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16 December 2019—To prepare for a future with stronger hurricanes, Hawaii can learn from others—and itself, Hawaii News Now: Victoria Keener
Victoria Keener, a climate change research fellow for the East-West Center, said it’s clear that the state’s infrastructure is not strong enough to withstand the impacts of major natural disasters. "I think some of it is resources, but some of it is the kinds of disasters we've experienced. We've been very lucky," Keener said. "Just because we've been lucky, we haven't felt that push to upgrade our systems." She points to the 2019 infrastructure report card issued by the American Society of Civil Engineers, which gave Hawaii a D-plus grade.
2 December 2019—Kim Jong Un's year-end 'deadline' makes South Korea sweat, Nikkei Asian Review: Marcus Noland
Seoul is at odds with Washington over who will cover the costs of stationing 28,500 American troops in South Korea, and the Trump administration is leaning on Japan to pay more for its U.S. military presence. Analysts are concerned that these demands are chipping away at faith in the U.S. as being steadfastly committed to regional security cooperation."There are small but growing constituencies in both Japan and South Korea with the perception that the United States may be an unreliable partner and that both countries will need to shoulder responsibility for their own defenses against a nuclear-armed North Korea," said Marcus Noland, a nonresident senior fellow at the East-West Center in Hawaii.
21 November 2019—North Korea goes nuclear: A postmortem, The Diplomat: Denny Roy
How was North Korea able to attain nuclear missiles, despite U.S. opposition, when so many other countries have failed to do so? The DPRK succeeded where others failed largely because of three factors: the strength of North Korea’s determination to get a nuclear weapon; North Korea’s relative diplomatic and economic isolation; and the fact that the South Korean capital of Seoul is within DPRK artillery range.
13 November 2019—North Korea goes permanently nuclear—does it matter?, The Japan Times: Denny Roy
North Korea’s possession of an arsenal of nuclear-armed missiles increasingly looks permanent, and the international community has largely accommodated North Korea’s new status as a de facto nuclear weapons state. On balance, North Korea acquiring a nuclear arsenal has had surprisingly little impact on regional dynamics. The net result may well be to extend the life of the Kim Jong Un regime and to delay Korean reunification—a tragedy for much of the North Korean population but welcome to the countries on North Korea’s periphery.
12 November 2019—美學者：當心中國撒錢左右政治論述 藉此推銷專, Newtalk [Taiwan]: Denny Roy
American scholars: Beware of China’s money-spending political discourse to promote autocracy [in Chinese].
11 November 2019—How China uses money to control political discourse, Washington Times: Denny Roy
The recent controversy between China and the NBA over the Houston Rockets’ general manager supporting anti-government demonstrations in Hong Kong in a tweet sparked a welcome conversation in the United States: To what extent are Americans willing to sell out their political values for access to the lucrative Chinese market?
10 November 2019—Three-day international conference on ‘Sustainable Forestry in South Asia’ concludes at TERI SAS, India Education Dairy: Jefferson M. Fox
A three-day conference hosted by the Energy and Resources Institute School of Advanced Studies in Delhi, India, included a session on Social Forestry and Community Forest Management, chaired by Jefferson M. Fox of the East West Center. Addressing fellow delegates, presenter Dr. Sharachchandra Lele of Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and Environment, India, remarked, “We need to have a land change science that speaks directly to decentralized forest governments. Particularly, the benefits of implementing community rights."
5 November 2019—Honolulu and Maui to join more than a dozen U.S. communities suing fossil fuel companies for climate change damages, Union of Concerned Scientists: Victoria Keener
“In Hawai’i, we see rainfall patterns changing, coral reefs bleaching and dying, and sea levels rising,” said Victoria Keener, research fellow at the East-West Center. “We have more than $19 billion at stake just in the value of land and structures in Hawai’i expected to flood by 2100, and that doesn’t include the social costs.”As lead author of the Hawai’i and Pacific Islands chapter of the Fourth U.S. National Climate Assessment, Keener knows that Hawai’i can expect more damaging climate impacts are in store for the state and region. Cities and states must dramatically increase their resiliency efforts,” she said, “which raises a question: How are Hawaii’s residents and businesses going to bear these costs?”
31 October 2019—Belt And Road Initiative: Why China pursues it, Eurasia Review: Anu Anwar
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is now enshrined in China's Communist Party Charter as Chairman Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy initiative, and a failure could undermine the legitimacy of the party itself. Why is Beijing so determined to push forward with BRI projects despite mounting economic and political risks? The rationale can be categorized into three internal and four external factors.
31 October 2019—Town hall forum highlights regional climate data, University of Guam website: Zena Grecni and Wendy Miles
A University of Guam town hall forum on 28 October shared highly anticipated data and projections on how the Pacific region will be affected by climate change and, specifically, how Guam will fare in the current century. Wendy Miles, program manager with the Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments program, and Zena Grecni, a sustained climate assessment specialist with the program, presented key findings from the Fourth National Climate Assessment, a federally mandated study that pools hundreds of authors and contributors to deliver scientific evidence of climate variability and change. Key takeaways from the Guam data include: (1) a dramatic increase in hot days and decline in cool nights; (2) slightly drier conditions; (3) stronger typhoons; (4) coral reef bleaching and loss; and (5) coastal flooding from sea level rise.
30 October 2019—Climate change workshop presents tough outlook for Guam, The Guam Daily Post: Zena Grecni
Zena Grecni, a sustained climate assessment specialist with the Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment program, gave a presentation on a Guam climate change assessment report at the first meeting of the Government of Guam Climate Change Resiliency Commission. “We are gathering all of the published literature, both government documents and peer-reviewed literature, and presenting it in one place,” said Grecni.
29 October 2019—Climate change commission holds meeting, Pacific Daily News: Wendy Miles
After experiencing hotter days and erratic weather in increasing frequency, the Government of Guam Climate Change Resilience Commission held a meeting with government officials to prepare for the future. Members of the commission outlined its goals and were given the chance to consult with subject experts to compile information to develop an assessment of the island, according to Dr. Wendy Miles of the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment program. “We are working on the Guam climate assessment in close coordination with local experts in Guam so that it can be specially tailored to Guam’s needs,” Miles said.
29 October 2019—Guam sees a rise in hotter days and sea levels due to climate change, Pacific Daily News: Zena Grecni
Climate change is an urgent problem for Guam and the rest of the world, said Zena Grecni, sustained climate assessment specialist with the Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program. Climate change "is not a distant threat. It's actually here, right now," Grecni said. "We've already documented a rise in very hot days in Guam." Grecni added that "sea level is also rising in Guam, causing more tidal flooding in low-lying coastal areas. I n addition, "it's expected that in the next couple of decades, reefs will have a difficult time surviving in these hotter waters," she said.
28 October 2019—Why Xi Jinping can't sell China's 'One Nation' strategy, The National Interest: Denny Roy
The Xi Jinping era has been disastrous for Chinese society, for China’s foreign relations, and particularly for China's relations with Taiwan, according to Denny Roy, Senior Fellow at the East-West Center. Beijing has increased pressure on Taiwan to agree to unification under a "one country, two systems" model, but at the same time Beijing has made the already unpopular prospect of political unification even less attractive. Events in Hong Kong have also demonstrated that China is not keeping its promises, and the world, including Taiwan, is watching.
10 October 2019—China-America lost confidence. A "break" has been and is happening [in Vietnamese], SOHA: Charles Morrison
According to Charles Morrison of the East-West Center, there are very few signs that the US economy has benefited from the trade war with China. So far, most Americans have not felt much of an impact, but this fall's round of tariff hikes is expected to significantly affect consumer prices. The main victims so far are American farmers. The price of agricultural products such as corn and soybeans fell sharply after Chinese importers turned to other markets. In addition, both Chinese and US companies are worried that the political environment will affect their business operations, and foreign direct investment has decreased significantly.
9 October 2019—Risking China backlash, Taiwan and Britain push ahead with free trade talks, South China Morning Post: Denny Roy
Britain might sign a deal with Taiwan despite the risk of backlash from Beijing, said Denny Roy, senior fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu. “Perhaps most important is that the UK appears to be looking at trade with Taiwan on its economic merits, rather than prejudicially shying away out of fear of offending the much bigger China market,” Roy said. “So, the UK is poised to modestly help Taiwan increase its international economic space.”
