to continue more than a decade of research bringing together scientists, communities, and decision-makers to develop innovative adaptation strategies." 

3 September 2020—Failure To Communicate: State Provides Inadequate COVID-19 Outreach, Services To Pacific Islanders, Hawaii Public Radio: Tim Brown

Brown said if the state is able to set up the needed services and structures, they should be supported even after the pandemic. “If we actually do stand up some response that goes beyond the health sector, that engages the various social sectors, that engages the communities, that engages the other organizations that need to be part of this. They can work with employers, for example, to guarantee that people don't lose their job because they have to go into isolation,” he said.

2 September 2020—Are Ungenerous People More Likely to Die Young?, Psychology Today: Andy Mason, Sang Hyop Lee

The NTA measures "how people at each age produce, consume/share resources, and save for the future" in dozens of different countries. This "big data" project includes a tally of all the transfer payments and financial support an individual has received in his or her lifetime. The NTA project also tracks macro-level private transfers between generations and provides a macro-level analysis of people's health, old-age support systems, and mortality.

2 September 2020—Covid in Hawaiʻi (East-West Center Insights), ThinkTech Hawaii: Karena Lyons, Tim Brown

Dr. Brown will lay out the socio-economic factors that expose Pacific peoples to higher risk of infection, inhibiting quality care and effective communication on preventative guidelines. He will include recommendations to the State of Hawaii that will broaden effective engagement for quality prevention and care.

2 September 2020—State’s confusing COVID-19 reports make it difficult to track spread of virus, experts say, Hawaii News Now: Tim Brown

“They’re just not doing a good job of reporting,” said Tim Brown, senior fellow of the Research Program at the East-West Center. “All people are getting is confused. Instead of giving a clear, simple picture of — this is how the epidemic is playing out in Hawaii.”

2 September 2020—Another possible cost of COVID-19: Returning workers may lead to deforestation in Nepal - Analysis, Eurasia Review: Jefferson Fox, Phanwin Yokying

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many Nepali migrants to return home. With more available labor and less remittance income, will farmers in Nepal now remove trees on their land to expand cultivation?

2 September 2020—Are ungenerous people more likely to die young?,  Psychology Today: Ronald Lee

A three-person international team of researchers analyzed swaths of data from the National Transfer Accounts: Understanding the Generational Economy project. "Findings from 34 countries on six continents suggest that survival is higher in societies that provide more support and care for one another," the authors write. "We suggest that this support reduces mortality by meeting urgent material needs, but also that sharing generosity may reflect the strength of social connectedness, which itself benefits human health and well-being and indirectly raises survival."

2 September 2020—Science says sharing more could be the secret to living longer, MarthaStewart.com: Ronald Lee

A new study published in the journal PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America) suggests that those who share more of their wealth also live longer. The team of researchers found a strong relationship between a society's generosity and the average life expectancy of its members.

2 September 2020Health Department struggled to warn young people about COVID, new efforts aim to fix it, Hawaii Public Radio: Tim Brown

East-West Center infectious disease expert Tim Brown said the Health Department's early ads were not reaching young people. “If the messaging aspect was being dealt with appropriately, young people would not be behaving the way they are right now.”

1 September 2020—Connecting the dots on the decline of US influence and relations with China (Global Connections), ThinkTech Hawaii: Denny Roy

On this episode Denny Roy will discuss the decline of US-China Relations and his views on what changes in US policy would now best serve the US.

30 August 2020—US presidential election 2020: How S-E Asia regards the two candidates, The Straits Times: Charles Morrison

"Biden would return to the Paris climate accords, he would like to strengthen the World Health Organisation, and he promises to work multilaterally with allies and friends to counteract challenges to the rule of law and maintain a strong US global and regional leadership role" says Dr. Charles Morrison.

30 August 2020Don't look to Joe Biden for a breakthrough with North Korea, The National Interest: Denny Roy

A Biden administration would be unlikely to unveil a creative new approach to achieve a breakthrough on the North Korea issue. Rather, we could expect a return to the familiar. 

28 August 2020—Hawaii is no longer safe from Covid-19, The Wall Street Journal: Tim Brown

Tim Brown, an infectious disease specialist at the East-West Center, a research organization based in Honolulu, said he was surprised Covid-19 has spread so rapidly in Hawaii. "As a public health professional, I expect this to look like New Zealand," he said, referring to the Pacific island nation that isolated itself and had few Covid-19 cases.

28 August 2020—Quarantine security, fireworks secret, strike teams: News from around our 50 states, USA Today: Tim Brown

“It’s basically telling us we’re in a very serious situation from a public health point of view,” said Tim Brown, a senior fellow at the research program of the East-West Center in Honolulu.

24 August 2020—Urgent need to engage Pacific Islander communities in Hawaii to contain COVID-19—analysis, Eurasia Review: Tim Brown

The global COVID-19 pandemic, like every public health crisis, exposes societal fissures and failings. Almost inevitably, there are those who are left behind, where responses come too late. Here in Hawaii, the COVID-19 epidemic has grown explosively since the end of July with an average of 220 cases a day reported in the week ending 21 August. But while the epidemic affects everyone, Hawaii’s Pacific Islander communities have been hit hardest of all.

24 August 2020—Thermal screening cameras in place at airports statewide, Hawaii Public RaidoTim Brown

Travelers who are still to Hawaii, both visitors and returning residents, are now subject to a body temperature screening by special thermal cameras at the Honolulu International Airport. It is part of the state’s effort to prevent passengers infected with COVID-19 from bringing the virus to Hawaii.

21 August 2020—Researchers: State must support Pacific Islanders in the pandemic, Civil Beat: Tim Brown

Experts say the state government and other groups need to work more closely with Pacific Island leaders and provide more resources to help stop the spread of the coronavirus in Pacific Island communities.

19 August 2020—A Chinese attack on Taiwan is not imminent, Asia Times: Denny Roy

There is no question that the Beijing government wants badly to make Taiwan a province of the PRC, but China's recent aggressive moves toward India, Hong Kong, and South China Sea do not mean that an invasion of Taiwan is next.

14 August 2020—The collapse of Chinese soft power, Pacific Forum: Denny Roy

The Chinese government recently became very interested in the idea of soft power and how it could help China achieve its goals. After a slow start, however, Chinese soft power regressed badly in 2020, yielding to heavier reliance on China’s ability to dispense or withhold economic benefits to force business partners to acquiesce to Beijing’s wishes on political or strategic issues.

13 August 2020—Epidemic tracking expert warns the public to take COVID-19 seriously as cases spike in the state, KITV 4: Tim Brown

As the number of COVID-19 cases continue to spike across the state, a warning from an epidemic tracking expert at the East West Center. His message? It's time we all take the coronavirus seriously. He also says it's time for government leaders and the Department of Health to make changes. Dr. Tim Brown believes the biggest problem is the state reopened and relaxed restrictions too early. The current situation he says is nearly uncontrollable but he does have ideas how to slow the spread. He believes more testing is needed, even for people not showing symptoms. "The ccontact tracing system we have now is not effective. I've talked to people who are in isolation and have never been contacted by the Department of Health," Brown said. The recommendation is simple: Put on a mask, and stay away from crowds. "We need to seriously look at being straight with people about how serious this epidemic is and what needs to happen. We're making arbitrarily rules, such as to not gather in groups of more than 10. That's the wrong rule. The rule should be don't occupy the same breathing space as somebody who's not part of your daily household," Brown said.

13 August 2020—Expert estimates 1 in 50 likely positive in Hawaii, Hawaii Public Radio: Tim Brown

About one in every 50 people in the state is likely infected with COVID-19, according to infectious disease expert Tim Brown with the East-West Center. He says the ratio is based on the number of active cases in the state and an estimate from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The CDC says for every positive case reported about another 10 are undetected. With more than 2,000 active cases in Hawaii, more than 20,000 may be infected statewide. "A large proportion of those people are either never going to have symptoms, or they are in a pre-symptomatic phase, but they can still spread the virus," Brown said. "So you won’t see these people coughing, you won’t see them with fevers. They’re basically out there with the potential to spread the virus, but there’s no outward sign. It means there’s a high probability if you go to a supermarket, and there are 50 people in there, somebody with COVID is in that supermarket with you," he said. Brown says this is not the time for people to be lax about wearing face masks or keeping their distance from others.