8 October 2019—Trump impeachment inquiry splits American society and exacerbates political crisis, PenzaNews [Russia]: Denny Roy
According to Denny Roy, Senior Fellow at the East-West Center, “Trump is a highly unusual president who got elected mostly due to the support of Americans who believe their interests are not served by conventional politicians in Washington. These Trump supporters welcome the idea of Trump as the anti-politician. Therefore they saw Trump’s lack of experience in government, indulgence in divisive and often offensive or mean-spirited rhetoric, simplistic approaches to complex issues, and braggadocio as strengths rather than the kind of weaknesses that would ordinarily disqualify a candidate from getting substantial public support.”
“In this latest scandal involving the Ukrainian president, however, many Americans think Trump has crossed the line over into clearly corrupt and criminal behavior. Two of the strengths of the US political system are transparency and institutional safeguards against an abuse of power by even a high official, and we are now seeing these in action as the opposition Democratic Party is thoroughly investigating Trump and some of his close associates with a view toward impeachment based on a complaint by an anonymous government employee,” Denny Roy said.
“The investigations might uncover enough additional damning evidence to convince a Republican Party-controlled Senate to throw Trump out, or to prompt Trump to resign. But conversely, the impeachment investigations might increase public acceptance of Trump’s claim that the Democratic Party is unfairly persecuting him, resulting in additional votes for Trump in the 2020 election. It is the latter risk that made the Democratic Party leadership so resistant against calls for impeachment until the latest Trump scandal,” the Senior Fellow at the East-West Center said.
7 October 2019—Counting women's work, University of Cape Town News: Morné Oosthuizen
In South Africa, unpaid housework and caregiving—provided almost entirely by women—accounts for about one-fourth of 27 percent of GDP. Women contribute at a similar level in Bangladesh, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Ghana, Kenya, Senegal, India and Vietnam. Researchers recommend policies to support market-provided childcare for adult women and also for younger women whose final school years might be interrupted by family care responsibilities. They also suggest policies that encourage men to take more active roles in their households, especially childcare, and greater work flexibility for all parents.
5 October 2019—"We need support": Pacific Islands seek help and unity to fight climate change: National Public Radio: Victoria Keener
A new report by an expert U.N. climate panel said the oceans are warming and sea ice and glaciers are melting much faster than previously thought, meaning storms will be more severe and frequent and sea levels will rise sooner. For the first time, the panel projected that some island nations could become “uninhabitable.” “It’s adding to their urgency,” said Victoria Keener, a climate change research fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu. The Pacific Islands “really pulled together to say, ‘We’re all in this together.’ What the islands need in addition to adaptation assistance are strong commitments and real action from the countries that are the biggest emitters,” according to Keener.
1 October 2019—Hawai'i's population is declining. Here's why you should care, Hawai'i Public Radio: Andrew Mason
Fewer babies are being born in Hawai'i' than in the past, and fewer people are moving to the islands than are moving away. As a result the population is becoming proportionally more aged, with a greater demand for health care but fewer healthy people to offset the cost. Andrew Mason, a population economist with the East West Center, says that since a smaller number of taxpayers will be footing the bill for Social Security and health care, Hawai'i's labor force will need to be more productive in the future. “There's an opportunity to improve the education system without spending a lot more money. In the future we may not have so many workers, but they'll be more educated and better prepared to pay for Social Security and health care,” Mason said.
1 October 2019—Improving air quality in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City: Need urgent and drastic solutions [in Vietnamese], QDND Online: Sumeet Saksena
Dr. Sumeet Saksena, representative of the US East-West Center, recommends that Vietnam should focus on air quality management, data collection, and accurate assessment of the situation. In addition, Mr. Sumeet also said that Vietnam needs to raise people's awareness about protecting the air environment.
28 September 2019—With the most polluted air in the world, why are Vietnamese indifferent? [in Vietnamese], Zing.vn: Sumeet Saksena
Dr. Sumeet Saksena, representative of the US East-West Center (EWC), said that Vietnam should focus on implementing air quality management and data collection so that people are given an accurate assessment of air quality. In particular, specialized units need to conduct research with street workers, sidewalk eateries, and those who breathe in exhaust fumes from vehicles. These are the people most likely to be affected by air pollution. "Vietnam needs to raise people's awareness about the risks and promote the participation of individuals in monitoring and collecting data on air pollution," Saksena said.
27 September 2019—Live and learn proposes to build a "smart city" in Vietnam [in Vietnamese], Environment: Sumeet Saksena
According to Dr. Saksena, Vietnam should focus on the citizen science model (air quality management, data collection), study the amount of time people are exposed to air pollution, and conduct research with people working on the street who inhale exhaust from vehicles. Vietnam needs to raise people's awareness about risks and promote participation in pollution monitoring and data collection.
27 September 2019—Recommendation to build a smart city for clean air in Vietnam [in Vietnamese], Vietnam+: Sumeet Saksena
On September 27, in Hanoi, the Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (INEST), Live and Learn, the East-West Center (EWC), and the Vietnam Clean Air Network (VCAP) jointly organized a Workshop on "Smart city solutions for clean air: Current practices and recommendations for Vietnam." Dr. Sumeet Saksena, representative of the East-West Center (USA), pointed out that the current international trend in air quality management of "smart cities" is to promote digitalization, prioritize smart programs and access, and provide real-time information.
27 September 2019—Managing air quality in cities [UTube video in Vietnamese], THVL: Sumeet Saksena
Air quality in big cities in our country is declining despite the implementation of many solutions. So what is the difficulty in managing air quality in Vietnam? How should we protect the atmosphere? This is exactly what the Smart Cities Solutions for Air seminar was about.
23 September 2019—Freaking out about climate change? This might help, Honolulu Civil Beat: Victoria Keener
Victoria Keener, a climate researcher at the East-West Center, noted, "In the past year we’ve seen a conversation about the rise in depression in the climate science community and people suffering grief about the ecological harm that we’ve been seeing from global warming.” Keener’s job at the East-West Center in Honolulu is to translate climate science into action plans, and the proactive nature of her work helps keep the anxiety at bay. She had three tips for those suffering from "eco-anxiety": Change your personal habits; educate yourself; and mobilize your community.
19 September 2019—How China is using tourists to realize its geopolitical goals, EastAsiaForum: Anu Anwar
The most rudimentary Chinese lever for rewarding other governments with increased Chinese tourist numbers is to grant countries "Approved Destination Status". Since the Chinese government has stronger regulatory power over tour agencies than most governments, it can also seek to influence foreign behaviour by curtailing such tours. But the utilization of tourism for geopolitical goals has had varying levels of success.
19 September 2019—The cost of Hawaii's record-breaking drought reaches millions, Hawaii Public Radio: Abby Frazier
Abby Frazier, a geographer at the East West Center specializing in drought research, recently explored the financial cost of a record-breaking drought that lasted from 2007 to 2014. “Revenue losses for the ranching industry were on the order of about $44.5 million dollars. They lost over 20,000 head of cattle and it's expected to take another 10 to 14 years to recover fully,” Frazier said. That recovery will cost an additional $4-6 million per year. Macadamia nut and coffee growers also incurred substantial losses. The project's Fact Sheet on the Economic Costs of Drought in Hawai'i provides more information.
17 September 2019—Economics professor receives award from South Korea President, University of Hawai'i News: Sang-Hyop Lee
East-West Center Senior Fellow Sang-Hyop Lee received a Presidential Commendation Award at the Government Complex in Daejeon, South Korea. The award was presented by Commissioner of Statistics Korea Kang Shin-Wook on behalf of South Korea President Moon Jae-In in recognition of Lee’s substantial contribution to national industrial development through the production of reliable statistics.
17 September 2019—The other danger of anti-Chinese hysteria, Pacific Forum: Denny Roy
In May 2019, Hong Kong-born Gladys Liu became the first Chinese-Australian woman elected to the Australian House of Representatives. Liu became an Australian citizen in 1992, but there are legitimate and serious concerns that Liu is at least partially acting as an agent of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) government in Beijing. In cases like this, the challenge for Western democracies such as Australia and the United States is to confront the real problem of Chinese influence operations while avoiding anti-Chinese racism.
13 September 2019—Tree-mendous: Community management and outmigration have helped Nepal double its forest area in 25 years, Nepali Times: Jefferson M. Fox
New analysis of historical satellite imagery indicates that Nepal’s forest area has nearly doubled, from 26% of land area in 1992 to 45% in 2016. Nepal has not been free from deforestation, but rather, on average, more new forests have grown up than have been cut down. Jefferson Fox, a geographer at the East-West Center in Honolulu who is the project’s principal investigator, thinks it is important to acknowledge Nepal’s forest successes, even if localised deforestation remains a problem in parts of the country.