12 August 2020—Epidemic tracker: 1 in 50 Oahu residents may have COVID-19, Hawaii News Now: Tim Brown

The East-West Center's Tim Brown warns that the COVID-19 virus may be more widespread on Oahu than previously thought. He estimates about one in 50 Oahu residents may be infected. "That means that if you go into a grocery store and there are 50 people in that grocery store, one of those people almost certainly has COVID," he said. Dr. Brown recommends confining your contacts to your household members and avoiding the gym or indoor restaurants.

This article also appeared in  KHNL on MSN.com.

12 August 2020—A chance for Chinese economic leadership, HueWire: Peter A. Petri and Michael G. Plummer

In late June 2020, 15 East Asian countries—representing nearly 30 per cent of the world’s economic output and population—committed to signing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). This will be the largest free trade agreement ever and complements the 2018 Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The United States is missing from these agreements, having left the predecessor of the CPTPP (the Trans-Pacific Partnership) when US President Donald Trump took office. India, originally a member of the RCEP negotiations, withdrew just before the agreement’s conclusion. These departures hand China potent leverage—it is the largest economy in a now regionally focused East Asian system. Will China use this leverage to advance short-term political interests—a kind of "China first" strategy—or to build a rules-based system that works for all countries as a model for global cooperation? How Chinese leaders answer this question will shape the economic and political landscape for years to come.

A version of this article is published on the Bookings Institute website.

11 August 2020—COVID-19 data show Hawaii is in a "very dire situation," Honolulu Civil Beat: Tim Brown

“We’re in a very dire situation,” said Dr. Tim Brown, an epidemic tracking expert with the East-West Center. "Despite the growing number of cases, the public does not seem to have a sense of urgency about the worsening pandemic, Brown, who has also served on a COVID-19 advisory task force for Hawaii, said. "Some people are still not convinced that they should wear masks, and some think it’s perfectly okay to gather as long as the group is smaller than 10 people, even if they’re all from different households, which is absolutely not the case," he said. “People have to understand that we are not in normal circumstances right now,” he said. “We are in a once-in-a-century pandemic.”

11 August 2020—How Hawaii botched contact tracing and what it will take to fix it, Hawaii Public Radio: Tim Brown

Tim Brown, an infectious disease expert at the East-West Center, pointed to major pitfalls in Hawaii's approach to contact tracing. Brown said contact tracing is a key component in controlling large outbreaks and it becomes even more important as infections are driven down to ensure the state does not see further spikes.“Don't give up on contact tracing,” he said. “We need to redouble our efforts on contract tracers, make sure we've got a cadre of trained contact tracers who are ready to jump into it at a day’s notice. I think this spike caught everybody unawares. But sadly, it was almost predictable because of the poor public messaging that's been done here. People do not understand that if a party of 10 people gets together, and you're talking about five couples from five different households, that’s a COVID party.”

4 August 2020—Why US lawmakers introduce bill after bill to help Taiwan, Voice of America: Denny Roy

US legislators felt that “for many years [the United States] was doing too much to limit itself in its relations with Taiwan,” said Denny Roy, Senior Fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu. Members of Congress also feel that “since China has generally acted in bad faith, Washington is no longer as concerned as before about avoiding actions that will antagonize China,” Roy said.  

3 August 2020—When giants fight, even the wisest Southeast Asian leaders are left helpless:ThinkChina: Denny Roy

Hawaii-based academic Denny Roy notes the growing tension between North and South Korea, as well as US relations with China and the rest of the world, and explores how these might affect the situation in Southeast Asia.

3 August 2020—China: "The South China Sea is not Hawaii," Honolulu Star-Advertiser: Denny Roy

Denny Roy, who specializes in Asia-Pacific security at the East-West Center, said this “Hawaii” comment “echoes a Chinese sentiment we’ve heard before: That Beijing can acknowledge a US sphere of influence in the eastern Pacific Ocean if the US will acknowledge a Chinese sphere of influence in the western Pacific.” It isn’t officially stated Chinese policy, “but I think Chinese strategists like the idea of ultimately dividing the Pacific Ocean in half, with Hawaii as the westernmost outpost of the US half,” Roy said.

31 July 2020—Influencer exits. Ban threats. Can TikTok weather the storm?, The Tribune [San Luis Obispo]: Eric Harwit

"Part of the reasons that foreign governments, especially the United States, are targeting TikTok is because of the global competition for these technologies," said Eric Harwit, a professor of Asian Studies at the University of Hawaii and Adjunct Senior Fellow at the East-West center. "If you're using TikTok, then you're maybe not using Instagram as much." Concerns about security are real, however. Under China's law, the government can request tech companies provide information in cases of national security or a criminal investigation, Harwit said. Those that don't comply could be fined or have their executives arrested, he added.

This article also appeared in the Fresno Bee, the Los Angeles Times, the Merced Sun-Star, the Omaha World-Herald, The Star [Malaysia], and the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

30 July 2020—Lee Teng-hui, former president of Taiwan, dies at 97, Los Angeles Times via Yahoo! News: Denny Roy

"Lee worked within this system to get to the top, but eventually turned his back … supporting some democratic reforms and emphasizing Taiwan’s worthiness for individual statehood,” said Denny Roy, Senior Fellow at the East-West Center. “His description of Taiwan and China having a ‘special state-to-state relationship’ is as good as any bumper-sticker principle anyone has offered to capture Taiwan’s point of view.”

29 July 2020—US-China reconciliation is drifting further away, Japan Times: Denny Roy

The deterioration of US-China relations was further solidified by an important speech by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on July 23. Pompeo’s speech will accelerate the sense that a “new cold war” is underway between China and the United States because it seems to demand the overthrow of the Chinese Communist Party as a prerequisite for peace. As for the longer term, Pompeo’s speech deepens the view among some Americans that peaceful coexistence with an authoritarian and increasingly powerful China is not possible without sacrificing vital American interests. 

28 July 2020—US vs. China: How did we even get here?, EE Tiimes: Dieter Ernst

As Dieter Ernst, economist and Senior Fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation (Waterloo, Canada) and the East-West Center (Honolulu), told us in an interview, “There is no doubt that the US Department of Commerce and the US Trade Representative should fight against unfair practices in intellectual property rights, trade secrets, and government procurement, wherever they occur, including in China. But most important, both the US government and the private sector need to join forces and develop and implement a national strategy to upgrade the country’s innovation system in order to cope with the challenge of China’s innovation policy from a position of strength.” He concluded: “In short, technology warfare based on crude techno-nationalism is threatening to destroy AI’s global knowledge-sharing culture. This is true both for the ‘America First’ doctrine and for China’s attempts to claim sovereignty over its cyberspace through the Great Firewall.”

28 July 2020—India alaarmed at growing China-Bangladesh relations, OpEdNews: Anu Anwar

Historically, Bangladesh has more cultural and societal links with India than with China. However, India's hegemonic posture and coercive tactics created deep resentment among ordinary Bangladeshis, especially when contrasted with China's model of noninterference in domestic affairs coupled with lavish spending, says Anu Anwar, an Affiliate Scholar at the East-West Center, and a Research Fellow at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (APCSS), Hawaii.

25 July 2020—As the world gets tougher on China, Japan tries to thread a needle, New York Times: Kristi Govella

Japan’s recent decision to abandon its plan to buy an American missile defense system, known as Aegis Ashore, led some to wonder if it would now be more exposed to potential attacks from both North Korea and China. “While the cancellation of Aegis Ashore might put Japan in a more vulnerable position, if Japan uses this opportunity to pivot to acquisition of other capabilities, then the result could be even more worrying for China,” said Kristi Govella, an Assistant Professor in the Department of Asian Studies at the University of Hawaii at Manoa [and Adjunct Fellow at the East-West Center].

23 July 2020—UHERO economist to discuss reopening Hawaii tourism in free online event, Pacific Business News: Tim Brown

An economist from the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, a fellow from the East-West Center and a University of Hawaii epidemiologist will discuss reopening the Hawaii tourism industry in the age of Covid-19 during an online event hosted by the Hawaii Economic Association on Aug. 6. Sumner LaCroix, professor emeritus of economics at the University of Hawaii and UHERO research fellow, will deliver a presentation on the state’s reliance on tourism and the state of Hawaii's economy during the Covid-19 pandemic. He will be joined for a question-and-answer session by Tim Brown, a senior fellow at the East-West Center and F. DeWolfe Miller, professor emeritus of epidemiology at the UH John A. Burns School of Medicine. The hour-long event is free and will start at noon. Click here ;to register.