4 September 2019—The gay Hong Kong Chinese men afraid to come out to their families, and why parents need educating to accept them, South China Morning Post: Tim Brown
Statistics show a solid majority of HIV diagnoses in Hong Kong have been in the group of men who have sex with men (MSM). Tim Brown, HIV epidemiologist from the East West Centre in Hawaii, once characterized HIV in Hong Kong as an epidemic within that group.
2 September 2019—The blackest hand in Hong Kong is Beijing's, The Japan Times: Denny Roy
China’s pressure to extend authoritarianism into Hong Kong, along with the crackdown on Uyghur nationalism in Xinjiang, help define the Xi Jinping era. Beijing is worried about a “color revolution,” will do anything necessary to pacify “Chinese” territory, and doesn’t care much what the rest of the world thinks.
20 August 2019—In Nepal, out-migration is helping fuel a forest resurgence, YaleEnvironment360: Jefferson M. Fox
Jefferson Fox, a geographer at the East-West Center at the University of Hawai'i who leads the NASA-funded team researching Nepal’s forest resurgence, says his data indicate that both community forestry and migration are associated with forest recovery, but that community forestry is the more important factor. He and his colleagues also found that variables often associated with remittance income — such as families with brick and concrete houses, indoor plumbing, and motorcycle ownership — positively correlate with forest resurgence. Fox hopes that his team’s detailed analysis of Landsat images will provide a more comprehensive picture of Nepal’s reforestation.
19 August 2019—'America’s military primacy in the Indo-Pacific is over,' Australian analysts worry, Washington Examiner: Denny Roy
“This report is part of a predictable wave of anxiety reaching the same conclusion—that U.S. strategic preeminence faces a serious challenge from China (and to a lesser degree Russia) and can no longer expect to prevail without correcting the bad habits built up during decades of comfortable dominance,” Denny Roy, a senior fellow at the East-West Center in Hawai'i, told the Washington Examiner…. “It is important that, as this report correctly notes, U.S. defense planners are working with a sense of urgency to reshape U.S. military capabilities and posture to account for what China is doing,” Roy said. “The bottom line is we would rather have the United States’ strategic problems and capabilities than China’s strategic problems and capabilities.”
19 August 2019—Trump plans to ship a fleet of F-16s to Taiwan. China isn’t happy about it, Los Angeles Times: Denny Roy
“The administration on average has a tougher and more adversarial view of China than the Obama administration,” said Denny Roy, senior fellow at the East-West Center think tank in Honolulu. “That leads to a greater willingness to treat Taiwan more as a security partner, because Taiwan’s strategic value has increased and because there is less incentive to try not to antagonize China.”
5 August 2019—Chinese diplomats encourage harassment of pro-democracy students abroad as Hong Kong protests spread, Washington Examiner: Denny Roy
As students in Australia and New Zealand protest in sympathy with the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong, Chinese diplomats are encouraging pro-Beijing counterprotesters. “In a sense this is the Chinese government’s domestic practice applied overseas,” Denny Roy, a senior fellow at the East-West Center in Hawaii, told the Washington Examiner. “But obviously there is a potential contradiction in trying to maintain a good national image while at the same time doing something disrespectful, in this case Beijing organizing activity that foreign countries will see as an outrageous intervention in their sovereign political systems…. Chinese officials behave as if China, by virtue of being a big and important country, is entitled to special consideration and privileges in its relationships with foreign countries,” Roy concurred. “Beijing’s attitude seems to be that once a partner nation realizes China is a valuable economic partner, the next step is to leverage that relationship to advance other parts of China’s agenda, and the Chinese seem to expect the partner to play ball.”
15 July 2019—The Next Long Drought, Ka Pili Kai: Abby Frazier
Abby Frazier, a research fellow at the East-West Center who studies rainfall and drought in the tropics, found that this past decade has been the driest on record for Hawai‘i in one hundred years. “Our findings show the most severe droughts are typically associated with El Niño events, and in recent decades the leeward coast of Hawai‘i Island has been the most drought-prone area in the state,” Frazier said. “Regional projections show that unusually severe dry seasons will become increasingly common on the leeward side of all Hawaiian Islands,” Frazier added.
14 July 2019—The US is not asking Singapore to side with America or against China: American diplomat, Yahoo News: Denny Roy
Dr Denny Roy, a senior fellow at the East-West Center, told Yahoo News Singapore that he concurred with views expressed by Stephanie Syptak-Ramnath, the top American diplomat in Singapore. “Countries such as Singapore should think of their response to the rivalry between the United States and China not as siding with the USA versus siding with China, but rather as supporting the international norms and institutions that provide regional states the best opportunities to achieve security and prosperity.” Dr Roy added that he did not expect small and medium powers in the region to ever face “an absolute, all-or-nothing choice” between the two big powers. “Rather they will make a large number of small choices that will accumulate over time, some reflecting China's influence and some America's influence. Gradually each country might move closer to one of the big powers without completely breaking away from the other.”
20 June 2019—China's Xi, North Korea's Kim meet, both seeking leverage with the US, The Wall Street Journal: Denny Roy
Chinese President Xi Jinping kicked off a two-day summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang that could advance the two communist allies' stalled negotiations with the US. "The U.S. should never be comfortable with the idea of China as the mediator [in talks with North Korea]," said Denny Roy, a Senior Fellow at the East-West Center. "A lot of hopes on various issues about North Korea from 2018 have been dashed in 2019."
20 June 2019—Progress on the Kim-Trump talks or a new card for China to play?, South China Morning Post: Denny Roy
Denny Roy, Senior Fellow at the East-West Center, said this week's meeting between Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un is likely to emphasize North Korea’s willingness to negotiate on denuclearization, but differences with America would remain a stumbling block. “I think in Beijing’s view that means the Americans would accept a deal more favorable to Pyongyang, one where the North Koreans get a lot of sanctions relief for little or no substantial denuclearization,” he said. “That, of course, will be a complete non-starter in Washington.”
10 June 2019—This is no way to win a trade war with China, The National Interest: Denny Roy
There is little dispute that China engages in unfair and often predatory practices to protect and promote its domestic industries. Yet most observers believe that the US attempt to use unilateral tariffs to remedy the problem will fail to achieve its intended objectives and will harm the US economy as much as China’s. Furthermore, this episode may strengthen China’s confidence that it will prevail in future tests of will.
30 May 2019—A widening China-US perception gap, EE Times: Dieter Ernst
Much damage has already been done to America’s once seemingly invincible "soft power" image. Many in the Chinese IT industry are visibly hurt by the aggressive language used in the US policy announcements. This deep sense of disappointment is even more palpable among students at China's leading universities.
29 May 2019—Trump's trip to Japan reveals some mixed signals, The Washington Post: Kristi Govella
During President Trump's recent four-day visit to Japan, he and Prime Minister Abe pulled off a showy demonstration of the bonds between their two countries. Trump's visit also revealed persistent and troubling areas of divergence, however, on issues such as trade and North Korea. The United States and Japan will eventually have to tackle these disagreements, but with this visit, that day of reckoning seems to have been postponed.
25 May 2019—Technology and politics: Huawei has been cut off from American technology, The Economist: Dieter Ernst
The US Commerce Department recently added Huawei to a list of firms with which American companies cannot do business without official permission, which amounts to a prohibition on exports of American technology to Huawei. China has already committed billions of dollars to efforts to boost its domestic capabilities in chipmaking and technology, and America’s ban highlights the urgency of that policy.
22 May 2019—China's innovation policy and the quest for semiconductor autonomy—Q&A with Dieter Ernst, American Chamber of Commerce Shanghai Newsletter: Dieter Ernst
As the rise of economic nationalism in the US interacts with the recentralization of state control in China, it is now much more difficult to identify and mobilize stakeholders in both countries who would be willing to compromise and to find areas for selective cooperation. Intensifying trade, investment, and technology conflicts are likely to dominate US-China economic relations for quite some time.
21 May 2019—Tech warfare outbreak hits China's AI, EE Times: Dieter Ernst
The damage done by the recent U.S. declaration of open technology warfare with China is likely to be serious and long lasting. All participants in the global semiconductor industry will be affected, irrespective of their nationality.
18 May 2019—America still leads in technology, but China is catching up fast, The Economist: Dieter Ernst
It is a mistake to exaggerate China’s strengths in big-data analysis and AI, according to Dieter Ernst of the East-West Center. A near-total lack of privacy protection may help sweep up lots of data, but American firms are better at advanced algorithms that make AI less dependent on big data sets. Big Chinese applications are still mostly powered by American-designed chips, which remain world-beating.