23 July 2020—Spencer named LSU Graduate School Vice Provost and Dean, LSU Media Service: James H. Spencer

Louisiana State University has named James H. Spencer the Vice provost and Dean for the LSU Graduate School. Spencer is a Professor of City and Regional Planning and Associate Dean of the College of Architecture, Arts and Humanities at Clemson University, as well as Adjunct Senior Fellow at the East West Center in Hawai'i. He will begin his role as vice provost and dean on Aug. 3.

22 July 2020—Did COVID-19 really give China a strategic advantage?, The Diplomat: Denny Roy

Many China analysts have concluded the Chinese leadership saw in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic an opportunity to advance China’s strategic agenda because other countries would be distracted by their internal struggles with the virus. This narrative is erroneous. The pandemic was much more a liability than a boon for Beijing’s efforts to promote China’s international reputation and agenda, and the theory that it caused more aggressive Chinese foreign policy moves does not withstand close scrutiny.

21 July 2020—Prospects for resolving North Korean issue remain vague, Penza News: Denny Roy

Denny Roy, Senior Fellow at East-West Center, an expert on Northeast Asian international security issues, noted that the relations between the two Koreas have returned to their usual pattern of past decades. “Pyongyang basically fears and despises the Seoul government. The Kim regime seeks to extort concessions from South Korea, not to reach permanent peace with South Korea. Nevertheless, occasionally Pyongyang will launch a temporary peace offensive against South Korea, either as another way of gaining concessions or as a show to gain more cooperation from either the United States or China,” he said.

15 July 2020—Will a waning Moon reduce the opportunity for peace on the Korean peninsula?, The National Interest: Denny Roy

Given the events of the past five years, the emergence of a peace treaty between North and South Korea in the next five years looks improbable, although it is possible Kim Jong-un or his successor could decide that pursuing a peace treaty is to North Korea’s tactical advantage. In keeping with the pattern of past North Korean leaders, his regime is now back to menacing and belittling Seoul following an apparent thaw in relations.  

14 July 2020—Challenges and responses to COVID-19: Experience From Asia, Eurasia Review: Nancy Davis Lewis and Jonathan D. Mayer

Experience in Asia suggests that public health and medical capacity are critical for an effective response to an emerging infectious disease. Political will and previous experience with disease outbreaks also play a role.

14 July 2020—China blasted by US for unlawful bullying in South China Sea, Honolulu Star-Advertiser: Denny Roy

The United States stepped up its rhetoric on Monday in a condemnation of what it called China’s unlawful bullying in the South China Sea. Denny Roy, an expert on Asia Pacific security issues at the East-West Center in Honolulu, said US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s comments are not a seismic shift but are a “stronger, more forthright orienting of our approach to the South China Sea.”

12 July 2020—Hawaii likely to push back tourism reopening from August 1, Travel Pulse: Tim Brown

Tim Brown, a Senior Fellow with the East-West Center, notes that even without receiving outsiders, Hawaii has seen 26 new COVID-19 cases a day over the past week, and the rising numbers both at home and on the US mainland don’t bode well. He said that Hawaii really can’t afford to allow tourists in until the daily count for new infections is back down in the single-digits. Brown told KHON2 that too many residents are failing to wear their masks and practice social-distancing and proposed that state officials should take action to reinforce the impact and seriousness of these protocols.

11 July 2020—China’s peace and reconciliation effort falls flat, Asia Times: Denny Roy

Beijing is seeking to pull US-China relations out of their current downturn, perhaps the most serious since the two countries established diplomatic relations in 1979, according to Denny Roy, Senior Fellow at the East-West Center. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke about this subject on July 9 to the China-US Think Tanks and Media Online Forum. Wang’s speech is important as an authoritative statement of the pitch Beijing is making to the US policy-making community, many of whom have become disillusioned with China during Xi Jinping’s rule.

10 July 2020—Hawaii's LG says governor will postpone Aug. 1 date to reopen tourism, KHON: Tim Brown

Tim Brown of the East-West Center said the combination of rising COVID-19 cases here and on the mainland is a strong signal that August 1 is too early to reopen tourism. He adds that to be ready, state officials need to send a stronger message to residents to take safety protocols more seriously. “I think we need an actual public service announcement campaign of several million dollars, probably hiring professional firms to get this message across and to explain to people, look, your irresponsibility is the reason we can’t open the economy,” he said.

7 July 2020—Philippines needs stronger climate change adaptation, urban planning, Manila Bulletin: Allen Clark

Allen Clark, from the East-West Center in Honolulu, Hawaii, said policies in the Philippines must be reassessed and updated to address the annual typhoons hitting the country. In particular, policies in urban planning must be taken into higher consideration after super typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan). “You have what I call the perfect storm in the Philippines. You’ve got the physical storm, climate change, urbanization, and explosive population growth,” emphasized Clark.

6 July 2020—Impact of COVID-19 on rice farmers on Southeast Asia, Eurasia Review: Jefferson Fox, Arunee Promkhabut, and Phanwin Yoking

Over the past several decades, rice farmers across Southeast Asia have experienced growing labor shortages as working-age adults migrated to nearby cities and abroad in search of better jobs. Today, rice farmers are dealing with one of the worst droughts in recent history, and now they also face substantial challenges created by the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, global demand for food stockpiles is pushing rice prices for consumers to levels not seen since the 2008 global economic crisis.

30 June 2020—Hawaii tourism is on life support as visitor arrivals plunge 99% in May, Honolulu Star-Advertiser: Tim Brown

Tim Brown, a Senior Fellow in infectious disease at the East-West Center, co-authored a recent study on the prevention of travel­-related reintroduction of COVID-19 to Hawaii that presented a strategy for screening travelers, particularly prior to boarding a plane for Hawaii. If tourism resumes, with 6,000 visitors arriving daily screened only for temperature and symptoms, Brown and his co-authors estimated it would lead to 750 additional active infections in the community per month, overwhelming the state’s health care system. Brown is also concerned about recent double-digit increases in local coronavirus cases—an average of about 13 new infections a day in the past two weeks, indicating it is not under control. In addition to more urgent public messaging on wearing face masks, physical distancing ,and not congregating in large groups, Brown said there needs to be more aggressive testing, including individuals who are asymptomatic and those at greatest risk, along with prompt contact tracing. The next few weeks will be telling, he said, and if numbers continue to climb, he would seriously reconsider whether Hawaii is ready to reopen to visitors.

19 June 2020—미중 외교수장 회담 우호적이었지만 입장차만 확인 [Despite friendly talks, US-China chief diplomats only agree to disagree], News1 Korea: Denny Roy

19 June 2020—川普稱中美仍有可能「徹底脫鉤」學者:夏威夷會談各說各話 [Trump said that China and the United States may still be "completely decoupled:" Scholars in Hawaii talks speak their own words], 天下 [CommonWealth]: Denny Roy

18 June 2020—Why troubles brewing in North-East Asia bear watching, The Straits Times: Denny Roy

While the China-India border and the South China Sea are grabbing most of the headlines, the strategic landscape is also changing in North-East Asia. Some of the changes have the potential to dramatically impact South-East Asia. There are three major developments that merit attention: North Korea lashing out at South Korea, tension between the United States and its allies Japan and South Korea, and rumblings of discontent out of China. Each has different causes and poses a different problem for the broader Asia-Pacific region.

18 June 2020—US-China talks: Mike Pompeo’s seven-hour meeting with Yang Jiechi ‘helps atmosphere’—but differing statements show divisions remain, South China Morning Post: Denny Roy

Denny Roy, senior fellow at the Hawaii-based East-West Center, said the meeting signaled that both sides want to reset the relationship and that US President Donald Trump probably wanted significant progress towards a comprehensive deal to end the two countries’ protracted trade dispute before the US election in November. “Pompeo and Yang would not be the officials to hammer out a trade deal, but rather they would explore ways to generally improve the atmosphere,” Roy said. “More bilateral discussions are likely before the election, not necessarily with the same officials or the same format.” Roy said the US State Department’s statement was “extremely brief”, possibly reflecting an awareness of ongoing revelations about Trump’s previous dealings with Chinese President Xi Jinping by John Bolton, the former US national security adviser. “Perhaps the White House’s thinking is to downplay the meeting as much as possible, even make Americans forget about it, rather than have them interpret the results through the lens suggested by Bolton,” Roy said. “Now, thanks to Bolton, Trump is under more scrutiny to deliver results that prove he is looking out for America’s interests, not just his own.”

17 June 2020—U.S.-China tensions: It’s worse this time, The Japan Times: Denny Roy

China and the United States have overcome quarrels before. The current deterioration of bilateral relations, however, is more worrisome than usual. Two deep and long-term sources of tension are rivalry for leadership in the Asia-Pacific region and internal political factors in both countries. Bilateral relations will still fluctuate, which means they could improve from today’s nadir. But the ceiling for improvement is steadily getting lower.

16 June 2020—Hawaii talks a chance for Mike Pompeo and Yang Jiechi to ‘draw red lines in the sand,’ South China Morning Post: Denny Roy

Denny Roy, a Senior Fellow at the East-West Center in Hawaii, believes China needs the meeting more than the US, as Beijing faces an economic slowdown as well as strategic crises in the region. “There will be little if any room for convergence of views on any of these issues. The best possibility for a small breakthrough will be in bilateral economic relations,” he said. “China also lost prestige and caused an acceleration in calls for economic decoupling as a result of its actions during the pandemic.” He said while the Trump administration had positioned itself to use China-bashing as a campaign tactic, “Trump would likely still prefer the chance to claim that he got America a win in its relations with China right before the election.”

11 June 2020—I maluhia kakou: A plan for opening Hawaii safely, Honolulu Civil Beat: Tim Brown

Hawaii continues to fare well in the coronavirus pandemic. This is in large part because airplane and cruise ship travel has been decreased by the 14-day quarantine order, and because residents have adhered to a prolonged and unsustainable shut-down of social and economic activity. Now we must find a way towards an economic revival that supports the people and their health. Our goal should be to eliminate COVID-19 transmission within the islands, while also taking steps to revitalize the economy and community life. As Hawaii’s economy is largely dependent on tourism, we must also develop a plan to prevent the arrival of infected individuals.

11 June 2020—Waikiki businesses losing nearly $6B in visitor revenues since lockdown, KHON 2: Tim Brown

The governor’s announcement to extend the 14-day quarantine to out-of-state travelers is a staggering blow to Waikiki businesses that have suffered losses of close to $6 billion since the lockdown. But the recent spike in cases in several mainland states is worrying. Even if Hawaii tests incoming travelers before they leave, allowing mainland travelers without quarantine could lead to a dangerous surge. “Because of the sensitivity of the tests, the fact that it’s not detecting everybody, we would see an increase in the number of cases of active Covid infection coming into the islands if we open up to tourism from the mainland,” said Tim Brown, East-West Center Senior Fellow. Brown says it would be safer to allow visitors from countries with low infection rates such as South Korea and Australia that “have really done a good job of containing the epidemic. And if we open to those, yes, it’s not the majority of our tourism, but at least it lets us get the tourism industry started again,” said Brown.

9 June 2020—The pandemic In North Korea: Lessons from the 1990s famine, Eurasia Review: Marcus Noland

North Korea's response to the COVID-19 pandemic is oddly reminiscent of the catastrophic famine that overtook the country in the 1990s. Then as now, the onset and severity of the problem caught the North Korean leadership unawares, and their first response was to deny that a problem existed. Eventually the government reversed course and began exaggerating the distress in order to obtain international aid. This pattern may well occur again in the face of the pandemic.

9 June 2020—Experts: Test passengers to reopen Hawaii tourism, Honolulu Civil Beat: Tim Brown

As Hawaii waits to reopen its largest industry, economists and medical experts increasingly view testing passengers before they board planes to Hawaii as a key to safely bringing visitors back to the state and resurrecting the state’s economy. Even with a fraction of the visitors it had before the COVID-19 crisis shut down the tourism industry, Hawaii could expect several hundred cases of the virus to be brought into the state each month by travelers, the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization reported in a paper released Tuesday. The report argues that testing passengers before they come to Hawaii can allow the state to reopen safely. It was written by Tim Brown, who studies infectious disease and epidemiology as a Senior Fellow with the East-West Center; Sumner La Croix, Professor Emeritus of economics at the University of Hawaii, and F. DeWolfe Miller, an epidemiologist and Professor of tropical medicine at UH’s John A. Burns School of Medicine.

9 June 2020—COVID-19 testing pre-departure may eliminate 90% of infectious passengers, UH News: Tim Brown

Sumner La Croix, UHERO research fellow and UH Mānoa professor emeritus of economics in the College of Social Sciences; F. DeWolfe Miller, John A. Burns School of Medicine professor emeritus; and Tim Brown, East-West Center senior fellow recommend that individuals who clear a temperature and symptom screening, and a COVID-19 test in their departure city will not be required to quarantine for 14 days upon arrival to Hawaiʻi. Read the full post on UHERO’s website.

1 June 2020—Reopening tourism: Residents, visitors must trust they’ll stay virus-free, Hawaii Business Magazine: Tim Brown

Sumner La Croix, UH professor emeritus of economics, and Tim Brown, a public health researcher and senior fellow at the East-West Center, suggest in a written presentation that emerging technologies that screen visitors for the virus before they board planes will be one of the surest methods to reassure both locals and tourists. “Tourists need to conclude that it is safe to visit Hawai‘i,” La Croix and Brown write. “Residents need to conclude that tourists are safe visitors with only a small chance of contributing to Hawai‘i’s epidemic.”

31 May 2020—President Donald Trump revokes Hong Kong's special status, KITV Channel Four: Denny Roy

Senior Fellow at the East-West Center Denny Roy describes the latest step by the Chinese government as "establishing the practice of Beijing making laws and then imposing them on Hong Kong and completely bi-passing the Hong Kong legislature. In this case, the law at issue would make free political speech illegal." This breaks China's promise under international law to allow Hong Kong to keep its accustomed legal, social, and political systems for 50 years after the handover from Britain.

30 May 2020—US-China tensions expected to escalate further after Donald Trump promises action over Hong Kong, South China Morning Post: Denny Roy

Denny Roy, a Senior Fellow at the Hawaii-based East-West Center, said many in the US had been angered by Trump’s announcement that the US would withdraw from the WHO in the middle of a pandemic and his failure to address nationwide protests over police brutality and racism. While there was great sympathy in the US for the Hong Kong people, he said the US would be unable to force China to restore the city’s freedom. "America is not going to war over this," he said. "Washington will take some kind of symbolic action to express our dismay. I hope very much it will be calibrated to cause pain to PRC [People’s Republic of China] elites but not to further endanger the livelihoods of ordinary Hongkongers, who will probably have a harder time now as some foreign banks and corporations pull out.”

27 May 2020—Better work opportunities for older adults would benefit South Korean economy, Eurasia Review: Sang-Hyop Lee

South Korea has one of the fastest-aging populations in the world. Over the next 30 years, the share of Korea’s population age 65 and older is projected to grow from 15 to 40 percent. Given this extreme rate of population aging, Korean policymakers face two critical challenges—ensuring an adequate level of support for the elderly while maintaining robust economic growth. Keeping healthy older people in the labor force can help achieve both these goals.

25 May 2020—China's domestic politics hamstring its diplomacy, Asia Times: Denny Roy

The pandemic was both a crisis and an opportunity for the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Beijing had the chance to make the best of a bad situation. The initial attempt to cover up the severity of the outbreak damaged China’s international reputation, but thereafter the Chinese government relatively quickly flattened the curve of infections as the disease exploded in the United States and Western Europe. On balance, however, China’s pandemic diplomacy has clearly failed. The reason for its failure is that China’s international pandemic outreach was an extension of Chinese domestic politics, specifically the insecurity of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the regime’s emphasis on promoting the image of paramount leader Xi Jinping. The phenomenon of domestic politics influencing foreign policy is certainly not unique to China, but the peculiarities of the PRC political system especially in the Xi era, create additional baggage that may keep China from punching its weight as a potential global leader.

25 May 2020—China’s tech reach falls short of its ambitions, EE Times: Dieter Ernst

Technology scholar Dieter Ernst concluded in a recent study that China’s AI industry is immature, fragmented, and focused primarily on AI apps that will yield a quick return on investment. For all the resources Beijing has thrown at AI development, China has yet to develop the ecosystem necessary for real technology innovation. The same is true for semiconductors and other critical electronics technologies.

22 May 2020—New China cold war: US overtures to Taiwan escalate tension with Beijing, Washington Examiner: Denny  Roy

President Trump’s administration plans to sell 18 torpedoes to Taiwan at a time when worsening tensions between the United States and China raise the specter of conflict over the island’s political sovereignty. "The current nadir in US-China relations frees Washington from the burden of trying to please Beijing and also makes an independent Taiwan more strategically valuable,” said East-West Center Senior Fellow Denny Roy.