7 May 2019—Younger Okinawans' view of U.S. bases isn't black and white, The Japan Times: Charles E. Morrison
An East-West Center study of young adult Okinawans showed a broad consensus that Okinawa hosts more than its fair share of foreign military bases and that Tokyo does not give due regard to Okinawan views. There was wide support for increased access to the U.S. bases, enhanced relations between U.S. service personnel and local communities, and more dialogue on Okinawa base-related issues. The study found very little support for Okinawan independence or even special autonomy, but a strong sense of local pride coupled with resentment that Okinawa is under-appreciated elsewhere in Japan.
21 April 2019—North Korea’s latest moves show how Kim Jong-un has turned the tables on the US, South China Morning Post: Denny Roy
Pyongyang has its nuclear missile capability despite Washington’s efforts, and with help from Beijing and Moscow and a US election next year, Kim is now asserting leverage over America.
21 April 2019—Younger Okinawans are more tolerant of U.S. military presence, study finds, Honolulu Star-Advertiser: Charles E. Morrison and Daniel Chinen
Opposition to the U.S. military base presence that is so often highlighted in Okinawa, Japan, may be less widespread among a younger generation of Okinawans.
12 March 2019—The Hanoi summit: We asked Denny Roy what happens next in US-North Korea relations, The National Interest: Denny Roy
The breakdown in Hanoi suggested that sanctions—not the “peace regime,” political recognition, or US-ROK military exercises—are Pyongyang’s overwhelming concern. If Pyongyang is not willing to offer more denuclearization for sanctions relief, the current stalemate will likely continue.
11 March 2019—Failed Hanoi summit helps US and North Korea leaders fake fresh look at situation, Eurasia Review: Denny Roy
“The US side wanted lots of de-nuclearization in exchange for little sanctions relief. The North Korean side wanted lots of sanctions relief in exchange for little de-nuclearization. They couldn’t reach a mutually agreeable middle ground. The real problem was the lack of preparatory work prior to the summit, which ordinarily would produce an agreement before the top leaders meet."
9 March 2019—Change is afoot, The Garden Island: Victoria Keener
Keener pointed out projected threats to freshwater supplies; to terrestrial ecosystems, ecosystem services and biodiversity; to coastal communities and systems; to fisheries, coral reefs and other marine resources; and to culture, indigenous communities and knowledge. She emphasized the cumulative impacts, such as social costs: "The impacts are here and now.”
8 March 2019—China eyes alternative sources for maritime expansion, Voice of America: Denny Roy
The People’s Liberation Army could delay or cut back endeavors elsewhere to “maintain the pace of strengthening China's position in the South China Sea,” said Denny Roy, Senior Fellow at the East-West Center.
6 March 2019—University of Hawaii among the universities hacked by Chinese, KHON2: Eric Harwit
"The kind of research that we're doing here at UH is really some of the cutting edge work that our own Navy uses, and of course the Chinese military forces would want to know exactly what we're doing," said Eric Harwit of the East-West Center."It's not that the Chinese necessarily want to pirate our technologies, but they just want to know what we're doing so that they can develop countermeasures against them." Professor Harwit adds that Chinese hackers have been doing this for a long time. So all universities should develop more robust systems to guard against cyber attacks.
3 March 2019—What are visions for the denuclearization after second no-deal summit?, VietnamNet: Denny Roy
According to Denny Roy, a Senior Fellow at the East-West Center, Washington has the opportunity to reorient the US-North Korean relations toward a different, longer-term strategic goal: enticing North Korea out of China’s sphere of influence. In fact, the North Koreans are wary of Chinese domination. They frequently express a desire to extract themselves from over-reliance on China. The new approach would focus on cultivating a constructive working relationship with Pyongyang. This would require the US government to make early symbolic concessions to the North Koreans while accepting slow and incremental North Korean steps toward denuclearization. The US government could also agree to adjustments in US military presence on the peninsula that address North Korean complaints without substantially jeopardizing South Korea’s security.
28 February 2019—North Korea and America’s second summit: no deal, no worries, KITV: Denny Roy
Political analyst Dr. Denny Roy, an East-West Center Senior Fellow specializing in Northeast Asian affairs, assured an Oahu resident that "The danger of North Korea attacking Hawaii, with a missile or otherwise, was never great in my opinion, and is certainly now dormant." Dr. Roy says he was relieved Trump walked away from Thursday's talks. "There was a lot of worry that Trump might be suckered into making a deal that would be poor for the US but good for North Korea, because [Trump] wanted a quick win for whatever reason. But that didn't happen." The opposite happened," said Dr. Roy." While he said the US seems safe for now, he also said this is when you might want to worry: "If the North Koreans start to test again, either nuclear explosions or long range missiles, then we might get back to 2017 when things were more dicey."
9 February 2019—What's so scary about Huawei?, The Inquiry, BBC World Service: Eric Harwit
"Motorola, Lucent Technologies, those companies that were leaders just 20 years ago are pretty much out of the market because Huawei has taken over. You have companies like Cisco Systems that now have revenue that is half the size of Huawei's. They've developed chips that are more efficient, that have more function, that work better, at a price lower than Apple's, so it's not just the networking equipment. By next year, they may be the largest smartphone maker in the world. It's the economic threat that we have to worry about. That the Chinese companies are going to put some of our companies out of business, and in a way they're going to be eating our lunch."
6 February 2019—North Korea and America's second summit: Here's what Denny Roy thinks will happen, The National Interest: Denny Roy
There is little chance of a return to the high tensions of 2017 under the new conditions of 2019. For instance, China has relaxed its commitment to enforcing economic sanctions against North Korea, Seoul is enthusiastically moving to deepen North-South economic integration, and Pyongyang has stopped testing missiles and nuclear bombs. We are moving toward a new normal: North Korea as a de facto permanent nuclear weapons state, reduced tensions on the Korean Peninsula, and the chance to accelerate the Kim regime’s demise through increased exposure to South Korea’s subversive soft power.
29 January 2019—Nuclear threat grows as US prepared to withdraw from INF treaty, TruthOut: Denny Roy
At a recent international gathering of visiting nuclear arms researchers, academics, and reporters hosted by the East-West Center, Denny Roy noted increased competition between the US and China in the areas of security and economics. “We’ve even seen this competition intensify to the point where the gloves seem to be off,” he said, pointing to a shift under the Trump administration by characterizing China not as a partner-competitor, but as an unambiguous adversary. He also pointed to a bolder stance by Chinese President Xi Jinping in calling for an end to US strategic pre-eminence in global governance. Roy said the US shouldn’t take for granted what he called China’s “minimal deterrent posture” but should avoid policy steps that would “provoke China into trying to compete as vigorously in the area of numbers of nuclear weapons as China competes with the United States in lots of other areas.”
22 January 2019—Nepal should hedge, My Republica: Denny Roy
At a time when relations between great power nations are uncertain and changing, Denny Roy, Senior Fellow at the East-West Center, suggests that a small country such as Nepal might initiate military cooperation with one super power to increase assurances of cooperation (particularly economic) with a rival power.
18 January 2019—Vietnam gains bargaining power over China in conduct at sea talks, Voice of America: Denny Roy
Vietnam’s tough stance against China over sovereignty of the South China Sea will put Beijing on the defensive during regional talks on easing the regional maritime dispute. “Vietnam is in a difficult position as perhaps the country that is pushing back most vociferously against the gradual expansion of Chinese control over the South China Sea,” said Denny Roy, Senior Fellow at the East-West Center.“Hanoi must draw attention for playing the role of standing up to China,” Roy said. “Otherwise China will meet less resistance from ASEAN. In that sense Vietnamese pushback might make a difference.”
18 January 2019—Pentagon report hints at coming US-China escalation, ThinkProgress: Denny Roy
Denny Roy, Senior Fellow at the East-West Center, said there’s nothing new in how China views Taiwan. The United States, China, and Taiwan all know how to avoid direct conflict, so long as Taiwan doesn’t “make a clear move toward independence,” which the current government is unlikely to do. “The inexperience on all sides with the idea of using cyber attacks as part of a military campaign injects a wildcard, however,” Roy added.
9 January 2019—Kim Jong Un's visit to China preludes second Trump-Kim summit: China's role crucial, Straits Times: Denny Roy
Dr Denny Roy, a Senior Fellow at the East West Center in Honolulu, was pessimistic about a positive outcome from a second Trump-Kim summit. The most likely result would be "each government again claiming a victorious breakthrough, with little if any substantive change in the factors that created the crisis except Trump dropping the threat to take preventive military action against North Korea", he told the Straits Times.