20 May 2020—One pandemic, two Koreas: Coronavirus and the Korean peninsula standoff, Korea Press Foundation: Marcus Noland

"North Korea's political culture inhibits the communication of bad news, and it is notable that the government claims that there are no COVID-19 cases, despite a variety of indicators that would suggest otherwise," according to East-West Center Non-Resident Senior Fellow Marcus Noland. "If a decision is made to openly seek outside assistance, Pyonyang will exhibit a predilection for material aid such as medical equipment, which can be portrayed internally as a kind of political tribute to the Kim regime," Noland added.

19 May 2020—Hawaii antibody tests suggest community's level of exposure low, Hawaii Public Radio: Tim Brown

"The level of COVID-19 exposure in the community is still comparatively low," says Tim Brown, an infectious disease expert at the East-West Center. "In some ways, that's good news, but it's bad news if you're hoping that herd immunity in the community is going to protect people," he said. Brown said herd immunity alone would probably not work in a place as large as the United States because the death toll would be far too large. That’s why he predicts that while we wait for a vaccine, a more likely scenario will be that doctors will find better treatments for COVID-19. Although there may not be much COVID-19 circulating in Hawaii, Brown says we shouldn’t let our guard down. He said with some less contagious diseases, it’s enough to get the infection down to a very low number. But with the coronavirus as transmissible as it is, one person’s cough can infect many people.

19 May 2020—报告揭露中国AI产业现况的神秘面纱![The report reveals the mystery of the current state of China's AI industry! [In Chinese], EE Times: Dieter Ernst

19 May 2020—북 지도자 관련 급변사태에도 북 체제 크게 바뀌지 않을 것 [The North Korean regime will not change significantly in the event of a sudden change in relations with North Korean leaders: In Korean], RFA: Marcus Noland

12 May 2020—No fire and fury: 2020 may be a quiet year for US-North Korea relations, National Interest: Denny Roy

For several reasons, this year will likely be a hiatus in serious US-DPRK diplomacy. The re-election of President Donald Trump in November 2020 is far from certain. Pyongyang therefore has little incentive to engage in hard bargaining to reach an agreement that might be overturned by a new US president in January 2021. If the usual false hope of a breakthrough in US-DPRK relations is off the table for 2020, it still appears available in Pyongyang's relations with South Korea, where President Moon Jae-in's government remains ready to talk economic benefits now and denuclearization later.

11 May 2020—Using vinegar to fight coronavirus: Cheap, simple symptom checks can help economies reopen, Hawaii Public Radio: Tim Brown

Tim Brown, an expert in infectious diseases and epidemic behavior at the East-West Center, says that the main benefit of symptom screening, such as fever checks, is that they’re quick and easy. “They’re non-invasive, they take only seconds, they can be done at the door,” Brown said. "Of course, there is one obvious weakness to the smell test," says Brown. “It’s relying on self-reporting and if people know ‘I’m supposed to say I smell something,’ then they may just say that they smell something. Additionally, not all those infected will experience a fever or loss of smell." Still, says Brown, in “any place where you’re likely to have significant crowding, in places like a healthcare setting, where workers are motivated to protect themselves and their co-workers, I think it could be very valuable there. Schools, military bases, and prisons are all good candidates for increased symptom checks regimens.

8 May 2020—COVID-19 antibody tests available on Big Island, Big Island Now: Tim Brown

“The antibody tests that are out there now, which are the ones that are most amenable to becoming take-home tests, are bad—for a lack of any other word,” Dr. Tim Brown, Senior Fellow at UNAIDS Collaborating Center at the East-West Center, said in late April. Brown added that the antibody tests cross-react with common cold coronaviruses, which means someone may test positive for a cold they had a month ago.

7 May 2020—How China is slowly conquering the South China Sea, National Interest: Denny Roy

Changing the trajectory of the trend in the South China Sea would require more of the region to decide that the long-term risk of de facto Chinese ownership of this important waterway outweighs the short-term risk—both military and economic—of taking a stronger stand against Chinese encroachment.

6 May 2020—On beach closures, the governor and lieutenant governor aren’t on the same page, Hawaii News Now: Tim Brown

Despite the growing list of businesses and state parks that are set to reopen, Gov. David Ige says Hawaii’s beaches are still off limits for relaxing and sunbathing. “I’m less worried about beaches than crowding at Ala Moana Center and so on," said Tim Brown, Senior Fellow at the East West Center and an expert on infectious diseases.

6 May 2020—Health experts say it’s too soon to reopen, Honolulu Star-Advertiser: Tim Brown

“Opening malls is brain-dead. That’s just inviting crowds. That’s just foolish. One thing we know about the virus is it loves crowds. The last thing we want to do is bring people together,” said Dr. Tim Brown, an infectious-disease modeler and senior fellow at the East-West Center. “Right now the number is basically down because most people are sheltering in place, but once we open up, the number of (cases and) close contacts is going to rise very rapidly. The streets are a lot more crowded; people are already effectively starting to lift the lockdown even though they’re technically supposed to be in lockdown.”

1 May 2020—China’s eight arguments against Western ‘hubris’ and why they fail, Pacific Forum: Denny Roy

The poor performance of Western Europe and the United States during the pandemic has revived Western declinism. A recent example is an essay by Zhou Bo of the Center of China-American Defense Relations, Academy of Military Science of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. Zhou’s assertions are important, but also mainly wrong, and therefore call for a critique.

29 April 2020—Antibody tests now available statewide, Big Island Now: Tim Brown

The antibody tests that are out there now, which are the ones that are most amenable to becoming take-home tests, are bad—for a lack of any other word,” said Dr. Tim Brown, Senior Fellow at UNAIDS Collaborating Center at the East-West Center. Brown added the antibody tests cross-react with common cold coronaviruses, which means someone may test positive for a cold they had a month ago. “The FDA is basically approving tests that have extremely high false-positive rates, so they are overestimating the prevalence… and badly overestimating it,” he continued. “They give a lot of people the impression that they’re not infective when they are, and vice versa, that they are infective when they’re not.” That could cause serious health risks for those who believe they were exposed based on a bad test and head out into the community with a false sense of security due to a phantom immunity that doesn’t actually exist, Brown said.

29 April 2020—Corona virus effect on US China trade [audio], The Conversation (Hawaii Public Radio): Christopher McNally

Chris McNally, Adjunct Senior Fellow at the East-West Center and Political Economy Professor at Chaminade University, says overall trade with China is down, but trade in medical equipment is up through the roof. Some new Chinese companies that are producing medical equipment were not well qualified, resulting in the export of shoddy goods, but the Chinese government is now putting better rules in place. Broader trade issues are currently on hold, but Dr. McNally hopes that cooler heads will prevail because neither side can win a trade war.

26 April 2020—If Kim Jong-un dies North Korea could survive (with Kim Yo-jong taking over), The National Interest: Denny Roy

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) regime could survive the death of Kim Jong-un. The established pattern of hereditary succession suggests Kim’s younger sister, Kim Yo-Jong, would most likely replace him.… The death of Kim Jong-un would lead to uncertainty in US-DPRK relations. The personal relationship between the two national leaders would be gone. A period of introversion by North Korea might follow, in effect a hiatus in bilateral relations. But equally likely is an increase in tensions on the Peninsula.

24 April 2020—Q&A: No winners in America-first/China-first AI war, EE Times: Dieter Ernst

There is no doubt that the US government should fight against unfair practices in intellectual property rights, trade secrets, and government procurement, wherever they occur, including in China. But most important, both the US government and the private sector need to join forces and develop and implement a national strategy to upgrade the country’s innovation system in order to cope with the challenge of China’s innovation policy from a position of strength. China in turn needs to reconsider the notion that the country can only progress in AI if it pursues a zero-sum competition policy in its relationship with the United States and other advanced countries. China should provide safeguards to foreign companies against forced technology transfer through policies such as compulsory licensing, cyber security standards and certification, and restrictive government procurement policies. In short, technology warfare based on crude techno-nationalism is threatening to destroy AI’s global knowledge-sharing culture.

22 April 2020—Debunking the myth of China's AI superiority, EE Times: Dieter Ernst

It is time to accept that the US, the most powerful country in the world, can no longer single-handedly dictate the pace of innovation in AI and in IT at large. It is in the interest of US industry that the US government returns to a policy that promotes rather than disrupts the rule of law in international trade, in order to regain stability, predictability, and a more equitable distribution of gains from trade. It will take quite some time to repair the tremendous damage done by current US policies.

16 April 2020—Reasons for Taiwan to be hopeful, Taipei Times: Denny Roy

Four longer-term trends have positive implications for Taiwan. First, Taiwan is on track to remain prosperous after the pandemic blows over. Second, the pandemic has increased world respect and sympathy for Taiwan, which will pay long-term dividends. A third positive trend is increased US support for Taiwan. The fourth positive trend is the routinization of Taiwan’s autonomy from China. Taiwan is not only a de facto independent country, it is a successful and internationally respected one.

15 April 2020—Hawaii lags behind other states in release of COVID-19 data, Honolulu Civil Beat: Tim Brown

“When you put out 26 when the number is really 56, you’re downplaying the problem and giving the public the wrong impression,” said Tim Brown, a Senior Fellow at the East-West Center who specializes in infectious disease epidemiology and modeling. “I’m a firm believer that in public health you give the public the truth and let them make their own choices.” In particular, Brown would like to see the Department of Health provide more information about contact tracing and the clusters of positive coronavirus cases that are popping up in the community so that individuals can use that information to change their habits. He said this will be especially important as officials consider allowing businesses to reopen and life begins to get back to some semblance of normalcy. The number of hospitalizations is important, too, he said, because those figures highlight just how serious contracting COVID-19 can be. “It’s valuable for people to see that this thing is not a gentle virus,” Brown said.

15 April 2020—Two plans to reopen Hawaii's economy, The Conversation (Hawaii Public Radio): Tim Brown

Tim Brown, infectious disease specialist at the East-West Center, stresses that testing for COVID-19 is "critically important from a public health perspective in terms of giving us the entry point for contact tracing."

14 April 2020—Korea's economic policy to oveercome the corona virus: Concentration and speed [in Korean], U. Korea News: Joonkyung Ha

14 April 2020—VIDEO: Conditions to lifting Hawaii shutdown debated, Big Island Video News: Tim Brown

According to a presentation by Tim Brown, a Senior Fellow at the East-West Center, lifting the shutdown all hinges on “having the capacity to rapidly test suspected cases, trace their close contacts, and quarantine them to stem the growth of the epidemic.” “In addition, we must have data to inform triggers for re-imposing lockdown should the epidemic resurge,” Brown said. “The worry I do have is that because the social isolation measures have been so effective, only a small fraction of the population has contracted the COVID-19 virus so far,” Brown said. “Based on experiences with other coronaviruses, these people are likely to have some measure of at least temporary immunity to reinfection. However, the rest of the population—the other 99.9% percent of us—are still as vulnerable to infection as ever. This virus spreads remarkably easily and quickly in the absence of controls. Each person infected transmits the virus to 2 or 3 others, usually within a period of several days, and sometimes before they even develop symptoms. If we were to lift the shutdown measures now and go back to our previous way of life, we could easily find ourselves in a New York type situation within a month or two.”

“Thus, as we lift the restrictions,” Brown continued, “unless we are prepared to see this epidemic take off again, we will need to identify new infections promptly, trace their close contacts, and get those people into isolation as quickly as we can.” “This creates preconditions for lifting the shutdown,” Brown stated. “We must have a solid testing and contact tracing program in place, and we must have the ability to ensure isolation of close contacts of coronavirus cases from the community. If we reopen without these programs in place, we’re wearing blinders .”

14 April 2020—Hawaii appears to be flattening the COVID-19 curve—for now, Honolulu Civil Beat: Tim Brown

Any model of COVID-19 in Hawaii is hampered by limited data, however, says Tim Brown, an infectious disease modeler and Senior Fellow at the East-West Center. “The data here is sparse enough that any model is not likely to be particularly solid or realistic here,” says Brown, who specializes in HIV/AIDS and has been observing the progress of the coronavirus in Hawaii. But Brown agrees that the epidemic on Oahu appears to be slowing down, noting that cases in Maui County appear to be trending upward. “Whether that will hold up we will see,” he says.

14 April 2020—Hawaii experts disagree over importance of testing in reopening economy, Hawaii Public Radio: Tim Brown

Tim Brown, an infectious disease specialist at the East-West Center, co-wrote a plan with economist Sumner LaCroix of the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization. Their plan emphasized the importance of testing for the novel coronavirus. At Monday’s briefing to lawmakers, Brown reaffirmed the importance of testing. “Where it's critically important from a public health perspective is really in terms of giving us the entry point for contact tracing,” he said.

14 April 2020—Hawaii has the lowest coronavirus infection rate in U.S.—so far, Government Technology [also appeared in Honolulu Star-Advertiser]: Tim Brown

Tim Brown, a senior fellow at the East-West Center with expertise in infectious disease and behavioral epidemiology, said the stay-home order and social distancing, for the most part, are “having the desired effect.” There has been relatively slow growth in hospitalizations and deaths, and “because this virus usually manifests in symptoms in less than two weeks, if the virus were widespread in the community, these numbers would be growing more rapidly,” Brown told the House select committee Monday. But before the state can lift the statewide lockdown, it must have the capacity to more rapidly test suspected cases, quickly trace their contacts and quarantine people as needed, he said. The state also needs “data to inform triggers for re-imposing lockdown should the epidemic surge,” Brown said. Hawaii health officials will need that extra lab capacity and other resources to cope with the new coronavirus for the next one to two years until a vaccine is developed, he said. “If we were to lift the shutdown measures now and go back to our previous way of life, we could easily find ourselves in a New York type of situation within a month or two,” he said. He cited the example of Singapore, which has traced clusters of infections around workplaces, preschools, gyms, shipyards, private functions, and dormitories.

14 April 2020—House select committee’s fourth meeting looks at COVID-19 testing, business support, and leadership moving forward, State of Reform: Tim Brown

Tim Brown, Senior Fellow of the East-West Center, started a discussion on testing people for the virus, saying rapid turnaround of results along with a thorough contact tracing system are needed to get a better picture of who has virus and how it is spreading.

14 April 2020—Reopening Hawaii’s economy will likely be slow and painful, Honolulu Civil Beat: Tim Brown

One thing all seem to agree on is that it’s important to have a robust system to trace people who have been in contact with people who test positive. The challenge is that conducting fast and extensive contact tracing isn’t easy, said Tim Brown, an economist with the East-West Center who co-authored the UHERO paper with University of Hawaii economist Sumner La Croix. The COVID-19 contact tracing criteria involve tracking down anyone who came into contact—meaning within 2 meters for at least 15 minutes—with an infected person, Brown said. This typically can mean some 30 to 40 people, he said. “The staffing needs should not be understated,” Brown said. That’s where apps can come in. He pointed specifically to Safe Paths, an open source technology being developed by MIT. As MIT describes it, the technology allows people to “match the personal diary of location data on their smartphones with anonymized, redacted, and blurred location history of infected patients.”

13 April 2020—Date to reopen Hawai‘i economy a distant, moving target, Big Island Now: Tim Brown

Experts agree that a host of upgrades to testing capacity and efficiency, as well as data provided by technology the state does not yet possess, will be necessary before a date to reopen the economy can be set. Tim Brown, East-West Center Senior Fellow, said the state is a long way from obtaining either. “[Hawai‘i] must have a solid testing and contact tracing system in place and the ability to ensure isolation of close contacts from the community,” Brown said. “If we open without this in place, we’re wearing blinders and entering a leaky boat.” Contact tracing will provide a real-time picture of what the virus is doing. Currently, with a COVID-19 viral incubation period of up to two weeks and test turnaround times that stretch on for days instead of hours, the picture officials have is wildly out-of-date. Rapid turnaround tests are needed, Brown said, and the state must be able to process tests on its own without shipping them to the mainland.

13 April 2020—Hawaii must boost COVID-19 testing, contact tracing before reopening the economy, KITV-4: Tim Brown

Widespread testing and contact tracing data are needed before the economy can be reopened. “We must have a solid testing and contact tracing program in place and we must have the ability to ensure isolation of close contacts of coronavirus cases from the community," said Tim Brown, infectious disease expert and Senior Fellow at the East-West Center. "If we reopen without these programs in place, we're wearing blinders and piloting a leaky boat as we fight a deadly virus.”