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16 December 2019—To prepare for a future with stronger hurricanes, Hawaii can learn from others—and itself, Hawaii News Now: Victoria Keener
Victoria Keener, a climate change research fellow for the East-West Center, said it’s clear that the state’s infrastructure is not strong enough to withstand the impacts of major natural disasters. "I think some of it is resources, but some of it is the kinds of disasters we've experienced. We've been very lucky," Keener said. "Just because we've been lucky, we haven't felt that push to upgrade our systems." She points to the 2019 infrastructure report card issued by the American Society of Civil Engineers, which gave Hawaii a D-plus grade.
2 December 2019—Kim Jong Un's year-end 'deadline' makes South Korea sweat, Nikkei Asian Review: Marcus Noland
Seoul is at odds with Washington over who will cover the costs of stationing 28,500 American troops in South Korea, and the Trump administration is leaning on Japan to pay more for its U.S. military presence. Analysts are concerned that these demands are chipping away at faith in the U.S. as being steadfastly committed to regional security cooperation."There are small but growing constituencies in both Japan and South Korea with the perception that the United States may be an unreliable partner and that both countries will need to shoulder responsibility for their own defenses against a nuclear-armed North Korea," said Marcus Noland, a nonresident senior fellow at the East-West Center in Hawaii.
21 November 2019—North Korea goes nuclear: A postmortem, The Diplomat: Denny Roy
How was North Korea able to attain nuclear missiles, despite U.S. opposition, when so many other countries have failed to do so? The DPRK succeeded where others failed largely because of three factors: the strength of North Korea’s determination to get a nuclear weapon; North Korea’s relative diplomatic and economic isolation; and the fact that the South Korean capital of Seoul is within DPRK artillery range.
13 November 2019—North Korea goes permanently nuclear—does it matter?, The Japan Times: Denny Roy
North Korea’s possession of an arsenal of nuclear-armed missiles increasingly looks permanent, and the international community has largely accommodated North Korea’s new status as a de facto nuclear weapons state. On balance, North Korea acquiring a nuclear arsenal has had surprisingly little impact on regional dynamics. The net result may well be to extend the life of the Kim Jong Un regime and to delay Korean reunification—a tragedy for much of the North Korean population but welcome to the countries on North Korea’s periphery.
12 November 2019—美學者：當心中國撒錢左右政治論述 藉此推銷專, Newtalk [Taiwan]: Denny Roy
American scholars: Beware of China’s money-spending political discourse to promote autocracy [in Chinese].
11 November 2019—How China uses money to control political discourse, Washington Times: Denny Roy
The recent controversy between China and the NBA over the Houston Rockets’ general manager supporting anti-government demonstrations in Hong Kong in a tweet sparked a welcome conversation in the United States: To what extent are Americans willing to sell out their political values for access to the lucrative Chinese market?
10 November 2019—Three-day international conference on ‘Sustainable Forestry in South Asia’ concludes at TERI SAS, India Education Dairy: Jefferson M. Fox
A three-day conference hosted by the Energy and Resources Institute School of Advanced Studies in Delhi, India, included a session on Social Forestry and Community Forest Management, chaired by Jefferson M. Fox of the East West Center. Addressing fellow delegates, presenter Dr. Sharachchandra Lele of Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and Environment, India, remarked, “We need to have a land change science that speaks directly to decentralized forest governments. Particularly, the benefits of implementing community rights."
5 November 2019—Honolulu and Maui to join more than a dozen U.S. communities suing fossil fuel companies for climate change damages, Union of Concerned Scientists: Victoria Keener
“In Hawai’i, we see rainfall patterns changing, coral reefs bleaching and dying, and sea levels rising,” said Victoria Keener, research fellow at the East-West Center. “We have more than $19 billion at stake just in the value of land and structures in Hawai’i expected to flood by 2100, and that doesn’t include the social costs.”As lead author of the Hawai’i and Pacific Islands chapter of the Fourth U.S. National Climate Assessment, Keener knows that Hawai’i can expect more damaging climate impacts are in store for the state and region. Cities and states must dramatically increase their resiliency efforts,” she said, “which raises a question: How are Hawaii’s residents and businesses going to bear these costs?”
31 October 2019—Belt And Road Initiative: Why China pursues it, Eurasia Review: Anu Anwar
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is now enshrined in China's Communist Party Charter as Chairman Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy initiative, and a failure could undermine the legitimacy of the party itself. Why is Beijing so determined to push forward with BRI projects despite mounting economic and political risks? The rationale can be categorized into three internal and four external factors.
31 October 2019—Town hall forum highlights regional climate data, University of Guam website: Zena Grecni and Wendy Miles
A University of Guam town hall forum on 28 October shared highly anticipated data and projections on how the Pacific region will be affected by climate change and, specifically, how Guam will fare in the current century. Wendy Miles, program manager with the Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments program, and Zena Grecni, a sustained climate assessment specialist with the program, presented key findings from the Fourth National Climate Assessment, a federally mandated study that pools hundreds of authors and contributors to deliver scientific evidence of climate variability and change. Key takeaways from the Guam data include: (1) a dramatic increase in hot days and decline in cool nights; (2) slightly drier conditions; (3) stronger typhoons; (4) coral reef bleaching and loss; and (5) coastal flooding from sea level rise.
30 October 2019—Climate change workshop presents tough outlook for Guam, The Guam Daily Post: Zena Grecni
Zena Grecni, a sustained climate assessment specialist with the Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment program, gave a presentation on a Guam climate change assessment report at the first meeting of the Government of Guam Climate Change Resiliency Commission. “We are gathering all of the published literature, both government documents and peer-reviewed literature, and presenting it in one place,” said Grecni.
29 October 2019—Climate change commission holds meeting, Pacific Daily News: Wendy Miles
After experiencing hotter days and erratic weather in increasing frequency, the Government of Guam Climate Change Resilience Commission held a meeting with government officials to prepare for the future. Members of the commission outlined its goals and were given the chance to consult with subject experts to compile information to develop an assessment of the island, according to Dr. Wendy Miles of the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment program. “We are working on the Guam climate assessment in close coordination with local experts in Guam so that it can be specially tailored to Guam’s needs,” Miles said.
29 October 2019—Guam sees a rise in hotter days and sea levels due to climate change, Pacific Daily News: Zena Grecni
Climate change is an urgent problem for Guam and the rest of the world, said Zena Grecni, sustained climate assessment specialist with the Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program. Climate change "is not a distant threat. It's actually here, right now," Grecni said. "We've already documented a rise in very hot days in Guam." Grecni added that "sea level is also rising in Guam, causing more tidal flooding in low-lying coastal areas. I n addition, "it's expected that in the next couple of decades, reefs will have a difficult time surviving in these hotter waters," she said.
28 October 2019—Why Xi Jinping can't sell China's 'One Nation' strategy, The National Interest: Denny Roy
The Xi Jinping era has been disastrous for Chinese society, for China’s foreign relations, and particularly for China's relations with Taiwan, according to Denny Roy, Senior Fellow at the East-West Center. Beijing has increased pressure on Taiwan to agree to unification under a "one country, two systems" model, but at the same time Beijing has made the already unpopular prospect of political unification even less attractive. Events in Hong Kong have also demonstrated that China is not keeping its promises, and the world, including Taiwan, is watching.
10 October 2019—China-America lost confidence. A "break" has been and is happening [in Vietnamese], SOHA: Charles Morrison
According to Charles Morrison of the East-West Center, there are very few signs that the US economy has benefited from the trade war with China. So far, most Americans have not felt much of an impact, but this fall's round of tariff hikes is expected to significantly affect consumer prices. The main victims so far are American farmers. The price of agricultural products such as corn and soybeans fell sharply after Chinese importers turned to other markets. In addition, both Chinese and US companies are worried that the political environment will affect their business operations, and foreign direct investment has decreased significantly.
9 October 2019—Risking China backlash, Taiwan and Britain push ahead with free trade talks, South China Morning Post: Denny Roy
Britain might sign a deal with Taiwan despite the risk of backlash from Beijing, said Denny Roy, senior fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu. “Perhaps most important is that the UK appears to be looking at trade with Taiwan on its economic merits, rather than prejudicially shying away out of fear of offending the much bigger China market,” Roy said. “So, the UK is poised to modestly help Taiwan increase its international economic space.”
8 October 2019—Trump impeachment inquiry splits American society and exacerbates political crisis, PenzaNews [Russia]: Denny Roy
According to Denny Roy, Senior Fellow at the East-West Center, “Trump is a highly unusual president who got elected mostly due to the support of Americans who believe their interests are not served by conventional politicians in Washington. These Trump supporters welcome the idea of Trump as the anti-politician. Therefore they saw Trump’s lack of experience in government, indulgence in divisive and often offensive or mean-spirited rhetoric, simplistic approaches to complex issues, and braggadocio as strengths rather than the kind of weaknesses that would ordinarily disqualify a candidate from getting substantial public support.”
“In this latest scandal involving the Ukrainian president, however, many Americans think Trump has crossed the line over into clearly corrupt and criminal behavior. Two of the strengths of the US political system are transparency and institutional safeguards against an abuse of power by even a high official, and we are now seeing these in action as the opposition Democratic Party is thoroughly investigating Trump and some of his close associates with a view toward impeachment based on a complaint by an anonymous government employee,” Denny Roy said.
“The investigations might uncover enough additional damning evidence to convince a Republican Party-controlled Senate to throw Trump out, or to prompt Trump to resign. But conversely, the impeachment investigations might increase public acceptance of Trump’s claim that the Democratic Party is unfairly persecuting him, resulting in additional votes for Trump in the 2020 election. It is the latter risk that made the Democratic Party leadership so resistant against calls for impeachment until the latest Trump scandal,” the Senior Fellow at the East-West Center said.
7 October 2019—Counting women's work, University of Cape Town News: Morné Oosthuizen
In South Africa, unpaid housework and caregiving—provided almost entirely by women—accounts for about one-fourth of 27 percent of GDP. Women contribute at a similar level in Bangladesh, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Ghana, Kenya, Senegal, India and Vietnam. Researchers recommend policies to support market-provided childcare for adult women and also for younger women whose final school years might be interrupted by family care responsibilities. They also suggest policies that encourage men to take more active roles in their households, especially childcare, and greater work flexibility for all parents.
5 October 2019—"We need support": Pacific Islands seek help and unity to fight climate change: National Public Radio: Victoria Keener
A new report by an expert U.N. climate panel said the oceans are warming and sea ice and glaciers are melting much faster than previously thought, meaning storms will be more severe and frequent and sea levels will rise sooner. For the first time, the panel projected that some island nations could become “uninhabitable.” “It’s adding to their urgency,” said Victoria Keener, a climate change research fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu. The Pacific Islands “really pulled together to say, ‘We’re all in this together.’ What the islands need in addition to adaptation assistance are strong commitments and real action from the countries that are the biggest emitters,” according to Keener.
1 October 2019—Hawai'i's population is declining. Here's why you should care, Hawai'i Public Radio: Andrew Mason
Fewer babies are being born in Hawai'i' than in the past, and fewer people are moving to the islands than are moving away. As a result the population is becoming proportionally more aged, with a greater demand for health care but fewer healthy people to offset the cost. Andrew Mason, a population economist with the East West Center, says that since a smaller number of taxpayers will be footing the bill for Social Security and health care, Hawai'i's labor force will need to be more productive in the future. “There's an opportunity to improve the education system without spending a lot more money. In the future we may not have so many workers, but they'll be more educated and better prepared to pay for Social Security and health care,” Mason said.
1 October 2019—Improving air quality in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City: Need urgent and drastic solutions [in Vietnamese], QDND Online: Sumeet Saksena
Dr. Sumeet Saksena, representative of the US East-West Center, recommends that Vietnam should focus on air quality management, data collection, and accurate assessment of the situation. In addition, Mr. Sumeet also said that Vietnam needs to raise people's awareness about protecting the air environment.
28 September 2019—With the most polluted air in the world, why are Vietnamese indifferent? [in Vietnamese], Zing.vn: Sumeet Saksena
Dr. Sumeet Saksena, representative of the US East-West Center (EWC), said that Vietnam should focus on implementing air quality management and data collection so that people are given an accurate assessment of air quality. In particular, specialized units need to conduct research with street workers, sidewalk eateries, and those who breathe in exhaust fumes from vehicles. These are the people most likely to be affected by air pollution. "Vietnam needs to raise people's awareness about the risks and promote the participation of individuals in monitoring and collecting data on air pollution," Saksena said.
27 September 2019—Live and learn proposes to build a "smart city" in Vietnam [in Vietnamese], Environment: Sumeet Saksena
According to Dr. Saksena, Vietnam should focus on the citizen science model (air quality management, data collection), study the amount of time people are exposed to air pollution, and conduct research with people working on the street who inhale exhaust from vehicles. Vietnam needs to raise people's awareness about risks and promote participation in pollution monitoring and data collection.
27 September 2019—Recommendation to build a smart city for clean air in Vietnam [in Vietnamese], Vietnam+: Sumeet Saksena
On September 27, in Hanoi, the Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (INEST), Live and Learn, the East-West Center (EWC), and the Vietnam Clean Air Network (VCAP) jointly organized a Workshop on "Smart city solutions for clean air: Current practices and recommendations for Vietnam." Dr. Sumeet Saksena, representative of the East-West Center (USA), pointed out that the current international trend in air quality management of "smart cities" is to promote digitalization, prioritize smart programs and access, and provide real-time information.
27 September 2019—Managing air quality in cities [UTube video in Vietnamese], THVL: Sumeet Saksena
Air quality in big cities in our country is declining despite the implementation of many solutions. So what is the difficulty in managing air quality in Vietnam? How should we protect the atmosphere? This is exactly what the Smart Cities Solutions for Air seminar was about.
23 September 2019—Freaking out about climate change? This might help, Honolulu Civil Beat: Victoria Keener
Victoria Keener, a climate researcher at the East-West Center, noted, "In the past year we’ve seen a conversation about the rise in depression in the climate science community and people suffering grief about the ecological harm that we’ve been seeing from global warming.” Keener’s job at the East-West Center in Honolulu is to translate climate science into action plans, and the proactive nature of her work helps keep the anxiety at bay. She had three tips for those suffering from "eco-anxiety": Change your personal habits; educate yourself; and mobilize your community.
19 September 2019—How China is using tourists to realize its geopolitical goals, EastAsiaForum: Anu Anwar
The most rudimentary Chinese lever for rewarding other governments with increased Chinese tourist numbers is to grant countries "Approved Destination Status". Since the Chinese government has stronger regulatory power over tour agencies than most governments, it can also seek to influence foreign behaviour by curtailing such tours. But the utilization of tourism for geopolitical goals has had varying levels of success.
19 September 2019—The cost of Hawaii's record-breaking drought reaches millions, Hawaii Public Radio: Abby Frazier
Abby Frazier, a geographer at the East West Center specializing in drought research, recently explored the financial cost of a record-breaking drought that lasted from 2007 to 2014. “Revenue losses for the ranching industry were on the order of about $44.5 million dollars. They lost over 20,000 head of cattle and it's expected to take another 10 to 14 years to recover fully,” Frazier said. That recovery will cost an additional $4-6 million per year. Macadamia nut and coffee growers also incurred substantial losses. The project's Fact Sheet on the Economic Costs of Drought in Hawai'i provides more information.
17 September 2019—Economics professor receives award from South Korea President, University of Hawai'i News: Sang-Hyop Lee
East-West Center Senior Fellow Sang-Hyop Lee received a Presidential Commendation Award at the Government Complex in Daejeon, South Korea. The award was presented by Commissioner of Statistics Korea Kang Shin-Wook on behalf of South Korea President Moon Jae-In in recognition of Lee’s substantial contribution to national industrial development through the production of reliable statistics.
17 September 2019—The other danger of anti-Chinese hysteria, Pacific Forum: Denny Roy
In May 2019, Hong Kong-born Gladys Liu became the first Chinese-Australian woman elected to the Australian House of Representatives. Liu became an Australian citizen in 1992, but there are legitimate and serious concerns that Liu is at least partially acting as an agent of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) government in Beijing. In cases like this, the challenge for Western democracies such as Australia and the United States is to confront the real problem of Chinese influence operations while avoiding anti-Chinese racism.
13 September 2019—Tree-mendous: Community management and outmigration have helped Nepal double its forest area in 25 years, Nepali Times: Jefferson M. Fox
New analysis of historical satellite imagery indicates that Nepal’s forest area has nearly doubled, from 26% of land area in 1992 to 45% in 2016. Nepal has not been free from deforestation, but rather, on average, more new forests have grown up than have been cut down. Jefferson Fox, a geographer at the East-West Center in Honolulu who is the project’s principal investigator, thinks it is important to acknowledge Nepal’s forest successes, even if localised deforestation remains a problem in parts of the country.