13 April 2020—University's report weighs next steps for economy, tourism, Travel Weekly: Tim Brown

In a report published by the University of Hawaii on April 3, two researchers take a stab at charting Hawaii's next steps after the pandemic shutdown, including what needs to happen for tourism to flourish once again. The authors, University of Hawaii economics professor emeritus Sumner LaCroix and East-West Center Senior Fellow Tim Brown, suggest it could be a year or longer before Hawaii is fully open for business again but allow that the economy could bounce back sooner if certain criteria are realized. For one thing, more resources may need to be dedicated to monitoring those subject to quarantine, including electronic ankle bracelets or location-monitoring apps, and for contact tracing. Next, to further containment and inch closer to restarting shuttered businesses, the state must establish facilities where exposed people can be cared for in isolation, with potential candidates including hotels in tourist districts and neighborhoods or vacant military housing. Once the state has a handle on the pandemic, which means a sustained reduction in the number of new cases for at least 14 days, a drop in demand on hospital services and emergency services, and more robust testing and monitoring systems, then the restrictions can be lifted.

12 April 2020—Editorial: Trace for coronavirus containment, then carefully restart Hawaii businesses, Honolulu Star Advertiser: Tim Brown

The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) has drafted a plan titled “How to Control Hawaii’s Coronavirus Epidemic and Bring Back the Economy: The Next Steps,” authored by Sumner La Croix and Tim Brown, that presents a well-founded and rational strategy. One idea in the UHERO draft that could provide some immediate direction is the proposal that government workers who have been sidelined by the stay-at-home order could be drafted to help with “contact tracing.” That’s the critical function of identifying those whom a COVID-19-infected person had contacted, potentially passing on the virus.

9 April 2020—China may forge ahead of the US in the AI chip race, but at what cost to both?, South China Morning Post: Dieter Ernst

Competing in artificial intelligence chips: China’s challenge amid technology war, a special report by East-West Center Adjunct Senior Fellow Dieter Ernst assesses the challenges that China faces in developing its artificial intelligence (AI) industry due to unprecedented US technology export restrictions. A central proposition is that China's achievements in AI lack a robust foundation in leading-edge AI chips, and thus the country is vulnerable to externally imposed supply disruptions. From a US perspective, it is ironic that US restrictions on technology exports may actually strengthen China's resolve to accelerate the development of its domestic semiconductor industry.

8 April 2020—Hawaii has more steps to take to restart local, tourism economies, Pacific Business News: Tim Brown

The scenarios laid out by UHERO include restarting the local economy, which accounts for 77 percent of Hawaii’s gross domestic product, with businesses reorganizing operations to adapt to social distancing in the workplace. The tourism economy would follow.

8 April 2020—UHERO brief: Containing COVID-19, restoring the economy, University of Hawaii News: Tim Brown

Sumner La Croix, University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization (UHERO) research fellow and professor emeritus of economics, and Tim Brown, East-West Center Senior Fellow, examined the state’s efforts to control the coronavirus, studied the plan for testing, contact tracing and isolating, and looked at ways to reduce government-imposed restrictions and gradually reopen the economy. La Croix and Brown acknowledged the state has taken two major steps to limit the spread of COVID-19 through restricting travel and quarantining all arriving passengers for 14 days, and government orders for all residents and visitors to remain at home and to practice social distancing. The third step, which the authors said is the most challenging, is to expand testing, trace the contacts of those infected, enforce isolation and arrange care for ill and exposed people. The final step is for the state to gradually relax stay-at-home orders to allow for some economic activities to resume. However, this must be done with a strong monitoring system in place to avoid a COVID-19 resurgence.

7 April 2020—Researchers offer draft plan for coronavirus recovery, Honolulu Star Advertiser: Tim Brown

Police detectives, teachers, and government workers who have been idled by the pandemic might need to be drafted into service to work on a more aggressive coronavirus contact tracing program in Hawaii, according to the authors of a new paper published by the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization. UH researcher Sumner La Croix and East-West Center researcher Tim Brown also make a case for more extensive use of tracking technology to help enforce the quarantines of people who continue to fly to Hawaii or who have been exposed to the coronavirus. The authors also propose that a testing protocol must be established before mass tourism can restart to ensure that visitors coming to Hawaii are not infected.

6 April 2020—Ige, UH economists agree: COVID-19 testing may be key to restoring tourism, Honolulu Civil Beat: Tim Brown

Hawaii’s tourism industry may take as long as 12 to 18 months to begin opening for business again but could restart sooner if certain conditions are met, according to a new study titled How to control Hawaii’s coronavirus epidemic and bring back the economy: The next steps by Sumner LaCroix, UH Professor Emeritus of Economics, and Tim Brown, Senior Fellow with the East-West Center. Commenting on the study, Carl Bonham, executive director of the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO), told the Hawaii House Select Committee on COVID-19 Economic and Financial Preparedness, “Tourism can resume very quickly if Hawaii is perceived as a safe place.… Hawaii could be the premier destination for U.S. travelers over the next year.”

6 April 2020—Echoes of Spanish flu pandemic in Hawaii a century ago heard in coronavirus outbreak, Honolulu Star Advertiser: Eleanor C. Nordyke

Written by former state Statistician Robert C. Schmitt and Eleanor C. Nordyke, a population expert formerly at the East-West Center, a paper in the Hawaii Journal of History recounts the health crisis that gripped the then-U.S. territory during World War I and through the first half of 1920. From the Spanish flu, health officials learned that social distancing and shutting down events and gathering places are effective measures to battle a dangerous respiratory virus.

5 April 2020—Survey: Most of us are staying home during virus outbreak, Honolulu Civil Beat: Tim Brown

About 2% of respondents to a new Hawaii survey say they are living in households where someone has COVID-19 or its symptoms. And 3% said they kept attending social gatherings even after Hawaii’s March 25 stay-at-home order. Those are just a couple of the findings in an ongoing study that seeks to learn more about how people are getting the coronavirus and how it spreads. The survey by Pacific Urban Resilience Lab at the University of Hawaii includes 11,000 responses gathered during the last week of March. Tim Brown, a Senior Fellow at the East-West Center who specializes in infectious disease and behavioral epidemiology, cautions against inferring too much from these initial results. “You certainly don’t want to over-interpret it and assume that it’s representative of what’s going on in the community,” he said. Still, given the dearth of data about COVID-19 in Hawaii right now, “Any information is useful at this point,” he said.

5 April 2020—Why relaunching tourism can only be the last step after bringing back the economy, ETurbo News: Global Travel Industry News: Tim Brown

This comprehensive article spells out in detail how increased testing, comprehensive contact tracing, and isolation of exposed and infected individuals can lead to a rapid reduction in new infections and hospitalizations in Hawaii. Once this system has been put in place and has operated successfully for several weeks, Hawaii may begin to approach several measurable targets—number of new infections, number of new hospitalizations, capacity of the health care system to treat newly infected or exposed individuals—that would enable Governor Ige to gradually relax his stay-at-home order and for individuals to gradually relax some social distancing restrictions. The tourism economy will take longer to restart than the non-tourism economy. This is because tourism from overseas will only resume when either: (1) a vaccine is developed; (2) the coronavirus epidemic is brought completely under control in areas sending tourists to Hawaii; or (3) rapid, same-day antigen tests become available to pre-screen potential visitors.

4 April 2020—The imprecise science of predicting the spread of COVID-19, Honolulu Civil Beat: Tim Brown

Hawaii has confirmed more than 300 COVID-19 infections and three deaths. Compared with national estimates, mapping the trajectory of the virus in Hawaii is particularly tough because of limited data, says Tim Brown, a Senior Fellow at the East-West Center who specializes in infectious disease and behavioral epidemiology. “Right now any models that are being done are relatively ad hoc,” he said. “We’d probably need a more complete picture of what the situation is in the community which we don’t really have right now because the testing is all with symptomatic people. It will take another two to three weeks of data collection and more information about community transmission before the numbers will be significant enough to show a trend," Brown says.

4 April 2020—Rural-to-urban transition may explain viral outbreaks: Vietnam study, Voice of America: James H. Spencer, Sumeet Saksena, and Jefferson Fox

In a study of Vietnam’s response to an avian flu outbreak in 2003, East-West Center scholars and colleagues in Vietnam found that infection rates were highest in areas that were in the process of urbanization and thus had a mix of conditions, such as different rates of toilet access and diverse bird populations near national highways. “On a practical level, information on the link between urban development and disease outbreaks can help government agencies identify which locations are most likely to experience an outbreak of avian influenza so that prevention efforts can be less costly, more targeted, and more effective,” they wrote. They added, “The concepts and methodology that were developed for this study could easily be adapted to many other disease threats, ranging from SARS, Ebola, and dengue fever to the current pandemic of COVID-19.”


3 April 2020—Links between urbanization and viral disease: Lessons for COVID-19, Daily News (Colombo, Sri Lanka): James H. Spencer, Sumeet Saksena, and Jefferson Fox

The current COVID-19 pandemic, which started in Wuhan, China, underscores what the public health community has warned about for more than two decades—the risk of viral diseases capable of spreading from animal to human hosts. The first outbreaks of “bird flu” (highly pathogenic avian influenza—HPAI, subtype H5N1)—raised similar concerns 20 years ago, concerns that have persisted with the outbreak of SARS in 2002–2004 and COVID-19 today.

2 April 2020—"Xi Jinping thought on diplomacy" fails to impress—or reassure, The Diplomat: Denny Roy

Although "Xi Jinping Thought on Diplomacy" is an exercise in public relations by Beijing intended to win over the international community, a close reading still provides plenty of cause for the rest of the world to be concerned about China’s growing global influence and impact. History should make us skeptical of Beijing’s claim, repeated in Xi Thought, that China will break the pattern of great powers using their relative strength and influence to exploit other states.

30 March 2020—An economic hurricane is hurtling towards the South Pacific, The Sydney Morning Herald: Karena Lyons

"Our best chance collectively is to isolate ourselves and break the chain of community transmission," says Karena Lyons, Director of Research at the East-West Center in Honolulu. "I know it was a big deal for my family in Samoa and New Zealand to refrain from going to church—but they did it and they started three weeks ago," says Lyons. "Thank goodness – it took a village to convince my mother."

28 March 2020—Pandemic won’t break the North Korea stalemate, The National Interest: Denny Roy

In Northeast Asia, the disruptive COVID-19 pandemic meets the intractable North Korea problem. Pyongyang is enduring the same wave of illness as its neighbors, but with a weaker economy and healthcare system. Nevertheless, the basic situation on the Korean Peninsula—a tense standoff between nuclear-armed and authoritarian Pyongyang and its US-backed democratic rival South Korea—will persist after the pandemic subsides. It is exceedingly unlikely that the COVID-19 crisis will force Pyongyang to change the direction of its security policy. On the other hand, it is highly likely the pandemic could push Pyongyang toward temporary tactical adjustments, possibly to include another peace offensive.

25 March 2020—China's coronavirus aid seeking to shift narrative away from Beijing's cover-up, experts say, ABC News [Australian Broadcasting Corporation]: Denny Roy

Denny Roy, a senior fellow at the Hawaii-based East-West Center, said China could be seeking to bolster its reputation as "a responsible country", at a time when other nations appeared to be scrambling. "This is why China has so strenuously pushed the notions that the disease is contained in China, that China did the rest of the world a favor by acting quickly and effectively, and that China is now a major international benefactor by giving medical suppliers to other virus-hit countries," he said.

25 March 2020—CCP actively aids foreign countries to increase influence [in Chinese], Epoch Times: Denny Roy

25 March 2020—China's frequent actions to fight the epidemic are cold-headed: Motivation is not altruistic [in Chinese], Central News Agency: Denny Roy

25 March 2020—International Relations Task Force addresses common issues, States News Service: Richard Vuylsteke and Denny Roy

The East-West Center's president, Richard Vuylsteke, provided a broad-based outlook on America's regional relations. Leveraging his experience with the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong and Taipei, Vuylsteke reflected on the region's movement towards an economic and political inflection point. With respect to Hong Kong and Taiwan, institutional principles of openness and transparency are coming under greater scrutiny vis a vis China's posture towards market openness, rule of law, and local governance. Vuylsteke was followed by Denny Roy, Senior Fellow and Northeast Asia security specialist at EWC, who drilled down into observations about the U.S. Free and Open Indo-Pacific Policy, Asia-Pacific security issues, and Chinese foreign policy.

19 March 2020—China won’t achieve regional hegemony, The Washington Quarterly: Denny Roy

Whether it seeks regional hegemony or not, China’s potential to dominate is restrained by a combination of domestic and international factors including, but not limited to, US commitments and regional resistance to a change in leadership. The region’s future will be more bipolar than unipolar.

6 March 2019—COVID-19 crisis reveals the CCP's true colors, The Japan Times: Denny Roy

The COVID-19 outbreak highlights what some would say is a strength of the Chinese political system: the ability to make quick and bold policy adjustments, such as shutting down travel between large Chinese cities and enforcing restrictions on banned public activity. But the health crisis also reminds us of an unpleasant truth about the Chinese Communist Party: For all the talk from Chinese officials and state-approved commentators about how the rise of China is good for the world, the overwhelming and driving objective of the CCP is its own survival.

4 March 2020—Four coronavirus-driven Chinese consumer trends that will last even after the epidemic has subsided, South China Morning Post: Sumeet Saksena

The outbreak has hastened the transition to e-commerce and accelerated the use of artificial intelligence and robotics. People are also flocking to local stores and pickup points instead of patronizing centralised shopping areas and are showing more interest in food safety and health.

2 March 2020—Why a South Korean church was the perfect petri dish for coronavirus, The Wall Street Journal: Tim Brown

When infections occur, institutions and individuals must quickly share information to locate the virus’s source and prevent further spread. “Failure to do so creates distrust, and distrust disrupts transparency,” said Tim Brown, an infectious-disease researcher at the East-West Center who has consulted with the WHO, “making containment even more challenging, if not impossible.”

18 February 2020—Investments In shared surveillance systems, urban infrastructure integral to managing risks from emerging infectious diseases, experts say, Kaiser Daily Global Health Policy Report: James H. Spencer, Catherine L. Ross and Sumeet Saksena

Even more so than shared surveillance systems, compatible social and urban infrastructure are needed to manage emerging infectious disease risks effectively.

17 February 2020—Opinion: Smart cities can help fight against infectious diseases, Atlanta Journal-Constitution: James H. Spencer, Catherine L. Ross and Sumeet Saksena

Rapid urban transitions have led to the rise of emerging infectious diseases such as Coronavirus, Avian Flu, MERS, SARS and Ebola. Research has shown that the "spillover" of infectious zoonotic pathogens from domesticated animals to humans happens most frequently where unplanned and rapid urbanization has combined with agricultural intensification and the conversion of natural habitats.

11 February 2020—Impact of coronavirus on global economy, The Conversation [Hawaii Public Radio]: Chris McNally

The Chinese economy has really changed. It is more service oriented, and sectors such as entertainment, retail, and tourism are being hit hard by the coronavirus. Many very large cities lack protective gear and testing kits. Factories that make masks, testing kits, and pharmaceuticals are ramping up production, but others will be closed longer, which also has an impact on South Korea and Japan.

11 February 2020—Republic of the Marshall Islands holds first national climate change and health dialog, Reliefweb: Laura Brewington and John Marra

On January 30-31, 2020, Pacific RISA and NOAA International Research and Applications Project Principal Investigator Laura Brewington of the East-West Center led the first national Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) Climate Change and Health Dialog in Majuro. NOAA’s Regional Climate Services Director, John Marra facilitated the Dialog. According to RMI Secretary of Health Jack Niedenthal, climate impacts on health are not merely something the country needs to prepare for in the future—they are happening right now.

12 January 2020—Beijing’s new ‘landing ship’ could be used to help invade Taiwan, Chinese media suggests, CNBC: Denny Roy

China has developed a new amphibious warship that could be used in future wars involving islands, according to a Beijing-controlled tabloid. “I think they are looking realistically to get Taiwan back in the near future,” Denny Roy, a senior fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu told CNBC Thursday. The think tank’s defense expert said Beijing’s strategy may be to effectively “frighten Taiwan into submitting without a fight.” According to Roy, Beijing is believed to have the capability today with its existing ships to send about 20,000 troops to Taiwan.

10 January 2020—Closer ties with China? Taiwan’s voters look likely to say, "No thanks," The Christian Science Monitor: Denny Roy

Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen was poised to win another four-year term, her campaign buoyed by a shored up political base and improved economic growth. She also received a boost from the backfiring of China’s pressure tactics toward Taiwan and also toward nearby Hong Kong. “On the part of the Beijing leadership, it’s ... not catastrophic but certainly an extremely unfavorable development if Tsai Ing-wen gets reelected,” says Denny Roy, senior fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu. “It will generally increase the weight in the debate of those who argue that Taiwan is slipping away and we, China, need to be doing something different to staunch that trend. That is the real danger,” he says.Still, some analysts downplay the significance of the dwindling of such formal ties. “What should really be important” to Taiwan is “very strong unofficial relations with important countries like the United States and Japan,” Mr. Roy says.

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East-West Center Research in the News: 2019

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