4 September 2019—The gay Hong Kong Chinese men afraid to come out to their families, and why parents need educating to accept them, South China Morning Post: Tim Brown
Statistics show a solid majority of HIV diagnoses in Hong Kong have been in the group of men who have sex with men (MSM). Tim Brown, HIV epidemiologist from the East West Centre in Hawaii, once characterized HIV in Hong Kong as an epidemic within that group.
2 September 2019—The blackest hand in Hong Kong is Beijing's, The Japan Times: Denny Roy
China’s pressure to extend authoritarianism into Hong Kong, along with the crackdown on Uyghur nationalism in Xinjiang, help define the Xi Jinping era. Beijing is worried about a “color revolution,” will do anything necessary to pacify “Chinese” territory, and doesn’t care much what the rest of the world thinks.
20 August 2019—In Nepal, out-migration is helping fuel a forest resurgence, YaleEnvironment360: Jefferson M. Fox
Jefferson Fox, a geographer at the East-West Center at the University of Hawai'i who leads the NASA-funded team researching Nepal’s forest resurgence, says his data indicate that both community forestry and migration are associated with forest recovery, but that community forestry is the more important factor. He and his colleagues also found that variables often associated with remittance income — such as families with brick and concrete houses, indoor plumbing, and motorcycle ownership — positively correlate with forest resurgence. Fox hopes that his team’s detailed analysis of Landsat images will provide a more comprehensive picture of Nepal’s reforestation.
19 August 2019—'America’s military primacy in the Indo-Pacific is over,' Australian analysts worry, Washington Examiner: Denny Roy
“This report is part of a predictable wave of anxiety reaching the same conclusion—that U.S. strategic preeminence faces a serious challenge from China (and to a lesser degree Russia) and can no longer expect to prevail without correcting the bad habits built up during decades of comfortable dominance,” Denny Roy, a senior fellow at the East-West Center in Hawai'i, told the Washington Examiner…. “It is important that, as this report correctly notes, U.S. defense planners are working with a sense of urgency to reshape U.S. military capabilities and posture to account for what China is doing,” Roy said. “The bottom line is we would rather have the United States’ strategic problems and capabilities than China’s strategic problems and capabilities.”
19 August 2019—Trump plans to ship a fleet of F-16s to Taiwan. China isn’t happy about it, Los Angeles Times: Denny Roy
“The administration on average has a tougher and more adversarial view of China than the Obama administration,” said Denny Roy, senior fellow at the East-West Center think tank in Honolulu. “That leads to a greater willingness to treat Taiwan more as a security partner, because Taiwan’s strategic value has increased and because there is less incentive to try not to antagonize China.”
5 August 2019—Chinese diplomats encourage harassment of pro-democracy students abroad as Hong Kong protests spread, Washington Examiner: Denny Roy
As students in Australia and New Zealand protest in sympathy with the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong, Chinese diplomats are encouraging pro-Beijing counterprotesters. “In a sense this is the Chinese government’s domestic practice applied overseas,” Denny Roy, a senior fellow at the East-West Center in Hawaii, told the Washington Examiner. “But obviously there is a potential contradiction in trying to maintain a good national image while at the same time doing something disrespectful, in this case Beijing organizing activity that foreign countries will see as an outrageous intervention in their sovereign political systems…. Chinese officials behave as if China, by virtue of being a big and important country, is entitled to special consideration and privileges in its relationships with foreign countries,” Roy concurred. “Beijing’s attitude seems to be that once a partner nation realizes China is a valuable economic partner, the next step is to leverage that relationship to advance other parts of China’s agenda, and the Chinese seem to expect the partner to play ball.”
15 July 2019—The Next Long Drought, Ka Pili Kai: Abby Frazier
Abby Frazier, a research fellow at the East-West Center who studies rainfall and drought in the tropics, found that this past decade has been the driest on record for Hawai‘i in one hundred years. “Our findings show the most severe droughts are typically associated with El Niño events, and in recent decades the leeward coast of Hawai‘i Island has been the most drought-prone area in the state,” Frazier said. “Regional projections show that unusually severe dry seasons will become increasingly common on the leeward side of all Hawaiian Islands,” Frazier added.
14 July 2019—The US is not asking Singapore to side with America or against China: American diplomat, Yahoo News: Denny Roy
Dr Denny Roy, a senior fellow at the East-West Center, told Yahoo News Singapore that he concurred with views expressed by Stephanie Syptak-Ramnath, the top American diplomat in Singapore. “Countries such as Singapore should think of their response to the rivalry between the United States and China not as siding with the USA versus siding with China, but rather as supporting the international norms and institutions that provide regional states the best opportunities to achieve security and prosperity.” Dr Roy added that he did not expect small and medium powers in the region to ever face “an absolute, all-or-nothing choice” between the two big powers. “Rather they will make a large number of small choices that will accumulate over time, some reflecting China's influence and some America's influence. Gradually each country might move closer to one of the big powers without completely breaking away from the other.”
20 June 2019—China's Xi, North Korea's Kim meet, both seeking leverage with the US, The Wall Street Journal: Denny Roy
Chinese President Xi Jinping kicked off a two-day summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang that could advance the two communist allies' stalled negotiations with the US. "The U.S. should never be comfortable with the idea of China as the mediator [in talks with North Korea]," said Denny Roy, a Senior Fellow at the East-West Center. "A lot of hopes on various issues about North Korea from 2018 have been dashed in 2019."
20 June 2019—Progress on the Kim-Trump talks or a new card for China to play?, South China Morning Post: Denny Roy
Denny Roy, Senior Fellow at the East-West Center, said this week's meeting between Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un is likely to emphasize North Korea’s willingness to negotiate on denuclearization, but differences with America would remain a stumbling block. “I think in Beijing’s view that means the Americans would accept a deal more favorable to Pyongyang, one where the North Koreans get a lot of sanctions relief for little or no substantial denuclearization,” he said. “That, of course, will be a complete non-starter in Washington.”
10 June 2019—This is no way to win a trade war with China, The National Interest: Denny Roy
There is little dispute that China engages in unfair and often predatory practices to protect and promote its domestic industries. Yet most observers believe that the US attempt to use unilateral tariffs to remedy the problem will fail to achieve its intended objectives and will harm the US economy as much as China’s. Furthermore, this episode may strengthen China’s confidence that it will prevail in future tests of will.
30 May 2019—A widening China-US perception gap, EE Times: Dieter Ernst
Much damage has already been done to America’s once seemingly invincible "soft power" image. Many in the Chinese IT industry are visibly hurt by the aggressive language used in the US policy announcements. This deep sense of disappointment is even more palpable among students at China's leading universities.
29 May 2019—Trump's trip to Japan reveals some mixed signals, The Washington Post: Kristi Govella
During President Trump's recent four-day visit to Japan, he and Prime Minister Abe pulled off a showy demonstration of the bonds between their two countries. Trump's visit also revealed persistent and troubling areas of divergence, however, on issues such as trade and North Korea. The United States and Japan will eventually have to tackle these disagreements, but with this visit, that day of reckoning seems to have been postponed.
25 May 2019—Technology and politics: Huawei has been cut off from American technology, The Economist: Dieter Ernst
The US Commerce Department recently added Huawei to a list of firms with which American companies cannot do business without official permission, which amounts to a prohibition on exports of American technology to Huawei. China has already committed billions of dollars to efforts to boost its domestic capabilities in chipmaking and technology, and America’s ban highlights the urgency of that policy.
22 May 2019—China's innovation policy and the quest for semiconductor autonomy—Q&A with Dieter Ernst, American Chamber of Commerce Shanghai Newsletter: Dieter Ernst
As the rise of economic nationalism in the US interacts with the recentralization of state control in China, it is now much more difficult to identify and mobilize stakeholders in both countries who would be willing to compromise and to find areas for selective cooperation. Intensifying trade, investment, and technology conflicts are likely to dominate US-China economic relations for quite some time.
21 May 2019—Tech warfare outbreak hits China's AI, EE Times: Dieter Ernst
The damage done by the recent U.S. declaration of open technology warfare with China is likely to be serious and long lasting. All participants in the global semiconductor industry will be affected, irrespective of their nationality.
18 May 2019—America still leads in technology, but China is catching up fast, The Economist: Dieter Ernst
It is a mistake to exaggerate China’s strengths in big-data analysis and AI, according to Dieter Ernst of the East-West Center. A near-total lack of privacy protection may help sweep up lots of data, but American firms are better at advanced algorithms that make AI less dependent on big data sets. Big Chinese applications are still mostly powered by American-designed chips, which remain world-beating.
7 May 2019—Younger Okinawans' view of U.S. bases isn't black and white, The Japan Times: Charles E. Morrison
An East-West Center study of young adult Okinawans showed a broad consensus that Okinawa hosts more than its fair share of foreign military bases and that Tokyo does not give due regard to Okinawan views. There was wide support for increased access to the U.S. bases, enhanced relations between U.S. service personnel and local communities, and more dialogue on Okinawa base-related issues. The study found very little support for Okinawan independence or even special autonomy, but a strong sense of local pride coupled with resentment that Okinawa is under-appreciated elsewhere in Japan.
21 April 2019—North Korea’s latest moves show how Kim Jong-un has turned the tables on the US, South China Morning Post: Denny Roy
Pyongyang has its nuclear missile capability despite Washington’s efforts, and with help from Beijing and Moscow and a US election next year, Kim is now asserting leverage over America.
21 April 2019—Younger Okinawans are more tolerant of U.S. military presence, study finds, Honolulu Star-Advertiser: Charles E. Morrison and Daniel Chinen
Opposition to the U.S. military base presence that is so often highlighted in Okinawa, Japan, may be less widespread among a younger generation of Okinawans.
12 March 2019—The Hanoi summit: We asked Denny Roy what happens next in US-North Korea relations, The National Interest: Denny Roy
The breakdown in Hanoi suggested that sanctions—not the “peace regime,” political recognition, or US-ROK military exercises—are Pyongyang’s overwhelming concern. If Pyongyang is not willing to offer more denuclearization for sanctions relief, the current stalemate will likely continue.
11 March 2019—Failed Hanoi summit helps US and North Korea leaders fake fresh look at situation, Eurasia Review: Denny Roy
“The US side wanted lots of de-nuclearization in exchange for little sanctions relief. The North Korean side wanted lots of sanctions relief in exchange for little de-nuclearization. They couldn’t reach a mutually agreeable middle ground. The real problem was the lack of preparatory work prior to the summit, which ordinarily would produce an agreement before the top leaders meet."
9 March 2019—Change is afoot, The Garden Island: Victoria Keener
Keener pointed out projected threats to freshwater supplies; to terrestrial ecosystems, ecosystem services and biodiversity; to coastal communities and systems; to fisheries, coral reefs and other marine resources; and to culture, indigenous communities and knowledge. She emphasized the cumulative impacts, such as social costs: "The impacts are here and now.”
8 March 2019—China eyes alternative sources for maritime expansion, Voice of America: Denny Roy
The People’s Liberation Army could delay or cut back endeavors elsewhere to “maintain the pace of strengthening China's position in the South China Sea,” said Denny Roy, Senior Fellow at the East-West Center.
6 March 2019—University of Hawaii among the universities hacked by Chinese, KHON2: Eric Harwit
"The kind of research that we're doing here at UH is really some of the cutting edge work that our own Navy uses, and of course the Chinese military forces would want to know exactly what we're doing," said Eric Harwit of the East-West Center."It's not that the Chinese necessarily want to pirate our technologies, but they just want to know what we're doing so that they can develop countermeasures against them." Professor Harwit adds that Chinese hackers have been doing this for a long time. So all universities should develop more robust systems to guard against cyber attacks.
3 March 2019—What are visions for the denuclearization after second no-deal summit?, VietnamNet: Denny Roy
According to Denny Roy, a Senior Fellow at the East-West Center, Washington has the opportunity to reorient the US-North Korean relations toward a different, longer-term strategic goal: enticing North Korea out of China’s sphere of influence. In fact, the North Koreans are wary of Chinese domination. They frequently express a desire to extract themselves from over-reliance on China. The new approach would focus on cultivating a constructive working relationship with Pyongyang. This would require the US government to make early symbolic concessions to the North Koreans while accepting slow and incremental North Korean steps toward denuclearization. The US government could also agree to adjustments in US military presence on the peninsula that address North Korean complaints without substantially jeopardizing South Korea’s security.
28 February 2019—North Korea and America’s second summit: no deal, no worries, KITV: Denny Roy
Political analyst Dr. Denny Roy, an East-West Center Senior Fellow specializing in Northeast Asian affairs, assured an Oahu resident that "The danger of North Korea attacking Hawaii, with a missile or otherwise, was never great in my opinion, and is certainly now dormant." Dr. Roy says he was relieved Trump walked away from Thursday's talks. "There was a lot of worry that Trump might be suckered into making a deal that would be poor for the US but good for North Korea, because [Trump] wanted a quick win for whatever reason. But that didn't happen." The opposite happened," said Dr. Roy." While he said the US seems safe for now, he also said this is when you might want to worry: "If the North Koreans start to test again, either nuclear explosions or long range missiles, then we might get back to 2017 when things were more dicey."
9 February 2019—What's so scary about Huawei?, The Inquiry, BBC World Service: Eric Harwit
"Motorola, Lucent Technologies, those companies that were leaders just 20 years ago are pretty much out of the market because Huawei has taken over. You have companies like Cisco Systems that now have revenue that is half the size of Huawei's. They've developed chips that are more efficient, that have more function, that work better, at a price lower than Apple's, so it's not just the networking equipment. By next year, they may be the largest smartphone maker in the world. It's the economic threat that we have to worry about. That the Chinese companies are going to put some of our companies out of business, and in a way they're going to be eating our lunch."
6 February 2019—North Korea and America's second summit: Here's what Denny Roy thinks will happen, The National Interest: Denny Roy
There is little chance of a return to the high tensions of 2017 under the new conditions of 2019. For instance, China has relaxed its commitment to enforcing economic sanctions against North Korea, Seoul is enthusiastically moving to deepen North-South economic integration, and Pyongyang has stopped testing missiles and nuclear bombs. We are moving toward a new normal: North Korea as a de facto permanent nuclear weapons state, reduced tensions on the Korean Peninsula, and the chance to accelerate the Kim regime’s demise through increased exposure to South Korea’s subversive soft power.
29 January 2019—Nuclear threat grows as US prepared to withdraw from INF treaty, TruthOut: Denny Roy
At a recent international gathering of visiting nuclear arms researchers, academics, and reporters hosted by the East-West Center, Denny Roy noted increased competition between the US and China in the areas of security and economics. “We’ve even seen this competition intensify to the point where the gloves seem to be off,” he said, pointing to a shift under the Trump administration by characterizing China not as a partner-competitor, but as an unambiguous adversary. He also pointed to a bolder stance by Chinese President Xi Jinping in calling for an end to US strategic pre-eminence in global governance. Roy said the US shouldn’t take for granted what he called China’s “minimal deterrent posture” but should avoid policy steps that would “provoke China into trying to compete as vigorously in the area of numbers of nuclear weapons as China competes with the United States in lots of other areas.”
22 January 2019—Nepal should hedge, My Republica: Denny Roy
At a time when relations between great power nations are uncertain and changing, Denny Roy, Senior Fellow at the East-West Center, suggests that a small country such as Nepal might initiate military cooperation with one super power to increase assurances of cooperation (particularly economic) with a rival power.
18 January 2019—Vietnam gains bargaining power over China in conduct at sea talks, Voice of America: Denny Roy
Vietnam’s tough stance against China over sovereignty of the South China Sea will put Beijing on the defensive during regional talks on easing the regional maritime dispute. “Vietnam is in a difficult position as perhaps the country that is pushing back most vociferously against the gradual expansion of Chinese control over the South China Sea,” said Denny Roy, Senior Fellow at the East-West Center.“Hanoi must draw attention for playing the role of standing up to China,” Roy said. “Otherwise China will meet less resistance from ASEAN. In that sense Vietnamese pushback might make a difference.”
18 January 2019—Pentagon report hints at coming US-China escalation, ThinkProgress: Denny Roy
Denny Roy, Senior Fellow at the East-West Center, said there’s nothing new in how China views Taiwan. The United States, China, and Taiwan all know how to avoid direct conflict, so long as Taiwan doesn’t “make a clear move toward independence,” which the current government is unlikely to do. “The inexperience on all sides with the idea of using cyber attacks as part of a military campaign injects a wildcard, however,” Roy added.
9 January 2019—Kim Jong Un's visit to China preludes second Trump-Kim summit: China's role crucial, Straits Times: Denny Roy
Dr Denny Roy, a Senior Fellow at the East West Center in Honolulu, was pessimistic about a positive outcome from a second Trump-Kim summit. The most likely result would be "each government again claiming a victorious breakthrough, with little if any substantive change in the factors that created the crisis except Trump dropping the threat to take preventive military action against North Korea", he told the Straits Times.
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